By Emily Richmond

Thu, Sep 22, 2005 (11:12 a.m.)

More than 5,300 fewer students than expected have enrolled so far in Clark County schools, a shortfall that could potentially cost the district millions in state funding.

Clark County School District officials emphasized Wednesday that there are no plans to cut student programs or services to make up for the reduction in state support.

The projected enrollment for the 2005-06 academic year -- on which the School District based its budget -- was 295,615. As of Wednesday Clark County's enrollment was 290,241.

The effect of the lower enrollment won't be known until the official statewide "count" takes place Friday. For every 1,000 of the expected students who do not show up, the district will lose out on $4.3 million in state funding.

The district receives $4,303 per pupil in funding from the state.

Walt Rulffes, interim superintendent and the district's chief financial officer, said if 5,000 fewer students enroll, the district will receive $21.5 million less in state funding. Because the district staffed at 98 percent of projections for the new academic year, the district built in a $10 million cushion, meaning if there is a shortfall that cushion is expected to absorb part of it.

Rulffes said he decided when drafting the 2005-06 budget to set staffing level at 98 percent because he was apprehensive about the district hitting the enrollment projection.

Under-staffing can be risky because it means more teacher vacancies to fill in the fall, Rulffes said. But when enrollment projections are off, as they appear to be this time around, the gamble pays off, Rulffes said.

If the district does have to make up the difference in the budget, which could be as high as $11.5 million after the staffing savings are deducted, the money would come from areas other than student programs, Rulffes said.

"There will be belt-tightening," Rulffes said. "But it will be in the areas of discretionary spending -- travel, professional services and filling some of our less essential vacancies."

Sharon Dattoli, acting director of zoning and demographics for the district, said the reason for the lower enrollment isn't clear.

The district's enrollment predictions are typically spot-on, sometimes coming within a few hundred students of the official count. A glaring exception was in 2002, when 3,830 fewer students showed up for school, leaving the district with a $14.6 million hole in the budget.

All but $2.7 million of that shortfall was immediately offset by the district's earlier decision to staff at 98.5 percent.

In 2002 district officials blamed residual ripples from 9/11 on the decreased enrollment. This time around there's anecdotal evidence that rising home prices were a factor, Dattoli said.

She and one of her assistants went out last week and toured some of the high-growth areas of the Las Vegas Valley, noting prices for both new and resale homes.

"When you look at these homes, we're talking tiny homes, for $280,000, clearly there are going to be a lot of families priced out of the market," Dattoli said.

Another puzzle for the district is kindergarten enrollment. As of last week 22,107 children had been enrolled, about 400 students fewer than anticipated.

From September 1999 to September 2000, the county recorded 21,349 live births, an increase of 2,169 over the prior year. By comparison the county's birth rate jumped by just 200 from 1998 to 1999. And from 2000 to 2001 the birth rate was up by 761.

"Those millennial babies turned 5 before Sept. 30 (the state-mandated cutoff for kindergarten enrollment)," Dattoli said. "So far we can't find anything data-related to explain why those students haven't shown up yet. It's really stumping us."

Kindergarten enrollment was also expected to increase this year with the expansion of the district's tuition-based program to 30 schools.

There's typically an increase in school enrollment after Mexico's Independence Day, which fell last Friday, as students who may have remained with family in Mexico to enjoy the holiday begin their return to Clark County, Dattoli said.

The enrollment increase between last year's Mexican holiday and "count day" was not immediately available.

Clark County's student enrollment has grown between 4 and 7 percent for each of the last 10 years, making it the nation's fifth-largest and fastest-growing school district. Based on the most current head count, enrollment is up 3.4 percent over the 2004-05 academic year.

The district isn't alone in seeing lower enrollment. In Washoe County just 117 new students have enrolled this year, far below the 1,370 estimated, according to a report in the Reno Gazette-Journal. Washoe School Board trustees will meet next week to discuss plans to make up the estimated $6 million budget shortfall, including the possibility of layoffs.