Valley still the fastest growing metropolitan area in nation

Tuesday, Sept. 6, 2005 | 11:46 a.m.

SUN STAFF AND WIRE REPORTS

The Las Vegas Valley remains the fastest growing metropolitan area in the nation, according to the results of a Brookings Instition analysis of the most recent census data available.

The analysis, released today by the Washington, D.C.-based think tank, found that the valley has continued to grow rapidly while growth in other major metropolitan areas such as Boston and San Francisco have slowed down since the end of the 1990s.

Spillover residents from tight housing markets and congestion in California paired with affordable housing and a general interest from people around the country to live in Las Vegas have kept it at the top, said William Frey, a demographer with Brookings who wrote the report.

"From the days of Bugsy Siegel, it sure has mushroomed," Frey said.

The surge in the Las Vegas-area's population is not attributable mainly to immigration, as is the case in other areas, the report notes. Rather, the valley has experienced a large influx of "domestic migration," meaning people already living in the United States move to Las Vegas, according to the report.

From 2000 to 2004, the Las Vegas area's population grew by 18.5 percent, the largest rate of any metro area. From 1990 to 2000, it grew by 85.5 percent, also the highest.

Over the last four decades, the area has grown by 1,200 percent, from 127,000 to 1.6 million, according to the study "Metro America in the New Century: Metropolitan and Central City Demographic Shifts Since 2000."

Frey said at some point Southern Nevada's growth will "hit the wall." Eventually, the region may not be able to supply enough water to sustain its growth, he said.

But the more immediate and apparent threats are escalating housing prices and traffic congestion. If the same type of traffic congestion and high housing prices that have hit California come to Las Vegas, the growth will slow down, Frey said.

Soaring housing prices have driven Californians farther inland -- but not out of the state -- with four of that state's interior metropolitan areas among the 10 fastest growing in the nation, according to the Brookings' study.

The shift propelled the Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario area into the nation's second-fastest growing spot, with an increase of 15.7 percent from 2000 to last year, according to the study.

The nation's fourth-fastest population growth was in Stockton, while the Sacramento area ranked ninth, and Bakersfield 10th.

Meanwhile, the Los Angeles region ranked 44th among the 88 metro areas, growing by just 4.2 percent as it continued to serve both as a major port of entry for immigrants and a conduit for people moving to outlying regions.

"People are wanting to stay in California, but know they can't afford the coast," Frey said. "Before, they moved to Washington, Oregon, Nevada or Arizona. Now there's the realization they can live in California and make the long commute and people are making that trade-off."

While many people are unable to afford housing in L.A., San Francisco or other coastal cities where prices have soared, they have increasingly begun buying homes inland in anticipation of realizing equity gains there as well.

The Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario area had more people move into it -- mainly from L.A. -- than any other metro area in the country, gaining 325,842 new arrivals between 2000 and 2004, according to the study.

During the same period, 471,118 people moved out of the L.A. metropolitan region -- which served as a conduit for inland communities' growth taking in 512,282 immigrants, second only to the New York region.

"There's still this glow and glamour, this aura to California," Frey said. "People feel if they stay, they'll see their equity rise."

Jack Kyser, chief economist for the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp., said soaring coastal home prices are pushing people inland, where prices also are rising.

In Riverside County, for example, the median price of a home in June was $369,141 -- but the median price of a new home was $408,000, driven by construction of bigger, more expensive homes and "impact fees" that developers pass on to buyers to pay for schools, police, fire and other services.

The pressure is being felt on the freeways, with more people clogging the roads because they are willing to make "horrendous" commutes to buy a home they can afford but that may be miles from their workplace, he said.

The East Coast is experiencing a similar shift, the study found, as cities such as Boston moved onto the list of slowest-growing metropolitan areas, while areas such as Albany, N.Y.; Hartford, Conn.; and Providence, R.I., saw growth.

While major metro areas so far continue to see gains, albeit slower, the shifting population patterns could have long-term consequences if the areas want to sustain economic growth.

In California, Kyser said, coastal counties and Los Angeles in particular used land "willy nilly" and eventually may be forced to consider redeveloping "locked" areas such as inner-city neighborhoods with high crime and poor schools if the problems cannot be resolved.