Columnist Jon Ralston: Gibbons remains the favorite

Saturday, Sept. 3, 2005 | 3 a.m.

Jon Ralston hosts the news discussion program Face to Face on Las Vegas ONE and publishes the Ralston Report. He can be reached at (702) 870-7997 or at ralston@vegas.com.

WEEKEND EDITION

September 3-5, 2005

Jim Gibbons is all but a pariah among his fellow Nevada elected officials -- many don't like or trust him. Jim Gibbons is not particularly cherished by leaders of the House -- he has repeatedly been snubbed, including for the job he really coveted, chairman of the Intelligence Committee. Jim Gibbons gave an announcement speech last week that was rhetorical mush and thoroughly uninspiring -- validating his critics who say he is not a man of substance.

And Jim Gibbons also is the man to beat in the race for the state's most important office.

Welcome to the world of politics, where you don't have to be liked by your peers to be loved by voters, where if you vote right, the elections will be won, where if you have the money, you don't require the gravitas.

Rep. Gibbons, who two years ago could have beaten Sen. Harry Reid but declined, who a year ago wanted the Intelligence Committee chairmanship but was rejected, last week began his campaign for acceptance as Kenny Guinn's successor. He may not be, as the last two governors were, anointed by the state's power structure. But the only reason Gibbons is not seen as the prohibitive favorite is the prospect of Chancellor Jim Rogers spending seven figures to destroy him. The question is how far Rogers will go, how effective his campaign will be and whether it could backfire.

Gibbons also has to prove that recent, albeit inside baseball slip-ups -- his intemperate remark about inaugural protesters being communists, his pilfering of a right-wing screed from an obscure Alabama official and his bizarre, gaffe-filled speech before a Las Vegas Rotary Club -- are aberrations. Since he burst on the statewide scene 11 years ago, Gibbons has been known as a superb, disciplined campaigner. But no one has looked at him much since he was elected to Congress in 1996, and now that he is on display again, he will have to perform as he did in the '94 governor's race. Or maybe he won't, for two reasons: demographics and money.

Gibbons is the only candidate in the contest with a sizable political base -- people from every part of the state have been voting for him for a decade.

His vote-drawing power is potent and the numbers are staggering. Gibbons outdrew President Bush, where they were on the same ballot, by 23,000 votes.

He defeated Reid when they were together by 37,000 votes. Yes, Gibbons has not had a race, well, ever. But these folks have been voting for him for, well, ever.

Equally important is the way of Nevada for Democrats in recent elections. It is no accident that Republicans hold all six constitutional offices. To make the electoral math work, a Democratic candidate has to hold a gargantuan lead coming out of Clark County to compensate for the hemorrhaging in the high-turnout rural counties and GOP Washoe County.

Remember the reason Reid feared Gibbons so much is that unlike some GOP contenders, who don't run as strongly as they should in Washoe County, Gibbons is a proven and formidable vote-getter there.

If the demographics are daunting, the money is equally so. Gibbons has about $2 million on hand and my guess that is more than the rest of the field combined. And he is not about to stop fund-raising. Money begets money and Gibbons leads in all of the polls, so major donors will keep giving and giving and giving. That's what makes the candidacy of state Sen. Bob Beers, intriguing though it may be, and that of Lt. Gov. Lorraine Hunt, invisible though it may be, so difficult.

And whether or not Speaker Richard Perkins enters the race on the Democratic side, it's still likely that whoever emerges from that primary will have had to spend a significant amount of his or her war chest to win.

What's so interesting about this race, though, is that while all of the tangible factors favor Gibbons, most of the intangibles do not. Those include Rogers, whose money could weaken Gibbons for the general or help oust him in the primary. But there are others, too.

Beers reminds me, ironically enough, of Gibbons, circa 1994. That year the GOP powers that be anointed and funded a woman named Cheryl Lau, then secretary of state. Gibbons was a relatively unknown assemblyman given little chance, but his relentless campaign style and work ethics helped him crush Lau by nearly 22,000 votes. Beers has an engaging style on the trail and he not only has the relentlessness, he has an initiative called Tax and Spending Control for Nevada to boost his name recognition. He may seem like Gibbons Lite to some Republicans, but don't dismiss him just yet.

Hunt is well-liked but few in the GOP take her seriously as a candidate for governor. But might she be the beneficiary of a Beers-Gibbons tiff over who is the most conservative? Unlikely but possible.

There are other intangibles, too -- if the national picture doesn't look good for the GOP, that will hurt Gibbons, and running with his wife, who is running for his seat, could unleash a backlash. Gibbons also does not have the support of Guinn, who remains relatively popular.

But the other candidates would need all of those intangibles to fall their way considering the inarguable power of the tangibles. Gibbons may not win a popularity contest among his peers, he may not give a rousing speech (even when it is his own) and he may try to have it both ways on increased funding for education (yes) and restricting government spending (yes!).

But elections are not about character or issues. They are about demographics and money. And both of those favor Jim Gibbons, like him or not, like it or not, becoming the next governor.