Columnist Jeff Haney: Talk straight from horse’s mouth, Tuley

Friday, Oct. 28, 2005 | 7:24 a.m.

In the tricky, sometimes maddening, pursuit of picking winners in thoroughbred racing, not many people have a stronger track record than Dave Tuley of Las Vegas.

In each of the past three years Tuley, a handicapper and local correspondent for the Daily Racing Form, has publicly released his top pick in each of the eight annual Breeders' Cup races.

Winners he has predicted include Domedriver in the 2002 Breeders' Cup Mile (which paid $54 for a $2 bet); Volponi in the 2002 Classic ($89); Six Perfections in the 2003 Mile ($12.60); and Wilko in last year's Juvenile ($58.60).

Although his past success certainly does not guarantee future results, considering it would have cost only $48 to place a $2 wager in each of those 24 races, that's an impressive rate of return.

"I like to think some of it's skill, but I also got a little lucky the last couple of years," Tuley said.

Tuley's strategy is not to choose the most likely winner of a race -- which is often the betting favorite -- but rather a horse that has a legitimate chance of winning while offering good value in the betting line. Or, as he calls it, "the most bang for the buck."

That usually puts him on a long shot.

With the 22nd edition of the Breeders' Cup scheduled for Saturday at Belmont Park in New York, Tuley has been analyzing the eight races on the card, which this year carry purses totaling $15 million.

Along with the Triple Crown races in the spring, the Breeders' Cup is one of the busiest days of the year at Nevada's race books.

The consensus among horseplayers says the Breeders' Cup Classic -- North America's richest horse race, with a $4.68 million purse -- is missing some of its luster this year.

Afleet Alex, a popular 3-year-old who won the Preakness and Belmont, will miss the Classic because of injury.

Ghostzapper, another fan favorite who won last year's Classic, has been retired by his owners.

Even with the absence of those two racing stars, Tuley sees Saturday's Classic as a good betting race.

Tuley is backing Flower Alley, a 10-1 shot, in the Classic. Trained by Todd Pletcher, Flower Alley finished second in the Dwyer Stakes at Belmont and won the Jim Dandy and the Travers at Saratoga this summer. He then ran fourth in the Jockey Club Gold Cup after going off as the betting favorite.

"When a horse loses as a favorite, it tells you the quality is there but he just didn't fire that day," Tuley said.

Horse of the Year candidate Lost in the Fog will probably go off as the biggest favorite on the card Saturday. An undefeated 3-year-old, Lost in the Fog was installed at odds of even money to win the Breeders' Cup Sprint after Wednesday's post-position draw.

"I'm going to try to beat him," said Tuley, who recommends a play on 12-1 shot Taste of Paradise in the Sprint. "Lost in the Fog hasn't faced this kind of quality field yet. He'll be pressed on the lead more than he's used to, and I don't think he'll be able to go wire-to-wire."

Tuley sees quick-starting horses driving the pace early in the Sprint, which could set up well for a closer such as Taste of Paradise, who recently won the Vosburgh at Belmont as a 26-1 shot.

Tuley likes another closer in the Breeders' Cup Turf, recommending a wager on long shot Silverfoot.

Saturday's Turf race could play out much like this summer's United Nations Handicap at Monmouth Park. In that race, 106-1 long shot Shake the Bank was entered as a "rabbit," setting a rapid early pace for stablemate Better Talk Now, who bided his time and then thundered to victory down the stretch -- just three-quarters of a length in front of Silverfoot.

Shake the Bank (99-1), Better Talk Now (8-1) and Silverfoot (30-1) will meet again Saturday.

"Silverfoot will be closing strong along with Better Talk Now," Tuley said. "Since Better Talk Now is only 8-1, I see more value with the long shot."

Tuley and fellow handicappers Ralph Siraco and Richard Eng will analyze the Breeders' Cup at a seminar from 7 to 9 tonight in the Concorde Ballroom at Paris Las Vegas. It will air on KSHP 1400-AM.