Columnist Jon Ralston: Who will get their money’s worth?

Sunday, Oct. 23, 2005 | 10:14 a.m.

And so it begins: The Sonorous One vs. The Southern One. Low Key vs. High Energy. Well Done vs. Raw Meat.

If Democratic primary voters want a contrast, Henderson Mayor Jim Gibson versus Senate Minority Leader Dina Titus is as stark as it gets. Conventional wisdom says that Titus is the best Democratic primary candidate and Gibson is the best Democratic general election contender.

But in a race that already has proven mercurial before the even-numbered year is upon us and where happier mayors than Gibson could still change the dynamic, will anything be conventional about this race?

And do either of these Democrats really stand a chance against the likely Republican nominee for governor, Rep. Jim Gibbons, in this reddening state?

With 10 months to go and Gibson now officially in the race, let's (dangerously) assume Mayor Oscar Goodman doesn't get in and take a look at what will decide this contest.

What we know is that Titus will continue to tie Gibson to Republicans he has supported (Gov. Kenny Guinn, Rep. Jon Porter) to try to persuade the true believers who vote in primaries that the Henderson mayor is not one of them.

Gibson will try to deflect such criticism by focusing on his stewardship of a dynamic, growing community and his support for many Democrats.

Fine. Titus already has undermined her argument by her campaign manager's statement to the Reno Gazette-Journal that she accepted money from Republicans during her career -- an argument that says it's better to receive than to give?

But Gibson helped make Titus' case last week on "Face to Face" when he said if Roe v. Wade were overturned, he would as governor propose legislation to conform to his belief that abortions should be legal only in the case of rape, incest or the mother's life being threatened.

That will be an issue to some Democratic primary voters. But how many?

Like most elections, especially primaries, this one probably will not be won or lost on issues but on money and demographics.

Titus has done a fairly impressive job of fund raising and hopes to have seven figures in the bank by the first reporting period early next year. If she makes it, no one will be able to mutter that she can't be viable.

Gibson has many friends in the major donor community who think he is the best shot at defeating Gibbons but worry about Gibson's primary viability.

If Gibson can dramatically outpace Titus in the money chase and deftly handle any questions about working for Nevada Power, the monorail and who knows who else, he will gain momentum.

So once the candidates have the money, whose votes can they buy?

Certain special interests will be critical. Some will argue that labor may decide this race. Some key union folks are sitting on their hands because they are terrified of a Gibbons governorship and panicked that Titus can't beat him. What will they do?

Even though they represent a small percentage of registered voters -- barely in double digits, if that -- Mormons are considered a factor, especially in a low-turnout race. Will many switch to the Democratic Party just to vote for fellow LDS member Gibson?

Even though we Southern-centric folks like to think Clark County is the key, about 125,000 Democrats live in the rest of the state. Can Gibson exploit Titus' intemperate remarks about Northern Nevada? Or are some of those northern Democrats too liberal for Gibson?

Perhaps none of this will matter. Perhaps this analysis is too cold, too cynical. Perhaps this contest will be decided by which contender more forcefully and honestly takes on the fundamental question of how to fund the state's needs as the anti-tax rumbles grow louder.

Perhaps not.