Friday, Oct. 21, 2005 | 7:15 a.m.
Jeff Haney can be reached at (702) 259-4041 or [email protected].
A dominant starting pitching staff will lead the Chicago White Sox to victory in a World Series that's competitively priced on the betting line, Las Vegas sports handicapper James Kruger projects.
"I like the White Sox in six games," Kruger said. "It comes down to the Big Four pitchers for the White Sox against the Big Three of Houston."
The White Sox opened a minus-120 favorite Thursday at the Stardust to win the best-of-seven World Series, meaning bettors risk $1.20 for each $1 they're trying to win on Chicago. The Houston Astros opened at even money.
Kruger thinks Chicago's rotation of Jose Contreras, Mark Buehrle, Jon Garland and Freddy Garcia has an edge against Houston's top three of Andy Pettitte, Roy Oswalt and Roger Clemens.
In Game 1 Saturday, Contreras and the White Sox are favored by minus-135 against Clemens and the Astros. The over/under in Game 1 is listed at 7 or 7 1/2 runs in Las Vegas, an indication that oddsmakers expect a low-scoring World Series.
"There's a little bit of a concern that the White Sox come in with a rusty bullpen," Kruger said. "But the White Sox have better pitching overall, they have more pop in their bats and they have home-field advantage."
While Houston's starters have been outstanding for much of the season, Kruger said he has detected some slippage in the late-season performances of Clemens and Oswalt -- a factor that might not be accounted for in the betting line, he said.
In his starts since September, Kruger said, Clemens has allowed 20 earned runs in 38 innings pitched, an ERA of 4.74. In his last nine outings, Clemens has pitched as many as seven innings only once.
Kruger also favors the White Sox in the managerial matchup, preferring Ozzie Guillen against Phil Garner.
"Normally, I don't like to play on an overly rested team, but I think Ozzie will have them fired up," Kruger said.
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Colorado State is favored by 3 points against Wyoming in a Mountain West Conference clash Saturday, and Kruger makes a compelling case for backing the host Rams at the betting window.
"Some people might not realize it, but this is a huge, very heated rivalry," said Kruger, online at vegassportsauthority.com.
Wyoming (4-3) has failed to cover the point spread in its past two games after covering its first five this season. The Cowboys are coming off consecutive outright losses, to TCU and New Mexico, in which they were favored.
Colorado State (3-3) is led by quarterback Justin Holland and running back Kyle Bell.
They'll go up against Wyoming quarterback Corey Bramlet, who has been prone to turnovers in recent outings -- against TCU, he threw four interceptions and fumbled three times. Bramlet also threw two interceptions against New Mexico.
Although Bramlet certainly was not blameless in those losses, he might be feeling let down by his supporting cast, Kruger suggested.
"Like Curly of the Three Stooges, he's probably saying, I'm a victim of circumstance," Kruger said.
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Just one NFL game in the past 20 years closed on the betting board with a "total," or over/under, of less than 31 points, according to oddsmaker Simon Noble of offshore book Pinnacle Sports.
That was in 1994, when the total in a game between the Chicago Bears and the Arizona Cardinals went off at 30 1/2 points. The Bears beat the Cardinals 19-16, so gamblers who bet the "over" cashed tickets.
Sunday's game between the Bears and the Baltimore Ravens could match or break that mark. The game's total stands at 30 1/2 in most Las Vegas sports books and has been heading down after opening at 32.
At Pinnacle, Noble reported that professional bettors, or "wise guys," played under 32 when the line was first posted. The wise guys are neutral on the current number of 30 1/2, Noble said.
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The 2005-06 edition of the annual Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook is available at the Gambler's Book Shop (630 S. 11th St.), the store's marketing director Howard Schwartz said.
A perennial best seller at the store, the Blue Ribbon contains no information on point spreads or gambling, but is valued by bettors for its comprehensive coverage of Division I college basketball, Schwartz said.
"It has the strengths and weaknesses of hundreds and hundreds of teams," Schwartz said. "It's the most important book on college basketball for coaches, players, bettors, bookmakers, sportscasters, whoever."
This year's edition has more than 300 pages and sells for $21.95.
Jeff Haney can be reached at 259-4041 or [email protected].
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