Thursday, Oct. 20, 2005 | 7:31 a.m.
SAVANNAH, Ga. -- An independent aviation forecast says Las Vegas' McCarran International Airport will be one of the fastest growing airports in the country in the next six years.
The growth of the Las Vegas area coupled with planned fleet expansions by low-cost air carriers serving the local market will result in double-digit percentage growth over the next year and through 2011, according to an airport forecast by the Boyd Group, an aviation consulting firm based in Evergreen, Colo.
The forecast was made on the final day of the 10th annual Aviation Forecast Conference in Savannah, Ga., this week.
Boyd Group President Mike Boyd said Las Vegas would be the third-fastest growing hub airport in the country from 2004 to 2006 with 12.4 percent more enplanements in that period. The airport could anticipate 24.9 percent growth between 2004 and 2011, making it the fourth fastest-rowing airport in the nation during that time.
At that pace, McCarran would see an additional 5 million passengers by 2011, Boyd said.
Additional growth is being fueled by the continued success of Southwest Airlines, which is expanding its fleet, and by US Airways, which uses McCarran as one of its hubs.
In short-term growth, McCarran trails Philadelphia and Salt Lake City in the forecast.
Philadelphia is benefiting from Southwest, which has focused on that city for expansion as a strategic move when US Airways downsized operations there, Boyd said.
Salt Lake City is expected to grow in the short term because Delta Air Lines is de-emphasizing operations elsewhere and is expected to take advantage of its strength in that market.
In the long term, Las Vegas is behind Philadelphia, Atlanta and Phoenix.
Phoenix should grow for the same reasons Las Vegas is growing, while Atlanta is expected to benefit from the expected emergence of Delta from bankruptcy protection and the expansion of discounter AirTran Airways, both of which have major presences in Atlanta, Boyd said.
By total enplanements, Las Vegas trails Atlanta, Dallas-Fort Worth and Phoenix. Dallas should benefit from expected expansions by American Airlines, which is expected to increase its international flying to help maximizing profits.
The Boyd forecast comes as no surprise to McCarran officials, who have been gearing up for growth even before 9/11 slowed the aviation industry down.
"We've been tracking at about 7 percent growth this year and have been prepared with added capacity," said Rosemary Vassiliadis, deputy director of the Clark County Aviation Department, which oversees McCarran operations.
Through August, McCarran has had 29.6 million passengers, a 6.7 percent increase over record-breaking 2004. The airport is expected to easily eclipse its record 41.4 million passenger count from last year.
Vassiliadis said McCarran carefully monitors resort expansions and has developed a formula to determine how many passengers will use the airport.
"We've pretty much got it down that for every new room added, we'll get 160 passengers coming in and 160 going out (annually)," she said.
A new wing of gates opened earlier this year, and construction is to begin next year on a fourth wing, which is expected to open in 2007.
Vassiliadis also said McCarran has been able to accommodate growth from its two largest carriers by offering flexibility in terminal usage. The airport's common-use technology enables, for example, Southwest to operate flights from the B gates in addition to the C gates, where the airline dominates the terminal.
Much of US Airways' growth has come from additional flights during the day, and the airline has as much capacity as it needs in the A and B gates. US Airways, formerly America West Airlines, is busiest after 8 p.m. and could someday dispatch flights from the C gates late at night when Southwest's schedule slows down.
McCarran officials figure that the airport, when built out, would have a capacity of about 53 million people per year. As the airport gets closer to that level, county officials expect to begin moving on developing a new airport south of Las Vegas in the Ivanpah Valley, near Jean.
Boyd said growth forecasts for Las Vegas and Phoenix are based on the assumption that both cities will find solutions to potential water-shortage problems and continue to experience growth in their industries.
Brian Simpson, a Boyd Group analyst, said base demand depends on economic and population growth and incorporates capacity and pricing components.
Las Vegas generally has received additional capacity from airlines and the prevalence of low-cost carriers has kept ticket prices down.
Richard N. Velotta can be reached at 259-4061 or at velotta@ lasvegassun.com.
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