Tue, Oct 18, 2005 (8:46 a.m.)

If you like the weather the valley had Monday, you should enjoy it while you can because the region is expected to have a relatively warm and dry winter.

Last week the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced the 2005-2006 national winter outlook, projecting weather patterns for December, January and February.

While most of the nation is expected to be warmer, the rain and snowfall outlook is less certain, forecasters said.

Drier-than-normal conditions are expected across the Southwest along with warmer temps.

Forecasters noted that for the sixth year in a row, drought remains a concern for parts of the Northwest and northern Rocky Mountains, which could affect conditions on the Colorado River that feeds Lake Mead. The lake supplies 90 percent of the valley's drinking water.

"That's the main water source for Southern Nevada," said David Mitchell, a climatologist at the Western Regional Climate Center in Reno. "This is not good for Las Vegas."

There will still be pockets of winter weather, including cold temperatures, snow and ice, said retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher Jr., NOAA administrator and undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere.

Forecasters said they do not expect either a warming of the Pacific Ocean, triggering El Nino conditions, or cooler ocean temperatures that would usher in La Nina. El Nino, which occurs around Christmas, sometimes increases rainfall in Southern California and Southern Nevada.

But there is no sign of either warmer central Pacific waters or a cool down.

Kelly Richmond, a Western Regional Climate Center forecaster, calls the current climate conditions "La Nada," Spanish for "the nothing."

Mary Manning can be reached at 259-4065 or at manning@ lasvegassun.com.

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