Columnist Jeff Haney: Corrales-Castillo: Bettors put money where opinions are

Friday, Oct. 7, 2005 | 7:20 a.m.

Betting lines from previous fights

Muhammad Ali-Joe Frazier

First fight, Frazier won as a minus-120 favorite (risk $1.20 to win $1 on Frazier); second fight, Ali won as a 3-2 favorite; third fight, Ali won as a minus-180 favorite

Aaron Pryor vs. Alexis Arguello

First fight, Pryor won as a 2-1 underdog; second fight, Pryor won as a 2-1 favorite

Ray Mancini vs. Livingstone Bramble

First fight, Bramble won as a 4-1 underdog; second fight, Bramble won as a 5-2 favorite

Riddick Bowe vs. Evander Holyfield

First fight, Bowe won as a plus-115 underdog (win $1.15 for each $1 wagered on Bowe); second fight, Holyfield won as a 5-2 underdog; third fight, Bowe won as a 7-2 favorite

Evander Holyfield vs. Mike Tyson

First fight, Holyfield won as an underdog of between 5-1 and 25-1; second fight, Holyfield won as a plus-160 underdog

Oscar De La Hoya vs. Shane Mosley

First fight, Mosley won as a 5-2 underdog; second fight, Mosley won as a 5-2 underdog

Marco Antonio Barrera-Erik Morales

First fight, Morales won as a 4-1 favorite; second fight, Barrera won as a 3-2 favorite; third fight, Barrera won as a 2-1 underdog

Diego Corrales vs. Jose Luis Castillo

First fight, Corrales won as a minus-140 favorite; second fight, Corrales is a minus-130 favorite Saturday at the Thomas & Mack Center

In some prizefights, the betting action is divided straight down an imaginary line.

On one side are the professional gamblers -- or "wise guys" -- who make a few extremely large wagers on one fighter, usually the betting favorite.

On the other side are the recreational gamblers -- or "the rest of us" -- who balance the action by making a whole lot of much smaller bets on the other fighter, usually the underdog.

Last year's matchup between Bernard Hopkins and Oscar De La Hoya was certainly one of those fights and, to a lesser extent, so was last May's middleweight clash between Felix Trinidad and Winky Wright.

Saturday night's world lightweight championship bout between Diego Corrales and Jose Luis Castillo at the Thomas & Mack Center is not one of those fights.

"I don't see this as a wise-guy fight," said John Avello, race and sports book director at Wynn Las Vegas. "It's a fight where there are strong, valid opinions on both sides. I'm seeing people back up those opinions on both sides."

The betting line on the fight, a rematch of Corrales' thrilling 10th-round stoppage of Castillo on May 7, has reflected that split opinion, Avello said.

Wynn Las Vegas opened Corrales a minus-130 favorite (bettors risk $1.30 for each $1 they're trying to win), briefly bumped him up to minus-135, then brought it back to minus-130 when money on Castillo came in.

Corrales is currently a minus-130 favorite, with Castillo a plus-110 underdog (bettors win $1.10 for each $1 they risk). The round proposition asks whether the fight will last 9 1/2 rounds, with a price of minus-150 that it will go at least that long.

"Those were the only line moves we've had, because we've been drawing pretty good two-way action," Avello said. "If we can keep that two-way action coming, it would be ideal for us."

The odds at Wynn Las Vegas are among the most generous for Corrales bettors. Other sports books in Las Vegas, including Station Casinos and the Hard Rock, have Corrales listed as a minus-140 favorite. At some offshore books, the price on Corrales is even higher, around minus-145.

Corrales was also a small favorite the first time around in a fight that generated two-way betting action.

"People are hungry for a great fight," Avello said. "This one definitely has the mystique of a big fight, the kind of fight that brings people out."

In a poll of media members conducted before the first fight between Corrales and Castillo, I predicted a victory for Castillo.

My gambler's mentality influenced the selection.

I determined the skills of the fighters were evenly matched and saw the outcome as a tossup, yet knew I could get "plus money" -- about $1.30 for each $1 wagered -- on the underdog Castillo.

For about 30 seconds in the 10th round that night at Mandalay Bay, I was a genius, a regular "sharp." A battered Corrales had just been knocked to the canvas twice in succession.

That was before he rallied for his dramatic victory.

Then I was the guy in the old cartoon with hundred-dollar bills sprouting wings above his head.

In Saturday's fight between the two, I'm going with Castillo again. The odds are similar. And so is my reasoning.

Steve Cofield, host of the daily "Wise Guys" show on KENO 1460-AM and a boxing handicapper for the Vegasinsider.com Web site, agrees.

"It's a combination of the two -- I like the price, and I think Castillo is going to win the fight," Cofield told me. "It's one of those fights where you can't definitively say one guy is better than the other."

Each fighter has said the rematch could be a virtual replay of the first bout.

"Both of these guys are so resilient, and they do nothing but come right at each other," said Cofield, who recommends betting the fight will go at least 9 1/2 rounds.

It is possible that Joe Goossen, Corrales' superb trainer, has something up his garishly colored sleeve for Saturday night. Maybe his strategy is to have Corrales take control by keeping Castillo at a distance and using his jab more.

But I'm nothing if not a value bettor. I don't dream of hitting Megabucks. I dream of flipping a coin an infinite number of times, having to pay $1 each time I lose but earning $1.30 each time I win.

In a fight in which each man has a proven ability to hurt the other at virtually any given time, I will look for any excuse to bet the underdog.

Give me Castillo and as much "plus money" as you can find.

Besides, a Castillo victory would conjure the magic word that falls trippingly from the tongues of boxing fans, promoters and pay-per-view operators alike.

Trilogy.