Columnist Jeff Haney: Movie themes inspiring pro football handicappers and how the pros and public fared

Monday, Oct. 3, 2005 | 9:18 a.m.

Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Monday, Wednesday and Friday. Reach him at (702) 259-4041 or haney@lasvegassun.com.

The term "NFL Films" took on new meaning this weekend as a handful of football handicappers showed they were nearly as concerned with celluloid heroes as with the gridiron variety.

Their creative analysis of a couple of headlining pro football matchups was, in each case, underscored by solid gambling reasoning.

Bill Krackman, a handicapper and gaming columnist, punctuated his remarks on Sunday's Houston Texans-Cincinnati Bengals game by calling it his "Let It Ride" game of the week.

In a scene from that 1989 horse racing movie, the character played by Richard Dreyfuss asks everyone he can find which horse they like in a particular race, crosses out their selections one by one and then bets on the lone remaining horse.

"I haven't met anybody who likes the Houston Texans," Krackman said Friday night at the Riviera. "They are the last ones not crossed off the list."

The Texans, 10-point underdogs against the resurgent Bengals, were a good bet for that very reason, Krackman said. Often in NFL wagering, it can be profitable to take a stand against the flow of public sentiment -- and public money at the betting windows. The Texans lost 16-10, covering the number.

Can anyone explain the strange fascination among Las Vegas gambling figures with "The Princess Bride?"

There's a prominent professional gambler in Las Vegas who goes by the name "Fezzik," and he gleefully acknowledges he adopted the handle from the character in "The Princess Bride" played by Andre Rousimmoff -- known and loved by sports fans as "the Giant."

On Saturday night at the Stardust, Imperial Palace sports book manager Rich Dressler also referred to the 1987 adventure film in his analysis of Sunday's Washington Redskins-Seattle Seahawks game.

Playing off the movie character Fezzik's slow-witted and easily confused nature, Dressler made a case for each team by reeling off a set of obscure -- and contradictory -- trends and angles that would supposedly predict which team would cover the spread.

It was a clever way of pointing out that in order to find winning bets consistently, you have to work hard and dig deeply beneath the surface.

Just as Tommy, Jimmy and the other "Goodfellas" did -- in a quite literal sense.

Las Vegas handicapper Patrick Bartucci referenced that Scorsese classic in his analysis of the Bengals-Texans game. Curious as to the last time the Bengals were favored by double digits, Bartucci discovered it was in 1990 -- when, as he noted, "Goodfellas" was a box office, ahem, hit.

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BREAKING IT DOWN

Leroy's "Money Talks" football handicapping contest

This invitational features 16 handicappers who each put up $2,500 to compete in a single-elimination tournament. Leroy's adds another $10,000 to the prize pool for a total of $50,000. The winner collects $40,000, with $10,000 going to the runner-up. Each week, two contestants make seven selections against the point spread from the weekend's college and pro football games, working with a mythical bankroll to rank their picks. The top pick is worth $770 to win $700, the second pick $660 to win $600, down to the seventh pick, $110 to win $100. The contestant who ends up with a higher mythical bankroll advances to the next round.

The weekend's results:

Bill Krackman, 4-2, +$630 with one $770 bet pending: Cardinals -2 1/2 (risk $770, late game); Titans +7 (L $660); Falcons -5 1/2 (W $500); Texans +10 (W $400); Raiders -3 (W $300); Eagles +2 (W $200); Jets +7 (L $110).

Jorge Gonzales, 4-3, -$140: Arkansas State -3 (L $770); Alabama-Birmingham -17 (W $600); UTEP -3 1/2 (L $550); Penn State + 2 1/2 (W $400); Navy -6 (W $300); USC -16 1/2 (L $220); Auburn -15 (W $100).

This week (8 p.m. Friday at the Riviera): Lee Sterling vs. "Chicago Pete" Ventrella.

The Stardust Invitational football handicapping contest

The Stardust Invitational features 16 handicappers competing in a single-elimination tournament for a top prize of $10,000. Each week, two contestants make seven selections against the point spread from the weekend's college and pro football games. The contestant with the better record advances to the next round. A "best bet" is used for a tiebreaker.

Rich Dressler, 5-1-1: Akron -11 (L); Ravens -7 (W); Giants -3 (W); Seahawks-Redskins under 37 (push); Lions-Bucs under 34 (W); Redskins -2 (W); Raiders -3 (best bet, W ).

Ed Salmons, 6-1: Indiana +18 (W); Colorado -3 1/2 (W); Alabama +3 1/2 (W); North Carolina -4 (W); Broncos +4 (W); Jets +7 (L); Redskins -2 (best bet, W). Salmons advances.

This week (9 p.m. Friday at the Stardust): Andy Iskoe vs. Dave Malinsky.

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Football bettors at the Palms were wagering heavily -- and winning -- on several NFL underdogs leading up to kickoff Sunday, sports book manager Rich Baccellieri said.

"They bet the heck out of the Chargers," against the New England Patriots, Baccellieri said. "That's a good (point spread) number to get against New England."

The point spread on the game opened as high as 6 points in favor of the Patriots in Las Vegas, and closed as low as 4. The Chargers went on to win the game outright, 41-17. The Patriots are now 2-2 against the spread after going 11-3-2 against the number last season.

The Palms sports book received a lot of late money on the Denver Broncos (plus 3 1/2 points) against the Jacksonville Jaguars, and on the Detroit Lions (plus 6) against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Baccellieri said.

"We closed the Lions game at 6," Baccellieri said. "I know some other (sports books) had them at least 6 1/2."

The Lions covered the spread in a 17-13 loss, while the Broncos won outright, 20-7. Some of that late underdog money was offset by the flood of money on the favorites that regularly comes in from recreational gamblers, Baccellieri said.

-- The puck will drop for all 30 teams Wednesday as the National Hockey League begins its regular season and tries to rebuild its decimated organization.

The Philadephia Flyers, with a revamped roster featuring new center Peter Forsberg, are favored to win the Stanley Cup at odds of 4-1 at the Stardust sports book.

Las Vegas NHL handicapper Bobby Bryde -- the "Hockey Meister" -- is recommending a play on the long-shot Nashville Predators to win the championship.

Led by left winger Paul Kariya, goalie Tomas Vokoun and a group of talented youngsters, the Predators are being overlooked by oddsmakers and bettors, Bryde said. He thinks a "fair" price on Nashville to win the Stanley Cup is 20-1, and said it's worth betting at 30-1, a price that's available at Las Vegas sports books.

Bryde also thinks the Flyers will record fewer than 109 1/2 points, the opening number at the Las Vegas Hilton sports book. (Teams get two points for a victory and one for a loss in overtime or a shootout).

"More than likely (the Flyers) are going to win their division, but the number on them is inflated," Bryde said. "Everybody in the world is on the Flyers. I don't even have them in my final four."