Columnist Jeff Haney: Why some people in the gaming industry don’t like playing favorites

Monday, Nov. 28, 2005 | 9:35 a.m.

Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Monday, Friday (gaming) and Wednesday (poker). Reach him at (702) 259-4041 or haney@lasvegassun.com.

Leroy's "Money Talks" football handicapping contest

Correction: In last Monday's "Breaking it Down" section, the photographs of handicappers Steve Cofield and Tim Trushel were transposed. The Sun regrets the error.

This invitational features 16 handicappers who each put up $2,500 to compete in a single-elimination tournament. Leroy's adds another $10,000 to the prize pool for a total of $50,000. The winner collects $40,000, with $10,000 going to the runner-up. Each week, two contestants make seven selections against the point spread from the weekend's college and pro football games, working with a hypothetical bankroll to rank their picks. The top pick is worth $770 to win $700, the second pick $660 to win $600, down to the seventh pick, $110 to win $100. The contestant who ends up with a higher hypothetical bankroll advances to the next round.

This week's results:

Bill Krackman, East Coast sports bettor, 4-2-1, +590: Rutgers -13 (W $100); Virginia +18 (W $200); Chargers -3 (W $300); Bills +4 (risk $440, push); Louisiana-Monroe -2 (L $550); Seahawks -4 1/2 (L $660); Chiefs -3 (W $700).

Buzz Daly, online gaming columnist and radio show host, 4-3, +$1,330: UAB -5 (L $110); Kentucky +9 (L $220); Georgia -4 1/2 (W $300); Louisiana Tech + 6 1/22 (L $440); Bengals -9 (W $500); Rutgers -13 (W $600); Georgia Tech-Georgia under 40 (W $700).

Daly advances

This week (8 p.m. Friday at the Riviera): Bryan Leonard vs. "Chicago Pete" Ventrella

The Stardust invitational football handicapping contest

The Stardust invitational features 16 handicappers competing in a single-elimination tournament for a top prize of $10,000. Each week, two contestants make seven selections against the point spread from the weekend's college and pro football games. The contestant with the better record advances to the next round. A "best bet" is used for a tiebreaker.

The weekend's results:

Fezzik, professional gambler, 1-5-1: Louisiana Tech +6 1/2 (L); Kentucky +9 (L); Bills +4 (push); Browns +4 (L); Cardinals +3 1/2 (L); Seahawks -4 1/2 (L); Titans-49ers over 42 1/2 (best bet, W).

Ed Salmons, Las Vegas Hilton sports book manager, 1-5, 1 pending: Louisiana Tech + 6 1/2 (L); Maryland +2 1/2 (L); Kansas +3 (W); Georgia Tech + 3 1/2 (L); Buccaneers -3 (L); Steelers + 8 1/2 (tonight); Redskins +3 (best bet, L).

Winner to be determined tonight.

This week (9 p.m. Friday at the Stardust): Steve Cofield vs. Marc Lawrence

Don't tell veteran bookmaker Jimmy Vaccaro that this season has been christened the "year of the favorite" in NFL betting.

Or that a gambler who bet every NFL favorite would have a record of 95-69 against the point spread (58 percent), good enough to turn a robust profit.

Or that NFL favorites are 126-42 straight-up, regardless of the point spread. (A typical result would be more like 112-56, according to the sharp oddsmakers at offshore book Pinnacle Sports.)

Or even that the favorites' big run has some bookies speculating about a fundamental change in the nature of sports betting, a revolution sparked by the Internet and tech-savvy computer wizards.

Nah, Vaccaro doesn't want to hear it. He has been in the business too long, on both sides of the counter, to fret much about the results from two-thirds of a single season.

"They're making me dizzy with all that stuff," said Vaccaro, now a spokesman for Leroy's sports books. "I mean, what are you gonna do, tell people they can't bet favorites? Come on."

If you're a bookmaker, "you keep writing the tickets, keep taking their money and you'll end up just fine."

Look at Friday's results, Vaccaro said. Although no pro football games were played, it was a big sports betting day in Las Vegas, with five college games on the board and Thanksgiving weekend crowds packing local casinos.

And favorites took a hard fall, going 1-4 against the spread. Only Wisconsin managed to cover as a favorite, with Texas, Arizona State, LSU and Colorado faltering. In at least three of those games, there was heavy betting action on the favorite. Texas closed as high as a 30-point favorite after opening at 25 1/2.

"So maybe a book had a bad Sunday, but it makes 40 percent back of what it lost right there, in one day," Vaccaro said. "That's the way the process works."

The success of NFL favorites has put some money in the pockets of recreational gamblers, sometimes called the "betting public," or "squares," as opposed to professional sports bettors. Traditionally, the public bets NFL favorites regardless of the line.

The sports books have several factors working in their favor, though:

* Don't underestimate the powerful "vigorish," or commission, the books take on each bet. Gamblers risk $1.10 for each $1 they're trying to win, and as Vaccaro suggested, the extra 10 cents on the dollar virtually ensures the house will get the money eventually.

* The favorites' hot streak has also been a bonanza for gamblers who play "teasers" -- a specialized wager in which the bettor is given extra points in the spread in exchange for paying a higher vigorish. But that streak is guaranteed to turn ugly. With the exception of the Barbary Coast, the Stratosphere and Wynn Las Vegas, casinos on the Strip charge an exorbitant vig for football teasers. Bet teasers anywhere else on the Strip (as much of the public does), and you're essentially playing roulette. Double-zero will get you.

* Sure, the public is still enamored of favorites, but there's no indication sharp bettors are, too. "It's been the biggest year in 20 years for favorites -- (about 58) percent when the average is closer to 48 percent," Las Vegas sports handicapper "Fairway" Jay Ginsbach said. "The underdogs are going to come back."

They didn't this weekend. NFL favorites were 10-3-1 against the spread heading into Sunday's late game between the Saints and the Jets. On the money line, favorites were 12-2 counting the Thanksgiving Day games.

"The public is getting rich," said a local independent oddsmaker who works as an agent for several offshore sports books and is tuned in to betting patterns. "The favorites just don't stop. It's like there's some kind of weird change going on in sports betting, where the public has information that's just as good as the house."