Wednesday, Nov. 23, 2005 | 7:20 a.m.
It was unnerving but not unexpected when Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt said Sunday that we are "not as prepared as we need to be" in regard to a possible outbreak of pandemic flu. Appearing on NBC's "Meet the Press," Leavitt said it will be at least three to five more years before the country has the manufacturing capacity to produce enough vaccine for the country's entire population. If pandemic flu hits before then, "We will not have enough for everyone," Leavitt said.
While there currently is no pandemic flu in the world, it is quite possible for the virus now ravaging poultry flocks in Asia to mutate. Already able to jump with deadly effect from birds to people in contact with them, the virus could change into a form enabling it to jump from person to person. How soon this could happen is unknown. But it is known that if it does happen, pandemic flu could spread throughout the world within months, as it can be passed quickly by people who are traveling as well as by migrating birds.
On Nov. 1 President Bush outlined a $7.1 billion plan that would put the nation on the path toward preparedness. While no one knows if existing flu vaccines -- Tamiflu and Relenza -- would be effective against the new virus, they are the best defense now available. Bush's plan calls for stockpiling enough of those vaccines to inoculate about a third of the population. The plan also sets aside money to research ways of speeding the development of new vaccines, so that by 2010 inoculations for everyone could begin within six months of a pandemic outbreak. Additionally, the plan would provide nearly $600 million to be divided by the states, so they could prepare emergency plans.
The Bush administration is doing what it can until Congress approves the plan. It recently banned poultry from British Columbia when a bird flu virus appeared there, even though Canada said the virus is not of the Asian variety and far less dangerous. Scientists are also examining the droppings of migrating birds.
But what is really needed is for Congress to soon agree on a plan similar to what Bush has presented (minus the proposal to exempt vaccine makers from lawsuits in the event of bad outcomes). To date the Senate and House have been haggling over the plan, as if it were a normal bill with time for partisan gamesmanship.
This is an urgent bill that should be passed in the remaining weeks of this year.
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