Monday, Nov. 14, 2005 | 8:47 a.m.
Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Monday, Friday (gaming) and Wednesday (poker). Reach him at (702) 259-4041 or [email protected].
Leroy's "Money Talks" football handicapping contest
This invitational features 16 handicappers who each put up $2,500 to compete in a single-elimination tournament. Leroy's adds another $10,000 to the prize pool for a total of $50,000. The winner collects $40,000, with $10,000 going to the runner-up. Each week, two contestants make seven selections against the point spread from the weekend's college and pro football games, working with a hypothetical bankroll to rank their picks. The top pick is worth $770 to win $700, the second pick $660 to win $600, down to the seventh pick, $110 to win $100. The contestant who ends up with a higher hypothetical bankroll advances to the next round.
This week's results:
Doc Moseman, professional handicapper, 5-2, +$490: Purdue -23 (W $100); Clemson + 1 1/2 (W $200); Minnesota -5 (W $300); Pitt -11 1/2 (W $400); Wisconsin -2 1/2 (L $550); Cal +19 (L $660); Michigan -25 (W $700).
Nick Bogdanovich, prominent former Las Vegas sports book director, 4-3, +$490: Oklahoma -13 (L $110); Houston -1 1/2 (W $200); Rams + 6 1/2 (L $330); Broncos -3 (W $400); Idaho +9 (W $500); Minnesota -5 (W $600); Utah -6 (L $770).
The contestants tie, or "push," both winning the same amount.
This week (8 p.m. Friday at the Riviera): Alf Musketa vs. Bryan Leonard
The Stardust invitational features 16 handicappers competing in a single-elimination tournament for a top prize of $10,000. Each week, two contestants make seven selections against the point spread from the weekend's college and pro football games. The contestant with the better record advances to the next round. A "best bet" is used for a tiebreaker.
The weekend's results:
Al McMordie, sports handicapper, 3-3, 1 pending: Cal +18 1/2 (L); Wake Forest +17 (L); Bills -2 1/2 (W); Eagles -3 (tonight); Vikings +9 1/2 (W); Ravens +6 1/2 (L); Iowa State +2 1/2 (best bet, W).
Marc Lawrence, sports handicapper, 4-2-1: Cal + 18 1/2 (L); Iowa State +2 1/2 (W); Arkansas +1 (W); Arizona State +3 1/2 (L); Auburn +3 (W); Packers +9 1/2 (W); Alabama +3 (best bet, push).
Lawrence advances.
This week (9 p.m. Friday at the Stardust):
Tim Trushel vs. Steve Cofield
Long before the NFL season, several sports books set a speculative betting line on the Super Bowl, inviting gamblers to wager on whether the winner of February's championship game would be from the NFC or the AFC.
The AFC was favored by 3 points on the early line, and that number has grown steadily.
After Sunday's action, the AFC was favored by more than 7 at sports books offering the proposition. At the Palms, the AFC was listed as a 9 1/2-point favorite.
"They have been betting the AFC up," Palms sports book manager Rich Baccellieri said.
The big move in the betting line has helped feed a perception that the AFC is by far pro football's superior conference.
But that notion is only partially correct, according to Las Vegas professional sports bettor Fezzik, who goes by one name to camouflage his identity from casino officials who sometimes restrict his betting action.
The AFC might be the stronger conference, but its power is concentrated at the top, Fezzik said -- most notably with the Indianapolis Colts, who improved to 9-0 overall after beating the Houston Texans 31-17 Sunday.
"It's really the Colts against everyone else," Fezzik said. "The question you have to ask is who's out there that can beat them."
After Sunday's 30-3 victory by the Carolina Panthers against the New York Jets, AFC teams are 18-20 overall against the NFC this season. The AFC has performed a little better with the point spread taken into account, covering the number 20 times in those 38 games (53 percent).
At the top it's a different story: After failing to cover the spread in two of their first three games, the Colts have since covered the spread in five of six, averaging 38.5 points in their past four games.
"One could argue that they're getting better every week," Fezzik said.
Fezzik said he bet the AFC minus 3 points to win the Super Bowl on an early line, but he believes the current number is the "correct price."
The Colts will probably be favored by about 8 points in their divisional playoff game, Fezzik predicted, and by about 9 points in the conference championship game.
"Then they get to play the Super Bowl in the dome (Ford Field) in Detroit," he said. Indianapolis plays its home games indoors and traditionally performs well in domes.
If the Colts do reach the Super Bowl, they'll probably be favored by 10 1/2 points in the game, Fezzik projected. The current Las Vegas number accounts for the possibility that another AFC team will upset the Colts in the playoffs and represent the conference in the Super Bowl. If that happens, expect to see the AFC favored by about 4 1/2 points, he said.
* * *
The Colts' 9-0 start prompted a couple of Las Vegas sports books to post odds on whether Indianapolis will finish the regular season undefeated.
Only the 1972 Miami Dolphins have had a perfect season.
After Sunday's game, odds at the Palms on this year's Colts were minus-650 on the "No," they will not go unbeaten; and plus-530 on the "Yes."
Minus-650 means bettors risk $6.50 for each $1 they're trying to win; plus-530 means bettors win $5.30 plus their original stake for each $1 they risk.
The Las Vegas Hilton and Leroy's sports books are offering the same proposition at varying odds.
One way to analyze this prop entails estimating the point spreads in each of the Colts' seven remaining games, converting each to a money line and determining how much you would win by betting the Colts on the money line every game, rolling over your profits each week. (A bet on the money line is on which team will win the game outright, regardless of the point spread.)
We figure the Colts will be favored by about 5 1/2 at Cincinnati, 7 against Pittsburgh, 13 against Tennessee, 6 at Jacksonville, 10 against San Diego, 7 at Seattle and 10 1/2 against Arizona.
That translates into money lines of minus-250, 330, 650, 270, 500, 330 and 525. A $100 stake rolled over each week would yield a profit of $437 if the Colts go undefeated -- meaning the Palms' line of plus-530 offers solid value.
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