Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

Reid claims victory, but still takes a hit

WASHINGTON -- Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid said there were no individual winners in the historic agreement struck late Monday to avert a showdown over the "nuclear option." The Senate and the public won, he said.

But winners and losers were being assessed anyway on Capitol Hill on Tuesday, and the stakes are high for the Democratic leader in the battle over judicial nominees and the filibuster.

Did the Nevada senator score political points by holding the line to preserve the filibuster for future fights over judges, especially Supreme Court nominees?

Or did the Reid cede power to a small group of centrist Democrats who caved in on three of President Bush's long-pending judicial nominees -- and possibly, future nominees -- who were bitterly opposed by liberal activist groups?

Reid himself seemed to claim victory.

"I hope that George Bush, Dick Cheney and the Washington Republican leaders stop to learn some lessons from the American people's rejection of their extreme tactics," Reid said at a press conference Tuesday. "The Washington Republicans have wasted months by trying to pay off the far right instead of doing what's right."

But Reid may have lost more than Majority Leader Bill Frist of Tennessee lost in the filibuster fight, said Rutgers University political science professor Ross Baker.

Reid's Democrats agreed to limit their filibusters -- and gave Bush and Frist an immediate victory on three judges -- Janice Rogers Brown, Priscilla Owen and William Pryor -- that they had stridently opposed on principle, Baker said.

"These three were the poster children for conservative judicial nominations," Baker said. "These were the people on the marquee."

Somewhat remarkably, Reid claimed victory anyway -- and next to the more glum-looking Frist, Reid played the role of winner more convincingly, Baker said.

"He put the the best possible gloss on the agreement, but on closer examination, it was not all that beneficial for the Democrats," Baker said. "Whereas Frist had the rug pulled out from under him."

At issue was whether Democrats should be able to filibuster -- and thereby prevent confirmation of -- judicial nominees they deem unacceptable. Democrats filibustered 10 nominees in the last Congress. Republicans said that broke with tradition, and Frist was poised Tuesday to pursue a procedural proposal dubbed the "nuclear option" designed to halt the filibusters.

Democrats said that would have eliminated a vital check that the minority party has on the power of the majority, and thereby would have changed the very function of the Senate. Republicans said they were well within their constitutional rights to seek ways to obtain up-or-down votes for all nominees.

But the long-anticipated nuclear option was not triggered Tuesday as expected, after seven Republicans and seven Democrats emerged from weeks of tense negotiations to announce that a compromise had been struck.

In short, the seven Democrats agreed to filibuster nominees only in "extraordinary" circumstances, and offered to allow votes on Brown, Owen and Pryor. In exchange, the seven Republicans committed to "oppose the rules changes" sought by Republican leaders that would trigger the nuclear option.

Reid lost face when Democrats agreed to votes on the three nominees, especially after he delivered fiery rhetoric in which he outlined Democratic opposition to their nominations, said Sean Rushton, executive director of the Committee for Justice, which lobbied for up-or-down votes on judges.

"His bluff has completely been called," Rushton said.

Reid and the Democrats also lost their battle to "normalize" the filibuster as a method to block judges just because they were conservative, Rushton said. Reid and the Democrats will be viewed as having been "repudiated" for over-using the filibuster, Rushton said.

Both Reid and Frist suffered a bit politically as they took flak from the activist groups that in some cases dumped considerable money into advertising and lobbying, said Jennifer Duffy, Senate analyst for the independent Cook Political Report. The conservative groups have been more vocal in their displeasure so far, but the liberal groups are just as unhappy, she said.

"Reid is in the same boat that Frist is with those groups," Duffy said. "The difference is that Reid isn't running for president. So it's a lot less dangerous for him."

Frist, who has been considered a presidential contender for 2008, looks a little bit more like a sore loser because he was more visibly upset about the deal, Duffy said.

"Reid declared victory whether it was his or not," Duffy said. "And in the end, they preserved the filibuster."

Reid was a bigger winner than Frist, Community College of Southern Nevada political science instructor Mark Peplowski said. Frist lost what President Bush, along with most Republican senators and a large swath of the Republican base, wanted most -- a guaranteed up-or-down vote on all nominees, Peplowski said.

Peplowski and 12 of his students are visiting Washington this week and watched on Tuesday from the Senate gallery as Republican senators voiced disappointment with the agreement.

"They said this is an issue that is going to come back to bite them," Peplowski said. "Democrats gave up a lot, but they kept the filibuster in place. It's there. And why is that a win for the Democrats? Because 'extraordinary' is a subjective term. If circumstances dictate, Democrats are going to make the case for an extraordinary filibuster."

But Republicans on Tuesday suggested the battle is not over, hinting that they could bring back the nuclear option -- which they are counter-spinning as the "constitutional option" -- as soon as Democrats claim "extraordinary" circumstances for a filibuster.

The elimination of the filibuster is the only way to guarantee up-or-down votes, Frist said today on the Senate floor. Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, on Tuesday called the agreement a truce, not a treaty.

James Dobson, founder and chairman of Focus on the Family, a leading religious conservative group, blasted Republicans.

"This Senate agreement represents a complete bail-out and betrayal by a cabal of Republicans and a great victory for united Democrats," Dobson said in a statement. "Only three of President Bush's nominees will be given the courtesy of an up-or-down vote, and it's business as usual for all the rest."

Meanwhile liberal groups expressed dismay with the Democrats. The Alliance for Justice was "very disappointed with the decision to move these extremist nominees one step closer to confirmation," the group said in a statement. But group president Nan Aron said she was not disappointed with Reid.

"Just the opposite," she said. "This fight has earned him the esteem of progressives across the country. He has demonstrated during this fight just how dedicated and tireless he is to saving checks and balances."

Reid and Frist each got something in the deal, University of Richmond professor Carl Tobias said. Reid got what he wanted most -- the filibuster, Tobias said. And Reid had previously shown willingness to allow a few votes on controversial judges in the name of compromise, said Tobias, a former UNLV law professor who has closely followed the Senate.

"This agreement is pretty close to what Sen. Reid was saying he wanted a few weeks ago," Tobias said.

Frist got the votes on the three judges, plus he won a victory in that Democrats are now are considerably less likely to filibuster, Tobias said.

Sen. John Ensign, R-Nev., said time will tell soon enough whether Reid or Frist fared better, based largely on how Democrats choose to use the filibuster. Ensign said the majority of Republican senators opposed the agreement because it still allows filibusters. He said the agreement ultimately could undermine the power of both Frist and Reid.

"It's important to have leaders, and this would threaten the future if people do this on a lot of different issues," Ensign said.

Ensign added that he and Reid spoke about the looming confrontation over judges a few weeks ago. The two "strongly disagree" on the issue, but it does not affect their close relationship, he said.

Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., a lead negotiator in the compromise talks, brushed aside the notion that the Reid-led Democrats appeared more content with the deal than Republicans.

"I think they're just acting happier," McCain said on National Public Radio. "Do you think they are happy that Pryor, Brown and Owen are going to be approved very quickly by the United States Senate? Do you think they are happy about the fact that filibusters will only be agreed to in the most extraordinary circumstances?"

A White House spokesman declined to say whether Reid or Frist, who was backed by Bush, ultimately got more out of the compromise. Bush considers the agreement to be "real progress," spokesman Ken Lisaius said. Still, Bush intends to continue to push for up-or-down votes on all nominees, Lisaius said.

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