Columnist Jeff Haney: Handicapper recommends plays on Bucs, Bengals

Wednesday, May 18, 2005 | 9:04 a.m.

Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Wednesday. Reach him at (702) 259-4041 or haney@lasvegassun.com.

NBA playoffs? Wake 'em when the Finals are set.

The Derby and the Preakness? Can't beat the pageantry -- or the track takeout of nearly 20 percent.

No, hardcore NFL bettors are content to spend early May fine-tuning their forecasts for the coming season of professional football -- by far the most heavily bet sport in Nevada sports books.

Now that a couple of local sports books have posted wagering propositions for the 2005 NFL season, bettors are beginning to fire away with real money. A week after the Plaza downtown posted lines on every NFL game of the regular season along with team season win totals, the Las Vegas Hilton has begun taking bets on more than 80 NFL "games of the year" as well as its team season win over/unders (see listing of odds, this page).

Las Vegas sports handicapper Patrick Bartucci said this week he'll be making at least 10 season-win plays, including two he has isolated as his strongest picks: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to go over 7 wins, and the Cincinnati Bengals to go over 7 wins.

Last year, Bartucci went 2-for-2 in NFL season win picks that he released in the Sun before the season.

The total of 7 wins for the Bucs is available at the Plaza and the Hilton, with a line of minus-115 (bettors risk $1.15 for each $1 they're trying to win) on the over at the Hilton.

The Plaza opened the Bengals at 7 wins and shaded the betting line toward the over, while the Hilton made it 8 wins with the betting line shaded toward the under. Currently at the Hilton bettors lay minus-135 on the Bengals under 8. (For the record, we'll call the play over 7 but make note of the high premium on the over.)

Bartucci applauded Tampa Bay's acquisition of free agent wide receiver Ike Hilliard, its re-signing of quarterback Brian Griese and its key draft pick of running back Carnell "Cadillac" Williams of Auburn.

"Tampa should manage to pull off 4-2 out of the blocks before the bye week," said Bartucci, who is online at patricksfreepress.com. "(It's) all gravy after that (given) a favorable schedule, with their last two games at home.

"I look for a solid year from (Hilliard), enabling underrated Brian Griese to spread the field. This, in turn, should help create a memorable rookie season for Williams."

The Bucs finished 5-11 last season and have concerns about an aging defensive corps.

"The defense is getting gray but has enough talent, experience and leadership to hold most teams on their schedule under 21 points," Bartucci said.

The Bengals ended up 8-8 last season and were shut out of the postseason, but Bartucci projects a return to the AFC playoffs for coach Marvin Lewis' team.

"They kept the offensive nucleus intact by re-anteing on deals with key free agents," Bartucci said. "This cohesion and familiarity, along with good coaching and rising star quarterback (Carson Palmer) should be good for nine or more wins."

While Bartucci's wagers are based on his handicapping, Hilton race and sports book director Jay Kornegay said other early bettors are primarily shooting for "middles" -- that is, taking advantage of differing betting lines at various sports books to try to lock in a small profit without taking a position.

"Right now what we're seeing is guys playing middles," Kornegay said. "I don't think they're true opinions. ... It comes down to our opinion of what these lines should be versus someone else's. We have faith in our guys (oddsmakers)."

Ruiz-Toney

Even though James Toney's April 30 victory against John Ruiz has been overturned and ruled a no-contest, bettors who wagered on Ruiz will not receive a refund.

Winning tickets on Toney, of course, were paid out immediately after the fight. Toney was nearly a 2-1 favorite in the WBA heavyweight title fight at Madison Square Garden.

The result was officially changed after Toney's postfight drug test turned up positive for a banned substance.

Betting regulations stipulate that the results of boxing matches, and other sporting events, are ruled "closed" on the day of the event.

A similar situation sometimes occurs in horse racing, in which the official finishing order can be changed due to technicalities days after the race, long after winning tickets have been paid out.

"It's really unfortunate; it's a horrible situation," said Robert Walker, director of the MGM-Mirage race and sports book. "We have to honor those tickets that day. I don't know where else you draw the line; otherwise you'd have to wait a week after every horse race."

BoDog conference

For a second consecutive year, BoDog, a big online gambling operation based in Costa Rica, will host a "poker and sports marketing conference" at the Mandalay Bay Events Center. This year's conference is scheduled for July 6 and 7.

Scheduled to give presentations are poker tournament director Matt Savage, sports handicapper Marc Lawrence, online gambling expert Christopher Costigan and others. For information visit bodogconference.com.