Columnist Jeff Haney: Winky by decision is worth the gamble

Wednesday, May 11, 2005 | 9:23 a.m.

Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Wednesday. Reach him at (702) 259-4041 or haney@lasvegassun.com.

Boxing bettors who think Winky Wright has at least a fighting chance against Felix "Tito" Trinidad in their big middleweight bout Saturday at the MGM Grand should consider placing a wager on Wright to win by decision, a proposition that would pay off at plus-300, or 3-1.

Trinidad is listed as nearly a 2-1 favorite in Las Vegas sports books to win the fight , but even Wright considers himself a live underdog.

"I'm the underdog because they know Trinidad more, that's all," Wright said this week. "... Everyone knows Tito or they think I am the smaller man. But I am not the smaller man. This (160 pounds) is a great weight for me."

The over/under on how long the fight will last has been set at 11 1/2 rounds in local books, with a premium on the "over" in most shops.

At sports books offering special propositions on the result of the fight, Wright by decision at plus-300 appears particularly attractive, as Wright has recorded only 25 knockouts in 51 professional fights. With the exception of one bout in which his opponent was disqualified, seven of Wright's past eight victories have come by decision rather than knockout.

In other words, if Wright does win Saturday, the likelihood of the victory coming by decision rather than knockout justifies taking a shot on the more lucrative proposition (plus-300) as opposed to simply betting Wright to win (which would pay plus-170 or so).

Trinidad's one career loss, however, did come by a stoppage rather than a decision. Trinidad has 42 victories in 43 pro fights; Wright's record is 48-3.

Other prices on fight props (odds are approximate and fluctuate often) include Wright by knockout, plus-550; Trinidad by knockout, plus-200; Trinidad by decision, plus-175; fight is a draw, 15-1.

It's important to note that when betting boxing propositions, wagers are not refunded if the fight is a draw.

Unless otherwise stated, if you are just betting a boxer to win outright -- rather than a proposition --then wagers are refunded if the fight is a draw.

A win by disqualification usually counts as a knockout for betting purposes, but double-check before wagering.

At Pinnacle Sports, an offshore book based in Curacao that caters to gamblers worldwide, about 60 percent of the money wagered has been on underdog Wright, a spokesman said Tuesday.

Trinidad is a minus-187 favorite at Pinnacle (pinnaclesports.com), with Wright a plus-177 underdog.

The round proposition at Pinnacle is over or under 11 1/2 rounds, with the over listed at minus-148 and the under at plus-138.

While Pinnacle has taken more individual bets on the under 11 1/2, it has taken more money on the over, the spokesman said.

Pinnacle's oddsmakers expect those betting lines to remain fairly consistent through the day of the fight, when they could change substantially if a professional betting syndicate decides it likes one side or the other, the spokesman said.

World hockey

With the NHL out of commission, hockey bettors can get their fix by wagering on the 2005 IIHF World Hockey Championship, which enters the quarterfinal round Thursday morning with four games on the board.

Expert hockey handicapper Bobby Bryde of Las Vegas has been keeping a close watch on the entire tournament, and said the quarterfinals offer perhaps the best opportunity for bettors to make money.

"The key is to hit 'em in the quarterfinals and bet against the U.S. and Canada," said Bryde (hockeymeister.com). "There's always value betting against Canada and the U.S."

Canada, led by goaltender Martin Brodeur, is about a 2-1 favorite against Slovakia on Thursday after squeaking past Ukraine by a score of 2-1 Tuesday. Slovakia relies on the scoring of Pavol Demitra, Zigmund Palffy and Miroslav Satan. Goaltending is considered the team's biggest weakness.

The U.S. team is better than a 3-2 underdog, so Czech Republic backers will have to lay a price in that matchup.

"Most European players have played in their leagues this year, and the Europeans, especially the Eastern Europeans, take the tournament very seriously," Bryde said. "The U.S. hasn't won the tournament since 1960 -- and that's a trend that's going to continue."

Bryde, who kept up with the tournament's early stages primarily through pay-per-view Internet feeds, also likes Sweden as a big favorite against Switzerland on Thursday. In Thursday's remaining matchup, Russia is a small favorite against Finland.

"Sweden, the Czechs and Slovakia looks like a good trifecta," Bryde said.

NFL lines

Two full months before the opening of pro football training camps, the Plaza hotel-casino downtown has posted betting lines on each and every NFL game on the 2005-06 schedule.

Betting lines for the first week of the NFL season have been available for several weeks at a couple of Las Vegas sports books, including the Plaza, but now bettors who are so inclined can place a wager on any game, Week 1 through Week 17.

(In the 5:30 p.m. game in Week 17, on Sunday, Jan. 1, 2006, the Dallas Cowboys are favored by 2 points against the St. Louis Rams. Jump on it now -- that line's steaming to 3!)

After evidently working their share of two-a-days, Plaza oddsmakers have also posted regular-season victory totals for each NFL team. Bettors can wager the team's number of victories will fall over or under the posted total.

The highest number on the board, 12 wins, is attached to the Indianapolis Colts. Bettors must lay minus-120 (risk $1.20 for each $1 they're trying to win) on over 12 wins for Indy, minus-110 on under 12.

The Super Bowl champion New England Patriots check in at 11 1/2 victories, with a premium of minus-150 (bettors risk $1.50 for each $1 they're trying to win) on the under.

The Philadelphia Eagles, who came up short against the Patriots in the Super Bowl, are also listed at 11 1/2, but with a premium of minus-150 on the over.

The San Francisco 49ers, who finished 2-14 last season, are projected to improve only slightly, to 3 1/2 wins.