Columnist Jeff Haney: Do ‘correlated’ baseball parlays pay off?

Wednesday, May 4, 2005 | 9:28 a.m.

Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Wednesday. Reach him at (702) 259-4041 or haney@lasvegassun.com.

To a casual gambler, all parlays are created equal.

More sophisticated sports bettors know that some parlays are more equal than others.

In baseball betting, some gamblers swear by two-leg parlays that pair the underdog in a road game with the "over" in the same game, or the favored team in a home game with the "under" in that game. ("Over" and "under" refer to the betting line on the total number of runs scored in the game.)

These bettors are trying to take the concept of a parlay -- a wager on two distinct, separately occurring events -- and turn it on its head by sneaking in a wager on two events that are somehow linked, or "correlated." The bettor can secure an advantage against the house because a correlated parlay pays off at the same rate as any other parlay (true odds in baseball, usually 13-5 in other sports for two-teamers).

Devotees of correlated parlays like to bet them because they believe, taking a page from Willie Sutton's game plan, "that's where the money is."

In baseball, this could mean pairing the road underdog with the over, because if the road 'dog is winning, the home team bats in the bottom of the ninth inning -- meaning an extra half-run or so will be scored (theoretically), which helps our "over" bet. (A half-run might not sound like much, but in trying to beat the oddsmakers we're always dealing with razor-thin margins.)

An even stronger correlation occurs when the road team is a large underdog -- say, plus-150 or better -- and the total listed by the oddsmaker is small -- say, 8 runs or under.

That's because the betting line on the game and the total are related -- almost always because the home team's starting pitcher is exceptionally strong. So on those occasions when the underdog does win this game, it will often be due to a collapse by the home team's star pitcher -- meaning the game is likely to go over the total as well.

The chances the road underdog will win and the chances the game will go over the total are clearly correlated.

The question is if the correlation is strong enough to give bettors a decided advantage.

Some bookmakers obviously think so, as we have recently heard from some gamblers complaining that their attempts to bet correlated baseball parlays were refused.

But those gamblers must be betting with offshore sports books. (Not that we would ever recommend pulling a stunt like that. You know, what with the Wire Act of 1961 and all. Ahem.)

In Las Vegas, sports books still welcome all types of baseball parlay action, including those described here.

Kenny White, the city's leading oddsmaker, said he was not aware of any Nevada sports books restricting baseball parlays. But it could happen, he said.

"I could see the possibility that sometime down the road, somebody could put limits on (correlated baseball parlays)," said White, the chief executive officer of Las Vegas Sports Consultants, the oddsmaking company that serves most of the state's sports books.

"Something like road team to the over can definitely be a winning proposition for the player. You get those three extra outs working for you, and that can make a difference."

White said he does not think the state's sports books -- his clients -- are taking on too much risk by accepting correlated baseball parlays, and a little research backs him up.

An analysis by the Sun showed that in the 2004 baseball season, bettors had about 131 opportunities to parlay a big road underdog (plus-150 or higher) with "over" a total of 8 runs or less. Those bets had a record of 26 wins and 105 losses for a net profit of about 4 1/2 units -- that is, a $100 bettor put $13,100 in action and realized a gain of $450. Not bad, but a gambler could receive a similar return on investment -- without as much risk -- from the dividends alone of several blue-chip stocks.

And this baseball season, those parlay players are in an early hole, down more than 15 units with a record of 2-22.

(Source material: personal records, plus covers.com, jimfeist.com and the Vegas Insider odds archive. Actual mileage will vary due to the constant fluctuation of odds at sports books.)

"If we find something that our clients are going to get beat on, we're going to make them aware of it," White said. "If they do realize they're a small loser on certain kinds of parlays, all they have to do is limit the size of the action on them."

Incidentally, White said he's about to alert sports books that over the past couple of NFL seasons, bettors who parlayed underdogs of 7 points or more with the "under" in the same game showed a mild profit of roughly 12 units. None of the other three methods of parlaying -- underdog with the over, favorite with the over, or favorite with the under -- showed a profit over that stretch of time, White said.

Meanwhile, over the past year or so, we personally have bet baseball parlays pairing big road underdogs with small totals at any number of Nevada casinos, including but not limited to Stations, Coasts, the Palms, the Plaza, Rio and Arizona Charlie's.

Not only did the sports books take those bets without blinking an eye, but most of them also offered us a fistful of free drink tickets.