Columnist Jeff Haney: Handicapping the conferences, by the numbers

Wednesday, March 16, 2005 | 9:47 a.m.

Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Wednesday. Reach him at (702) 259-4041 or haney@lasvegassun.com.

At a private meeting of sports handicappers and professional gamblers Tuesday, the group was asked which conferences were likely to perform poorly, or at least below expectations, in the NCAA basketball tournament.

Strangely enough, among the dozen or so gamblers in attendance, most of the major conferences received a mention.

The consensus appeared to be bearish on the Big 12, the Southeastern Conference and Conference USA in particular.

A proposition on the board at the Imperial Palace sports book invites bettors to back up their opinion on the topic. The prop assigns a number of victories in the NCAA tournament to each of seven big conferences, along with prices to go "over" and the "under" that figure.

For example, the over/under on victories by Pac-10 teams in the tournament was posted at 5 1/2. Bettors must lay 110 to win 100 on the over 5 1/2, or lay 120 to win 100 on the under. If the four Pac-10 teams in the tournament -- Washington, Arizona, Stanford and UCLA -- combine for six or more victories, "over" bettors would cash their tickets; otherwise, "under" bettors would win.

The book "Sharp Sports Betting," written by gambling expert Stanford Wong and published in 2001, outlines a strategy to analyze this prop.

Wong's formula -- which assigns a theoretical number of victories to each team according to its seed in the bracket -- is still useful today. Through his research, Wong found that a No. 2 seed can be expected to win an average of 2.7 games in the tournament, a No. 3 seed an average of 1.9 games, and so on.

Here's a breakdown of the conference-victories proposition using the "SSB" strategy:

Atlantic Coast Conference: Duke, North Carolina, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech and North Carolina State figure to combine for 12.1 victories, according to the SSB formula. The number at the Imperial Palace was 11 1/2 victories, with a price of minus 130 (bettors wager $1.30 for each $1 they're trying to win) on the "over."

Big East: Boston College, Pittsburgh, Villanova, Connecticut, Syracuse and West Virginia are expected to record 7 1/2 victories, according to SSB. The number at the Imperial Palace was 9 on Tuesday, indicating the "under" could be a solid play.

Big 12: Texas, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Iowa State and Kansas should win 8.4 games in the tournament, which began with a play-in game Tuesday and continues Thursday. The number at the IP was 9, so perhaps the handicappers' pessimism was justified.

Big Ten: Illinois, Michigan State, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa figure to combine for 7.1 victories. The over/under at the IP was 8, meaning "under" could be the way to go.

Conference USA: Louisville, Charlotte, Cincinnati and UAB are expected to record 3.2 victories. The number at the IP was 4, but with a heavy premium of minus 200 on the "under."

Pacific-10: The four teams from the conference figure to combine for 6.7 wins, thanks in large part to Washington and its 3.7 projected victories. That's substantially "over" the 5 1/2 on the board at the IP.

Southeastern: Florida, Kentucky, Alabama, LSU and Mississippi State are expected to win 6.3 games. The over/under at the IP was 7, but with a heavy premium of minus 190 on the "under."

Tournament notes

Among other March Madness ideas expressed Tuesday at the gamblers' gathering, which took place at a restaurant in southwest Las Vegas:

Northern Iowa's relative anonymity against Wisconsin's high public profile adds value to the underdog's side, the handicappers said.

Jim Kruger, one of the handicappers on hand Tuesday, said he likes New Mexico plus 5 1/2 points against Villanova.

"New Mexico has five guys averaging double-figures (in points); they're well-balanced," said Kruger, online at vegassportsauthority.com. "Depth could be a problem, but depth usually isn't a factor in the first round."

That would be an exception, however, to the basic strategy of betting underdogs in the early rounds of the tournament.

"UTEP is an extremely athletic team, and if anyone could have trouble against an athletic team, it would be Utah," Kruger said.

Reduced vig

As the best March Madness promotion in Las Vegas, it's worth mentioning again: The Plaza and Vegas Club downtown are offering a reduced vigorish of minus 105 (bettors wager $1.05 for each $1 they're trying to win) rather than the standard minus 110 on NCAA tournament games.

The special vig applies only to sides in the tournament, not to totals or NIT games.

Open late

Thursday morning marks the beginning of the busiest four-day stretch of the year in Las Vegas sports books, yet some big properties are keeping their normal hours, closing at 10 or 11 p.m.

A representative from the Gold Coast called with a timely reminder that its book will be keeping its usual late hours, remaining open until 4 a.m. even on weekdays, which makes it a best bet particularly for off-hours wagering.