How to make your own line

Wednesday, June 29, 2005 | 9:40 a.m.

Some bettors use the following basic formula, or a variation of it, to make their own betting line for an NFL game. The Las Vegas professional sports bettor known as Fezzik (fezziksplace.com) has written about and, to an extent, popularized this method:

Example: Sunday, Sept. 11, Bills vs. Texans. We expect the Bills to win 8.5 games and the Texans to win 7.5 games. The difference, 1, times 3 equals 3. The Bills' home-field advantage is worth 3 points, so our estimated point spread is 6. The Bills are favored by 6 at the Plaza and the Las Vegas Hilton, and our formula indicates this is an accurate number and unlikely to change much.

Diligent bettors use formulas such as this to try to find small edges against the oddsmakers. If you think you can find large edges against the oddsmaker in a popular betting sport such as the NFL, well, good luck. Those guys are tough.

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