Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

Columnist Jeff Haney: Sports books took a hit in NFL wagering

Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Wednesday. Reach him at (702) 259-4041 or [email protected].

Late on the afternoon of Sunday, Nov. 21, in Cincinnati, the Pittsburgh Steelers defense forced Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer to throw the ball away from his own end zone, drawing a grounding call and a safety.

The 2-point play, coming as it did in the final minutes of the fourth quarter, sealed a 19-14 victory for the Steelers.

It was also the turning point with regard to the point spread. Gamblers had bet the Steelers heavily, laying 3 1/2, 4 and 4 1/2 points before the point spread closed at 5 or 5 1/2. The safety made winners of early Steelers bettors, and allowed late Bengals bettors to escape with a win or a push.

The game was among a handful of close decisions this season that still stick in the craw of Las Vegas bookmakers, some of whom are calling this National Football League season their least profitable in memory.

A confluence of factors led to a poor season for sports books -- but a good one for the betting public -- including several gaudy against-the-spread records by popular NFL teams, a few pivotal games that went against the house and plain old bad luck, bookmakers are saying.

"We did horribly this NFL season," said Bob Scucci, sports book director at the Stardust. "This is one of the worst seasons we've ever had."

The safety the Steelers recorded against Palmer and the Bengals cost the Stardust a bundle, Scucci said, and it was just one bad beat in a painful season.

"It's been a combination of several factors, and bad luck is one of them," Scucci said. "Some of our biggest decisions this season were decided by a safety in the game. In two or three games this season, we've had some of the biggest turnarounds I've seen."

Robert Walker, director of race and sports book operations for MGM-Mirage, also mentioned the Nov. 21 game as a low-water mark for his operation this NFL season.

"We had opened that game (with a point spread of) 3 1/2 and closed it at 5 1/2, and when he took that safety at the end it fell (on) 5," Walker said. "That's one of a couple of specific games that stand out."

Another, coincidentally, also involved the Steelers and Bengals. In their Oct. 3 game at Pittsburgh, the Steelers opened a favorite of 3 1/2 or 4 points in Las Vegas. Bettors piled on the Steelers, driving the line as high as 6 points at Mirage properties and the Las Vegas Hilton, then cashing when Pittsburgh returned a late interception for a touchdown that made the difference in which team covered the point spread.

The final score was 28-17, Steelers.

"As far as the NFL season, this is probably the most terrible season that I can remember," Walker said. "We basically broke even for the season."

Individual casinos do not reveal how much money their sports books win or lose.

For the sake of comparison, though, in 2003 Nevada sports books accepted $828 million in football wagers (college and NFL together) and kept just under 6 percent of the total for a net win of about $49 million, according to the state Gaming Control Board.

In the same year, the state's sports books took about $63 million in parlay-card action (all sports) and kept about one-third of it for a profit of $21 million.

In November 2004, the state's sports books lost a little more than $6 million on football betting, according to the Gaming Control Board.

"It was a year where professional players (bettors) beat us up pretty good, and parlay players beat us up, too," Walker said.

Scucci and Walker said professional gamblers and the betting public were on the same side in a string of crucial, heavily bet games during the NFL season that went against the house.

Pro gamblers are few in number but bet big; the so-called "public" wagers smaller amounts of money per capita but encompasses a vast number of customers.

"There were some soft lines, but there were also some very popular teams that went on some long winning streaks," Scucci said. "A lot of bettors were able to parlay the same teams every week, and those teams just kept covering. That gave us some parlay liability, which we don't usually have."

Topping the list of the popular -- or "public" -- NFL teams that performed well against the spread were the San Diego Chargers, who finished 13-1-2 ATS in the regular season, with the one blemish coming in their second game of the season, Sept. 19 against the New York Jets.

The New England Patriots were 11-3-2 ATS, a particularly powerful showing considering they're the defending Super Bowl champions.

Also:

"From Week 3 or 4 to Week 14 or 15, those teams were basically covering every week, and it seemed like the only time they didn't cover was when they were playing each other," Walker said. "It was just one of those years. ... I attribute some of it to poor lines, and there was some bad luck. But as far as parlay players winning, that has nothing to do with linemaking. That was just the public beating our brains in."

Jeff Sherman, assistant manager of the Las Vegas Hilton race and sports book, put the subpar season into perspective.

"It was a poor season, but that's relatively speaking," Sherman said. "We still made money on the NFL. It's just that the amount of money was down compared to where it's been in previous seasons."

Indeed, the state's sports books did turn a nifty profit in football betting in September and October, according to the Gaming Control Board. Official figures for the entire season have not yet been compiled.

And the Hilton had a profitable month in December, Sherman said.

"There was more of a disparity among the teams (in the NFL) this season than we usually see," Sherman said. "The public kept backing the teams that were covering, and they kept hitting."

Two big betting Sundays remain in the NFL, Sunday's conference championship matchups and the Super Bowl Feb. 6, but Walker said he's already looking forward to a change of pace.

"This is the first time I've ever said I can't wait for football season to be over," Walker said. "Let's bring on basketball."

Early Super Bowl XXXIX line

AFC.....-6.....NFC

Over/under.....45 1/2 points

Money line.....AFC -240, NFC +190

Odds to win Super Bowl XXXIX

Patriots.....8-5

Eagles.....14-5

Steelers.....8-5

Falcons.....17-2

ODDS FROM THE PALMS AS OF TUESDAY

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