Columnist Sal DeFilippo: NFL teams: ‘Fancy meeting you here’

Sal DeFilippo

Friday, Jan. 14, 2005 | 9:58 a.m.

Sal DeFilippo's pro football picks column appears Friday. Reach him at sal@lasvegassun.com or (702) 259-4076.

There's an unusual common denominator in this weekend's divisional playoff games.

All four games -- New York at Pittsburgh, St. Louis at Atlanta, Minnesota at Philadelphia, Indianapolis at New England -- are rematches from the regular season, despite none of the matchups involving intradivisional rivals. In fact, the games are even at the same sites.

If you have a hard time remembering the first meetings, all of which were won by the home teams, don't feel bad: Three of them took place in the season's first two weeks.

Indianapolis opened the season at New England, losing 27-24 when the Colts' Mike Vanderjagt missed a field goal in the final minute.

In Week 2, St. Louis traveled to Atlanta and the Falcons rolled up a 34-17 victory and Philadelphia beat Minnesota 27-16 on Monday Night Football.

Toss in the Steelers' 17-6 win against the Jets in mid-December, and it certainly seems like the home teams would have a decided advantage again this weekend, especially when you consider they all have last week off to rest.

History suggests that they do. Since the divisional round was instituted in 1990, home teams are dominant -- to the tune of a 45-11 record.

So if that's the case, why has most of the betting favored the underdogs? Perhaps this is a reaction to last weekend, when for the first time since the format was installed in 1990, three of the four road teams won during the wild-card round.

The opening numbers have dropped in every game around town. At the Stardust, the Steelers, Eagles and Patriots all opened a point higher than they were on Thursday. The Falcons-Rams line has steadily held at a touchdown.

Sure, the home teams will be focusing on winning, not covering the spread, but the betting public certainly believes that despite the overwhelming advantage teams with the bye week have historically enjoyed, these road underdogs can win outright.

According to sportsbook.com, an Internet wagering site, 80 percent of the money-line betting in the Rams-Falcons game has been on St. Louis; 73 percent of the straight-up bets in the Vikings-Eagles game have gone for Minnesota; and a whopping 90 percent of money-line plays in the Colts-Patriots games have been placed on the Colts.

The underdogs are certainly the favorite plays this week.

This week's picks: Following an unprecedented 4-0 weekend against the number last week, I'll try to keep the hot streak alive with the Jets plus 8 1/2, the Falcons minus 7, the Vikings plus 7 1/2 and the Colts plus 1 1/2.

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