Columnist Jeff Haney: Divisional playoffs no longer easy pickings

Wednesday, Jan. 12, 2005 | 9:29 a.m.

Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Wednesday. Reach him at (702) 259-4041 or haney@lasvegassun.com.

This time last year, the dominance of home teams in the NFL divisional playoffs came to a crashing halt as all four road underdogs covered the point spread:

For more than a decade, bettors could breeze through the National Football League's divisional playoff week.

It was a simple plan: Put your money on each of the home favorites, lay the heavy wood, and take your winnings to the bank.

From 1993 through 2003, home teams were 35-9 straight-up and 25-17-2 against the point spread in the divisional playoffs, according to research by StatFox.

That's a 60 percent play against the number, betting blindly with no further handicapping or shopping for more advantageous, off-market lines.

Better yet, it was a trend that made perfect sense: The home team was well-rested, having enjoyed a week off to prepare while its opponent was fighting through a wild-card game.

Then came last year.

Home favorites went 0-4 against the point spread, as all four road underdogs covered, with two winning the game outright.

Las Vegas sports handicapper "Fairway" Jay Ginsbach does not expect home favorites to bounce right back this year.

Ginsbach was taking a hard look at only one favorite in this weekend's four games: the Pittsburgh Steelers minus-9 points against the New York Jets on Saturday.

"Pittsburgh is the only team that I feel comfortable saying is going to win this week," Ginsbach said. "Even though the Jets are the best defensive team of the four road teams, Pittsburgh is one of the top running teams in the league.

"The Jets are a little undersized, and I think they could have trouble running the ball this week. And if Pittsburgh does get the lead, they have the kind of defense that will shut down the opponent and not allow a backdoor cover."

In Saturday's National Football Conference game, the Atlanta Falcons are favored by 6 1/2 or 7 points against the St. Louis Rams, depending on where you shop in Las Vegas.

"Atlanta is fundamentally better than St. Louis," said Ginsbach, online at fairwayjay.com. "But if Atlanta gets in front, I'm not convinced they won't let (the Rams) back into it because of some question marks in their defensive secondary. ... If I did play Atlanta, it would be more of a play against the Rams."

Ginsbach said his preferred play in Sunday's Philadelphia Eagles-Minnesota Vikings game is "over" 47 1/2 points, as he foresees a shootout as long as the weather is not expected to present any problems.

"For the Vikings to win, they need to be plus-2, plus-3 in turnovers the way they were against Green Bay," Ginsbach said.

The marquee game of the weekend, Sunday's New England Patriots-Indianapolis Colts matchup, is perhaps the toughest to figure.

The Patriots opened 3-point favorites at some sports books, 2 1/2 at others, surprising some handicappers who expected a line of more than a field goal, considering how tough New England's home field can be late in the season, particularly for dome teams such as Indy.

It was a good call by oddsmakers, though, as most of the early money came in on the Colts, who are now 2-point underdogs in most spots.

Although the total of 52 points is the highest among the weekend's four games, Ginsbach expects a tactical match between the Pats and Colts, thanks in large part to the skills of the head coaches, New England's Bill Belichick and Indy's Tony Dungy.

"They are two of the best coaches as far as knowing how to dissect an offense and at least slow them down, if not stop them," Ginsbach said. "They have shown they're able to do that, time and time again."

Super Bowl XL

The Venetian has set down the gauntlet in the race for next season's best Super Bowl future-book odds.

The Strip resort, which came out on top in an analysis of this season's Las Vegas Super Bowl future books (Las Vegas Sun, Sept. 1, 2004), has released its odds for Super Bowl XL, scheduled for Feb. 5, 2006, at Ford Field in Detroit.

The study conducted by the Sun before the beginning of this season revealed the theoretical hold percentage (or "house edge") for the Venetian's Super Bowl future book was the best in the city at 25 percent. (The lower the number, the better it is for gamblers.)

In its 2005-06 Super Bowl future book, the Venetian lists the Patriots, Steelers and Eagles as co-favorites, each at 6-1. The Colts are the fourth choice at 7-1.

The house edge on the entire set of odds works out to 26 percent, a highly competitive figure.

Venetian oddsmakers took a stand in their odds to win next season's NFC championship, establishing the Eagles as a heavy 9-5 favorite and inviting gamblers to place their bets on the Falcons (6-1), Carolina Panthers (7-1) or Green Bay Packers (10-1), the second through fourth choices.

To win the AFC, the Patriots and Steelers are each 3-1; the Colts are 7-2.

BoDog Bowl?

This proposal doesn't have a shot.

It makes too much sense.

Seeking a solution to the dilemma faced by college football fans who want to see a playoff decide the national title, offshore sports book BoDog has pledged $50 million to establish a championship bowl game that this year would pit USC against Auburn, which both finished undefeated.

According to BoDog officials, each of the two schools would receive a $15 million scholarship fund for its participation, with the winner taking home an additional $15 million scholarship fund.

The other $5 million would be allocated to the NCAA Minority Opportunities and Interests Committee.

"We have over 150,000 clients that would love to see this game happen, and that does not account for the millions of people across the country that would also like to see this game," BoDog chief executive officer Calvin Ayre said.

Astonishingly, the NCAA, which no doubt harbors a great fondness for Costa Rica-based sports betting outfits, has not responded to the offer.

A new Daytona

NASCAR's blink-and-you-miss-it offseason ended this week with the start of drivers' testing for the Daytona 500 -- and auto racing bettors have a number options linked to the Feb. 20 season-opening race.

Dale Earnhardt is a 3-1 favorite to win Daytona, according to Station Casinos odds. Several creative propositions are also on the board, including the make of the winning car, the winning car's number and the first letter of the winning driver's name -- A through L is a minus 230 favorite (think Earnhardt, Jeff Gordon, Kevin Harvick).

Sun sports betting columnist Jeff Haney and professional gambler Alan Boston will be making college basketball picks at 10 p.m. Friday in a charity handicapping event hosted by Jimmy Vaccaro. The program airs on 920-AM live from the Riviera hotel-casino.