Panel: Future looks exciting, but consumers want reliability now

Friday, Jan. 7, 2005 | 11:03 a.m.

You may not recognize the next generation of cellular telephones when they arrive.

That's because they'll do a lot more than just provide a wireless communications link with somebody else; they'll have high-resolution cameras, MP3 music systems, optical scanners and global position system technology that will help others determine where you are built into them.

"I'm wondering when we're going to quit calling them phones," quipped International Consumer Electronics Show panelist Jeffrey Belk, senior vice president of marketing for Qualcomm Inc.

Belk and four others were asked to predict what the CES trade show floor of 2010 will look like. The session was among several presented Thursday at the opening day of CES at the Las Vegas Convention Center.

The four-day convention and trade show is expected to draw nearly 130,000 people to Las Vegas in an event that's open only to industry professionals.

"If we would have predicted five years ago what's available today, they probably would have locked us up in a rubber room," Belk said.

Belk and his associates sorted through some of the major technological breakthroughs of the last five years and tried to deduce what consumers would want to see next. They concluded that most want to get more bang for their high-tech bucks with devices that do more than what's currently available.

Panelists also suggested that consumers would enjoy seeing existing products work more reliably.

"How many of you have experienced a dropped call since you've been here?" asked Kevin Kahn, senior fellow and director of communications for Intel's Technology Lab. "I'm sure a lot of people just want to see what they have work better, including their wireless providers."

Panelists also said they felt the public would like their devices to be more compatible with each other and to cost less.

"Affordability and ease of use are two of the biggest issues we have," said panelist Rudy Provoost, chief executive officer of consumer electronics for Philips Electronics. "But I expect those bottlenecks will disappear."

Panelist Steven Schwartz, a consultant to General Dynamics for the U.S. Army's Future Force Warrior Program, expects robots and other labor-saving devices will be among the big products of future shows.

Asked to look even further ahead, Provoost predicted boosts in technology in health-monitoring systems and content systems that follow users from room to room: "Someday, (content transfer) may be embedded in the wallpaper," he said.

Belk predicted that business cards of the future would have bar codes or microchips for business contacts to download more information and Schwartz suggested that video games would advance so that on-screen sports performances would more closely emulate actual games as they are being played.

Panelists also looked deeply into their crystal balls for clues as to what products might be on their way out -- and they concluded that many would stick around because they've developed an audience.

"The more choices I have, the more convenient it's going to be for me," Schwartz said. As examples, panelists noted the technological advancements in presenting music, including MP3 technology, memory devices and Web-based music library systems. But no one predicted the demise of the compact disc because the format is so easy to use and so many consumers enjoy using them.

What about "paperless offices?"

Provoost said record numbers of newspapers continue to be sold despite the availability of news from Internet sites. Kahn said consumers continue to demand different modalities to receive their information.

But panelists finally went out on limbs to predict a few products that eventually would disappear. With data storage getting simpler, Belk predicted few low-capacity MP3 units on the market -- everything will have vast amounts of storage -- and he also suggested that 5-pound laptop computers eventually would go the way of the eight-track cartridge tape.

And, while every panelist expressed consternation about spam -- unwanted computer messages found in e-mail in-boxes -- no one had a solution for how the time-wasters could be eliminated.