Wednesday, Feb. 16, 2005 | 9:25 a.m.
Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Wednesday. Reach him at (702) 259-4041 or [email protected].
Odds provided by Station Casinos as of Tuesday:
Winning car number
0-23, -190
24-99, +160
Make of winning car
Ford or Dodge, +200
Chevy, -250
First letter of last name of winning driver
A-L, -230
M-Z, +185
Winning car number
odd, + 190
even, -240
Matchups
J. Gordon, even
Earnhardt, -130
J. Johnson, -140
M. Waltrip, + 110
Kahne, -105
Kenseth, -125
J. Burton, +110
Sadler, -140
T. Stewart, -130
Harvick, even
Riggs, +115
Nemechek, -145
Wallace, -115
M. Martin, -115
Optimal strategy for betting NCAA tournament futures says to select a dark-horse team that looks like a live underdog, bet on it at triple-digit odds sometime around Thanksgiving, and hope for the best.
Bettors looking for solid value in the race to pick the NCAA men's basketball tournament champion are not yet out of luck, though.
Even now, with just 25 days left until Selection Sunday, there's gold in them thar future books -- provided you shop hard and choose carefully.
Here's a rundown of all of the best odds -- along with some of the worst -- currently available in Las Vegas sports books on teams to win the NCAA tournament. The Final Four is scheduled to begin Saturday, April 2, in St. Louis.
For our purposes, we examined the top 20 teams -- not according to the Associated Press or the coaches' poll, but rather using the latest rankings created by Las Vegas handicapper Ted Sevransky (online at whocovers.com).
Odds were current as of Tuesday but can change by the minute, so double-check before wagering.
1. Illinois: The Illini, with a record of 25-0, are still 3-1 at the Venetian and the Golden Nugget. Avoid Harrah's, which has them at even money.
2. Kansas: Another likely top seed in the tournament, KU can be found at 10-1 at the Mirage and the Stardust. Avoid Harrah's (4-1).
3. Kentucky: Upended by South Carolina on Tuesday, the Wildcats are 22-1 at the Golden Nugget. The Imperial Palace (4-1) is saying it has all the Kentucky money it wants.
4. North Carolina: The Tar Heels are 7-2 at the Las Vegas Hilton, but only 3-2 at the Stardust.
5. Boston College: BC is still in the running for a No. 1 seed -- and it's a tempting 40-1 at the Las Vegas Hilton.
6. Wake Forest: Best odds in town are 10-1, at the Venetian, Imperial Palace and Golden Nugget. Avoid Harrah's (9-2).
7. Arizona: The Pac-10 leader is 32-1 at the Venetian, but a noncompetitive 8-1 at Harrah's.
8. Oklahoma State: The Hilton, Caesars Palace and the Golden Nugget all have the Cowboys at 15-1.
9. Louisville: Picked by Sun sports writer Rob Miech to advance to the title game, the Cardinals are attractively priced at 30-1 at the Hilton.
10. Duke: The Venetian offers 16-1 on the Blue Devils, best in the city.
11. Alabama: The talented oddsmaking crew at the Hilton has the Tide at 75-1 -- an intriguing number for a team likely to be a No. 3 or No. 4 seed.
12. Pittsburgh: The Panthers are 50-1 at the Venetian; the Stardust (10-1) says it doesn't need any more Pitt money.
13. Michigan State: The best odds on the Spartans are 40-1, at the Venetian and Caesars.
14. Washington: The Palms leads the pack, offering 35-1 on the Huskies. Not too shabby for a team projected as a No. 3 seed in the brackets.
15. Syracuse: Another team projected to snag a No. 3 spot, the Orange is 20-1 at the Hilton, tops in the city. Watch out for the 6-1 at the Stardust.
16. Pacific: Part of the "field" ("all others") bet at some properties, the Tigers are 300-1 at the Hilton and Caesars -- a likely overlay for a team projected by ESPN as a No. 7 seed.
17. Utah: John Kelly, host of the Stardust Line (720-AM, 8:30 a.m. weekdays), told listeners this week he has a piece of the Utes at 150-1. That juicy price has vanished, but Utah is still 100-1 at the Venetian.
18. Gonzaga: The Hilton and the Plaza both have the Bulldogs at 40-1, best in town.
19. Charlotte: The Palms has the 49ers at 300-1, which certainly looks like an overlay for a team projected by Fox Sports as a No. 6 seed.
20. DePaul: Projected as a No. 7 seed by Fox, the Demons can be had at 300-1 at the Venetian, Hilton and Palms.
(Full disclosure: Haney personally holds positions on Wake Forest at 15-1 and Arizona at 40-1.)
Daytona 500
While Dale Earnhardt Jr. is favored to win the Daytona 500 Sunday, Micah Roberts, sports book director at Palace Station, thinks a couple of other drivers could be worth a look.
Hendrick Motorsports teammates Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson might be the best plays this year, Roberts said.
"The (restrictor) plate program at Hendrick has caught up to, and maybe even passed, DEI's (Dale Earnhardt Inc.) duo of Dale Jr. and (Michael) Waltrip," Roberts said. "Last season Gordon won two of the four restrictor plate races, with Johnson finishing in the top five of three of those races."
While Roberts is picking against Earnhardt in the race, he acknowledged Earnhardt remains a heavy favorite among the betting public.
Earnhardt is listed at 3-1 to 7-2 in Las Vegas to win the race; Waltrip is about 8-1, Gordon 6-1 and Johnson 5-1.
Long-shot players would do well to consider Joe Nemechek (30-1 in Las Vegas), Greg Biffle (20-1) or Scott Riggs (100-1 or better), Roberts said.
"Because DEI doesn't appear to be the dominant beast that they have (been) in the past, this may be an opportunity for someone to sneak in an improbable victory like Ward Burton did a few years ago," Roberts said.
Hoops contest
Professional gambler Alan Boston squeaked by Ted Sevransky this past weekend in the Leroy's Handicapping Challenge college basketball betting tournament.
Both men went 2-3 against the spread in their five selections, with Boston winning by virtue of a tiebreaker.
Boston advances to the final, set for Feb. 25, where he will face the winner of this Friday's matchup between Nick Bogdanovich, sports book manager at the Golden Nugget, and handicapper Dave Scandaliato.
The program airs at 10 p.m. Friday on 920-AM live from the Riviera sports book.
Contestants are competing for $5,000 cash and $5,000 for charity.
There is no sanctioned betting on the outcome of the tournament. On the unofficial, "underground" line, Bogdanovich is a minus-130 favorite against Scandaliato this week.
All-star action
The Plaza has set odds on the winner of Saturday's 3-point Shootout at the NBA All-Star Game in Denver. Ray Allen is favored at 2-1, followed by Kyle Korver (3-1), Voshon Lenard (4-1), Quentin Richardson (5-1), Joe Johnson (6-1) and Vladimir Radmanovic (6-1).
In Sunday's game, the West is favored by 6 1/2 points against the East with a total of 259 points.
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