Columnist Jeff Haney: Handicappers: Think about fading world champions

Wednesday, Feb. 9, 2005 | 9:58 a.m.

Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Wednesday. Reach him at (702) 259-4041 or haney@lasvegassun.com.

Late in the evening of Super Bowl Sunday, the band Ratdog was performing at the House of Blues inside Mandalay Bay.

Early in the first set, they sang an old Garcia/Hunter anthem, "The Wheel," about the inevitability of change and the endless cycle of rebirth in an ever-fluctuating universe.

For some Las Vegas handicappers, the sentiment might as well apply to National Football League wagering.

Although the New England Patriots appear to be sitting on top of the world, with a freshly minted Super Bowl title and three NFL championships in the past four years, a couple of astute bettors figure this year is the perfect time to start betting against the Pats.

They maintain that in the NFL's own little fluctuating universe, teams with big bull's-eyes on their backs, such as the Patriots, are more likely to return to the pack than to remain miles ahead of their peers.

And the phenomenal amount of hype surrounding New England's achievements -- laudable as they are -- can only inflate the betting lines attached to the Pats, giving sharp bettors an opportunity to fire away against them.

The local professional gambler known as Fezzik plans to implement that strategy as soon as June, when sports books post over/under win totals for the 2005 NFL season.

He thinks the number of regular-season wins for the Patriots will come in at 11 1/2 or possibly 12 -- and he plans to play the "under."

"To all those who would make fun of me for recommending going against the Patriots, I know it's not hard to make a case in favor of the Super Bowlwinner, but basic strategy says to do just that," Fezzik said.

"There is no long, documented history that says keepplaying on a team that has won the Super Bowl, or two Super Bowls in a row. ... Remember, the season after they won their first Super Bowl (in the 2001 season), the Patriots only went 9-7."

Fezzik likes his position even more due to the fact that Patriots defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel and offensive coordinator Charlie Weis are leaving to become head coaches elsewhere, meaning head coach Bill Belichick needs two new top assistants.

"Before this season, the Patriots upgraded," said Fezzik, online at fezziksplace.com. "They added (running back) Corey Dillon, and their coaching staff stayed intact. But that is the exception to the norm when you look at history."

Fezzik, a specialist in proposition bets, scored big in the Super Bowl with many of his recommendations, including "no overtime," "no safety" and "there will be a score in the final two minutes of the first half," among others.

He said he wouldn't be surprised if the Patriots don't make a return trip to the Super Bowl a year from now.

"It becomes very hard to motivate yourself to climb a 'lesser mountain,' " he said.

Las Vegas handicapper Patrick Bartucci also projects the over/under on Patriots wins at close to 12.

He too acknowledged the tendency of power in the NFL to steadily change hands rather than remain concentrated among a select few, particularly from a betting perspective. Bartucci stressed the signifcance of both coordinators leaving the team as well.

"A lot can happen between now and then, but I think it'll be around 11 1/2, and I think they'll make you pay more for the over to try to get you to take the under," said Bartucci, online at patricksfreepress.com.

Bartucci, who sent out "under 48 points" in the Super Bowl to his clients as a strong play last week, said he's likely to take the books up on that offer.

"If I can get even money or plus money on under 11 1/2, I'll strongly consider it," Bartucci said.

Palace Station sports book director Micah Roberts, for one, is not convinced the Patriots are due for any kind of a fall.

His warning to bettors planning to play against the Pats: Tread carefully.

"I don't know; I think they tried that last year and it didn't work out so well," Roberts said. "They still have a great running back and a championship-caliber quarterback."

Indeed, the over/under on wins by the Patriots this past season was set at 10 1/2 in Las Vegas sports books, with a higher price on the under side, yet New England went 14-2 in the regular season.

Against the point spread, the Patriots finished with a record of 11-3-2.

A look at other relevant results from recent years yields a mixed bag for bettors:

As so often happens in gambling, guess you could say if the thunder don't get ya, then the lightning will.

"What makes these Patriots so tough is that Belichick has such a great system in place," Roberts said. "You see other teams try to copy it, but it just doesn't work for them.

"It's similar to the way NFC East teams dominated in the '80s and '90s with huge offensive linemen and other teams tried to copy that, then teams started drafting big defensive players and that type of scheme dominated for a while ...

"When you do something well, others are going to try to copy it. That's just the evolution of football."

Hoops contest

Professional gambler Alan Boston faces handicapper Ted Sevransky at 10 p.m. Friday in the first semifinal of the Leroy's Handicapping Challenge college basketball betting tournament.

The remaining contestants are competing for a $5,000 prize plus $5,000 for charity.

The show airs on 920-AM live from the Riviera sports book.

While there is no official betting on the outcome of the handicapping tournament, whenever gamblers gather they'll set lines on just about anything. So on the unofficial, underground betting line, Boston is a minus-125 favorite against Sevransky.

Fezzik said he agrees that Boston, a college hoops expert, should be favored -- "but I make him a minus-200 favorite in time of possession, with Teddy plus-170," Fezzik said of Boston, a loquacious sort.