Columnist Jeff Haney on beating the odds by using correlated parlays on this weekend’s NFL games

Friday, Dec. 30, 2005 | 7:49 a.m.

Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Monday, Friday (gaming) and Wednesday (poker). Reach him at (702) 259-4041 or haney@lasvegassun.com.

It's usually difficult to make a case for betting a two-team parlay -- a wager involving two separate events in which both must win for the ticket to cash.

Most sports books pay out winning two-team parlays at odds of 13-5, even though the actual odds of the two events happening are 3-1 against. That gives the casino an advantage of 10 percent -- about twice the edge the house enjoys in roulette.

An exception comes if you can find a parlay in which the two events are not totally independent, but rather linked, or "correlated," in some way.

Bettors call these "correlated parlays" and actively seek them out for a pretty obvious reason: A solidly correlated parlay will give the gambler the "best of it" -- that is, it takes the advantage from the house and gives it to the bettor.

In his book "Win More, Lose Less," sports bettor Don Peszynski uses the example of a storm bringing snow and high winds that's expected to hit Cleveland and Pittsburgh -- both of which happen to be hosting NFL games. A parlay involving the "under" in both games could be correlated, and advantageous for the bettor.

If there's normally a 25 percent chance of both games going "under" (odds of 3-1 against), Peszynski estimates that even an extra five percentage points (from 25 percent to 30 percent) can turn the play into an expected winner.

Another form of correlation involves playoff implications. This can often be found at the end of the NFL season -- including this weekend's card.

The Kansas City Chiefs, for instance, can clinch a playoff berth Sunday -- but only with a win against the Cincinnati Bengals, a loss by the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday and a loss by the San Diego Chargers on Saturday.

So if the Chargers beat the Denver Broncos on Saturday, the Chiefs' playoffs hopes are wiped out, meaning Kansas City will have little to play for as an 8-point favorite against the Bengals.

I see a correlation between the Chargers winning outright against the Broncos and the Bengals' chances as an underdog against the Chiefs.

I'm not suggesting the Chiefs will fail to "play hard" if the Chargers win. The players on the field for Kansas City will be trying their best to win. It's just that the entire dynamic of a game can change when there's a playoff spot at stake.

And the oddsmakers evidently agree. Once Saturday's Chargers-Broncos game kicks off, most if not all Las Vegas sports books will stop taking bets on Sunday's Chiefs-Bengals game. Then, once the result of the Chargers game is known, they'll resume taking wagers on the Chiefs game, possibly after adjusting the point spread.

If there is no correlation, why bother taking the game off the board?

Here's how I'm playing it: Give me a two-teamer pairing the Chargers on the money line (that is, to win outright regardless of the point spread) with the Bengals plus 8 points. That would pay a total of about $225 on a $100 wager.

You could also pair the Chargers money line with the Bengals money line ($415 for a $100 wager); or even the Broncos money line with the Chiefs money line (about $700 for a $100 wager).

Other possibly correlated parlays to consider this weekend, based on the playoff picture sorting itself out: