Columnist Jeff Haney: On handicapper Patrick Bartucci and his expert knowlege of Pac-10 teams

Friday, Dec. 23, 2005 | 8:25 a.m.

Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Monday, Friday (gaming) and Wednesday (poker). Reach him at (702) 259-4041 or haney@lasvegassun.com.

A specialist in analyzing Pac-10 games, Las Vegas sports handicapper Patrick Bartucci has done as fine a job as anyone I have seen in making money betting the conference he considers the best in college football.

So when Bartucci says he has an opinion on each of the four remaining bowl games that involve Pac-10 teams, I'll be sure to listen.

In the season's biggest clash, the Jan. 4 Rose Bowl between Southern Cal and Texas to determine college football's national championship, Bartucci personally bet the Trojans laying 6 points, then 6 1/2 points, then 7 points.

The point spread has been bet up to anywhere from 7 1/2 to 8 1/2 points in Las Vegas sports books, but Bartucci thinks USC -- which he considers arguably the best team in college football history -- will cover with ease. He predicts a final score of USC 44, Texas 27.

Texas and its Big 12 Conference counterparts play a "slower, more primitive brand of football" than the Trojans and their Pac-10 opponents, Bartucci said. The Longhorns stand little chance against USC's superior size, speed, depth, strength and coaching, he said.

A year ago, Bartucci made a similarly enthusiastic recommendation on USC in their BCS title matchup against Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl, and the Trojans won 55-19 to easily cover the spread as a small favorite.

"Texas is a bit better than last year's Big 12 sacrificial lamb, but not by much," Bartucci said,

Other bowl games involving the Pac-10 on which Bartucci has taken a stance:

* Holiday Bowl, Dec. 29, play on Oregon minus 3 points against Oklahoma: The Ducks have won seven games in a row and will be motivated to prove they belong in a more prominent bowl game, according to Bartucci's analysis.

"They feel slighted by the BCS, and they're going to show that Oklahoma is not on the same level as them," said Bartucci, who is online at patricksfreepress.com. "Haloti Ngata, the conference's defensive player of the year, in that defensive line is going to be too much for Oklahoma."

Oregon has scored 27 or more points in every game but one -- a 43-13 loss to USC -- and when the Sooners went up against a Pac-10 opponent, they were soundly defeated by UCLA in September, Bartucci pointed out.

* Insight Bowl, Dec. 27, play on Arizona State minus 10 1/2 points against Rutgers: While the Scarlet Knights are happy just to be in any bowl game, the Sun Devils, like Oregon, are eager to prove they belong in a bigger and better one. Look out.

"Arizona State has way too much offense in a pro-style conference for Rutgers, and Rutgers does not impress me at all," said Bartucci, who projects a margin of victory of more than two touchdowns. "The game is in Phoenix although it's not a home game per se for Arizona State (as it takes place at Bank One Ballpark). Rutgers is excited about being there, but that's half the problem. They might be overwhelmed."

Another factor is that Sun Devils coach Dirk Koetter just had his contract extended, and he'll be looking to return the favor to the alumni and his bosses with an inspired effort, Bartucci said.

* Sun Bowl, Dec. 30, play on UCLA minus 3 points against Northwestern: The Bruins want to get rid of the bitter taste left by a 66-19 loss to USC in their regular-season finale, and will take out their frustrations on the Wildcats, said Bartucci, who gives UCLA an edge on both offense and defense.

"I can't ignore what Arizona State of the Pac-10 did to Northwestern earlier this year," Bartucci said, referring to a 52-21 trouncing in September.