Columnist Jeff Haney: On handicapper Jay Ginsbach, who thinks it’s time to go to the ‘dogs

Friday, Dec. 16, 2005 | 9:17 a.m.

Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Monday, Friday (gaming) and Wednesday (poker). Reach him at (702) 259-4041 or haney@lasvegassun.com.

This has been a year of living dangerously for underdog bettors, with favorites covering the point spread in the NFL at an unheard-of rate of 58 percent.

But 'dogs finally showed some life last weekend, and Las Vegas sports handicapper "Fairway" Jay Ginsbach says they'll be biting again Sunday.

"In betting the NFL this time of year, it's wise to look toward the underdogs," Ginsbach said. "In the last three weeks (of the regular season), the key is to single out a game where a team that's perceived as 'bad' by the public is still going to put forth a strong effort."

If you can do that, you'll not only find yourself on the correct betting side of a game, but also often get an extra 1 to 1 1/2 points in point-spread value, in Ginsbach's estimation.

In the weekend's marquee game, Ginsbach is recommending a wager on the San Diego Chargers as 7 1/2-point underdogs against the unbeaten Indianapolis Colts.

Although the 13-0 Colts would like to make history by joining the 1972 Miami Dolphins as the only teams to finish a season undefeated, they have already clinched a division title, a first-round playoff bye and home field through the playoffs.

So Indianapolis coach Tony Dungy might decide to rest weakside linebacker Cato June and defensive tackle Corey Simon, two key defensive stars who have been beset by injuries, Ginsbach said.

The Chargers, coming off a 23-21 loss to the Dolphins in which they were favored by double digits, bring an 8-5 record into the RCA Dome and are facing an intense fight to earn a playoff spot.

"I think San Diego has more on the line this week," said Ginsbach, who is online at sportsmemo.com. "You're going to see a Chargers team that brings everything they have to this game."

Sunday's matchup features four of the sport's elite players at the glamour positions, with Indy quarterback Peyton Manning and running back Edgerrin James squaring off against San Diego's Drew Brees and LaDainian Tomlinson.

Ginsbach gives the Chargers an edge in the running game and said they figure to execute well-balanced offensive and defensive game plans Sunday.

The point spread in last week's Colts game against the Jacksonville Jaguars jumped around a bit, with gamblers betting Indy up from a 7 1/2-point favorite to at least 9 before the line settled at 8 points -- which turned out to be the Colts' margin of victory.

If this week's line moves before kickoff, Ginsbach projected it will go one way: down to 7, as money shows at the betting windows for the Chargers.

He's betting against the Colts this week, but "I still think they're quite good," Ginsbach deadpanned. Indianapolis is a heavy favorite to win the Super Bowl, and the team's dominance is a main reason the AFC is favored by 11 1/2 points against the NFC in the Super Bowl in Las Vegas sports books.

Other underdogs Ginsbach likes:

-- The Dallas Cowboys plus 3 points against the Washington Redskins. Ginsbach sees the game being decided by "mistakes" -- turnovers or sloppy play -- and thinks the Redskins will make more of them.

-- The New York Jets plus 9 against the Dolphins. Although he has considered the Jets a "play-against" team for most of the season, Ginsbach said at 9 points the line has become too inflated.

-- The Cleveland Browns and the Philadelphia Eagles, both getting about a field goal on the road against the Oakland Raiders and the St. Louis Rams. Both fall into a category Ginsbach monitors in the final four weeks of the NFL season. "If both teams are off a loss and the home team is favored by 3 or less, I play against them," he said. "If those teams were worth anything, they'd be favored by more than a field goal."

At 9 tonight at the Stardust, local professional gambler Fezzik (one name only, please) faces Florida-based handicapper Marc Lawrence in the championship round of the Stardust Invitational handicapping contest. The winner collects the contest's $10,000 prize.

There is no sanctioned betting on the outcome, but Fezzik opened a minus-145 favorite (risk $1.45 to win $1) against Lawrence on the "underground" line here. That is a huge number in a head-to-head matchup involving only seven selections, an indication of the respect Fezzik commands among bettors and oddsmakers.

Jeff Haney can be reached at 259-4041 or at haney@lasvegassun.com.