Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

Columnist Jeff Haney: Some pretty ugly results in football handicapping contests, but you shouldn’t knock it

Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Monday, Friday (gaming) and Wednesday (poker). Reach him at (702) 259-4041 or [email protected].

Surely some of the contestants in Las Vegas' two big football handicapping invitationals are the real McCoy.

It's just that so far they've been more like Sherman McCoy, Tom Wolfe's protagonist in "The Bonfire of the Vanities," who was always "hemorrhaging money," in the novelist's memorable phrase.

Through 13 weeks, the 16 entrants in the $10,000 Stardust Invitational have compiled a record of 79-96-7, 45 percent. Their "best bets" have gone 12-12-2.

It hasn't been pretty in the Leroy's $50,000 "Money Talks" contest, either. Through 13 weeks, its 16 entrants are 93-97-5, 49 percent. The Leroy's contestants are down more than 35 betting units as they rank their selections according to units wagered.

The break-even point in sports betting, against the standard vigorish of minus-110 (risk $1.10 to win $1), is a winning rate of 52.38 percent.

True, any given week constitutes what the math guys call a "short sample." But to paraphrase the Greek (not Jimmy), "With regard to excellence, it is not enough to know, but we must use it."

Talk is cheap, in other words. Results at the window matter.

Bettors who follow the invitationals are entitled to voice their frustration, and also to a sober examination of what's going wrong.

For a sober approach, consider looking elsewhere, but we can at least offer our take ...

1. Heads or tails?

With an overall record of 172-193 (47 percent), it's tempting to conclude that at least some of the handicappers are essentially "coin flippers" -- that is, a large sample of their picks would be indistinguishable from random results.

Which ones? It's impossible to determine given only a handful of picks, but protect yourself at all times. If a tout wants your money, assume he's a coin flipper until something convinces you otherwise.

And watch out for marketing based solely on who's "hot" (love that word) in the past week, or who went 8-3 in his past 11 selections.

That kind of hype must hold great appeal to gamblers who have all of the sophistication of a Caveman Keno addict.

I'm reminded of a gambler described by Bob Dancer in his book "Million Dollar Video Poker." This genius made her decisions on which cards to hold based on how flushes "were running" that day on a particular video poker machine. Lucky for her, she had a rich husband, Dancer concluded.

This is the same mentality that prompts actual grown men and women in American society to pay attention -- in all seriousness -- to the "flow of the cards" at a blackjack table. ("Hey, you took my 6!")

Yes, and evidently some people cheerfully hand over their credit card number because a tout is 6-1 in his last seven. Hey, he's hot! That's 85.714 percent!

In the immortal words of Mr. Hand, "What are you, people? On dope?"

2. The oddsmakers are really smart

You'll hear blowhards crowing about all the so-called "mistakes" on the betting board each week, but Las Vegas oddsmakers do a superb job making numbers.

Anyone who disagrees -- by definition -- will have an extensive documented record of better than 55 percent picking games against the point spread.

And as the Las Vegas sports bettor Fezzik recently pointed out, those people are much too busy expanding their empire of upscale golf resorts to worry about a couple of silly handicapping contests.

3. A game of inches

Successful sports bettors work on a razor-thin profit margin.

A pet dog will hit precisely 50 percent of his picks against the point spread. A professional gambler will hit about 55 percent over time. The break-even point is right in the middle.

So over, say, 182 games (13 weeks, 14 picks a week), the records of the schnauzer, the pro, and the guy who breaks even would look remarkably alike. Winning streaks of 6-1 and losing streaks of 1-6 would be common for all of them.

There are bettors in Las Vegas who use hard work and discipline to turn a profit wagering on sports.

Funny, but those people aren't ragging on the contestants in the invitationals.

That's probably because they know how tough it is to beat this racket.

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