Columnist Jon Ralston: An early gubernatorial glance

Friday, Aug. 19, 2005 | 6:07 a.m.

Jon Ralston hosts the news discussion program Face to Face on Las Vegas ONE and publishes the Ralston Report. He can be reached at (702) 870-7997 or at ralston@vegas.com.

WEEKEND EDITION

August 20-21, 2005

Fifteen months before Nevada elects a new governor and decides its fiscal future, voters are schizophrenic -- they support education funding but they also back spending caps; they like the man who proposed the largest tax increase in history but make the man who opposed it the gubernatorial favorite, and they love Oscar (but not as much as he thinks) but don't necessarily want him to be governor.

Those are the findings of a recent poll conducted for the newest agent provocateur of Nevada politics, Chancellor Jim Rogers, who hired Strategic Surveys to interview 806 likely voters. The results, which have a margin of error of 3.5 percent, probably didn't give Rogers much insight into whether he should run as an independent. (No one knows who the TV mogul is. And I think, right now, that Rogers leans against the race. But even if he doesn't get in, he will raise money to beat Gibbons.) There are plenty of interesting numbers to analyze, even though the horse race results are soft and reflective of a lack of name identification that most of the candidates will be able to purchase -- Gibbons has seven figures, some of the others have six. Here are some of the results with brief, albeit incandescent analysis:

Goodman could be suffering from the Vegashate that afflicts some of those northern folks -- only half the people in Washoe know him and of those who do, more dislike him (28 percent unfavorable) than like him (25 percent). Goodman, as natural and effective a campaigner as the state has seen, might be able to change those numbers in a campaign. But he also is a perfect lightning rod for whatever fears the northerners have that the Clark folks want to take over the state (as we do). I still say Goodman won't get in, because, unlike mayor, governor is a real job and he doesn't want it. One sign of weakness for Titus: She and Goodman are in a dead heat among women, a demographic group she needs to carry.

The rurals do matter. In this match-up, it should be noted again, Titus only wins by 44-40 among women. Gibbons even does well against supposed southern juggernaut Goodman in Clark County (he loses only 41-39) but crushes His Honor in Washoe (54-22) and the rurals (66-16). Gibson to a lesser extent and Perkins to a tremendous extent will have to spend a ton of early cash on garnering name recognition to move up in these polls. If they don't, they will find donors wary.

Bottom line of the poll, folks: Gibbons is tough but not unbeatable, although Democrats have a serious problem statewide and they better start making friends in Ely, Gabs and Mina. If Goodman gets in, he's an immediate factor, but he may not be as potent as he and his sycophants believe. Gibson needs more name recognition (and he can buy it), and Perkins needs a jolt (a campaign announcement would help).

And, finally, the voters need psychotherapy. And I know someone who thinks he might have just the treatment they ordered. His name is Jim Rogers.