Columnist Jeff Haney: Fantastic futures: Hilton is tops for baseball bettors

Wednesday, April 20, 2005 | 9:36 a.m.

Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Wednesday. Reach him at (702) 259-4041 or haney@lasvegassun.com.

We surveyed 14 major Las Vegas sports books and analyzed the house edge in each of their World Series future books.

The larger the house edge, the worse it is for the bettor.

Generally, gamblers are better off making their future-book wagers at sports books with a smaller house edge.

This list ranks the 14 sports books in order of best to worst from the bettor's perspective:

Sports book.....Edge (pct.)

1. Las Vegas Hilton.....28.1

2. Plaza.....35.5

3. Venetian.....35.9

4. Palms.....36.4

5. Caesars.....39.8

6. Stardust.....40.5

7. Golden Nugget.....41.6

8. Imperial Palace.....42.2

9. Mirage.....48.5

10. Mandalay Bay.....50

11. Stations.....51.7

12. Leroy's.....52.3

13. Coast.....57.5

14. Harrah's....68.8

The Las Vegas Hilton sports book has the best overall odds for baseball bettors planning to make a wager on the winner of this year's World Series, an analysis by the Sun shows.

The survey examined the theoretical hold percentage -- or "house edge" -- of the World Series future books at 14 major Las Vegas sports books.

House edge expresses, as a percentage, the amount of money a sports book is expected to keep after paying out winning wagers.

The lower the house edge, the more favorable it is for bettors. The higher the house edge, the worse it is for bettors. (See "Determining house edge" for formula.)

Among 2005 World Series future books, the Hilton led the way with a house edge of 28.1 percent. The New York Yankees are a 3-1 shot to win the World Series at the Hilton; in most other sports books the odds on the Yanks are 2-1 or even lower. Other highlights in the Hilton's future book include the Los Angeles Angels at 12-1, the Houston Astros at 40-1 and the San Francisco Giants at 30-1 -- all prices the best in town.

Other books with a competitive house edge in their World Series future book are the Plaza (35.5 percent), the Venetian (35.9 percent), the Palms (36.4 percent) and Caesars Palace (39.8 percent).

The Sun conducted a similar survey last fall (see Sept. 1, 2004, issue) that examined Super Bowl future books. The Hilton also scored well there, checking in with a house edge of 30 percent, second only to the Venetian (25 percent).

The industry standard is generally considered to be in the range of 40 or 50 percent; anything lower is considered quite competitive.

Not too far off the 40 percent mark in their World Series future books were the Stardust (40.5 percent), the Golden Nugget (41.6 percent) and the Imperial Palace (42.2 percent).

Coming in with middle-of-the-road scores were the Mirage (48.5 percent), Mandalay Bay (50 percent), Stations (51.7 percent) and Leroy's (52.3 percent).

Leroy's did show an improvement from the fall, when it checked in with a house edge of 60 percent in its Super Bowl future book.

Coast, which was hurt by its 7-5 odds on the Yankees, among the worst in town, came in at 57.5 percent.

Harrah's, as they would say in the Daily Racing Form charts, was much the worst, with a house edge of 68.8 percent. Among the lowlights in Harrah's future book are the Giants at 3-1 (ouch), the Chicago Cubs at 5-2 and the New York Mets at 6-1.

Harrah's also brought up the rear in the Super Bowl futures survey with a house edge of 71 percent.

House edge is a valuable tool because it provides a big-picture look at how competitive a sports book's prices are, from the top of the board to the bottom. For instance, a book might have very low odds on a particular team but make up for it by raising the prices on other teams.

A high house edge, however, indicates that a sports book is offering poor odds across the board.

Tiger props

It's a tossup whether Tiger Woods will win one more major tournament or finish the year with just a single major victory, according to a golf proposition at the Las Vegas Hilton.

After his victory at the Masters, the odds on Woods finishing with exactly one major win opened at 10-11, or minus-110 (bettors risk $1.10 to win $1). The odds on Woods finishing with exactly two major victories were also 10-11.

The odds were 8-1 he'll win three majors and 30-1 he'll win all four.

The U.S. Open is scheduled for June 16-19 in Pinehurst, N.C.; the British Open July 14-17 at St. Andrews; and the PGA Championship Aug. 11-14 at Baltusrol Golf Club in Springfield, N.J.

At Caesars Palace, the price on exactly one major is even money; it's 9-5 Woods will win exactly two majors; 6-1 exactly three majors; and 35-1 all four.

Pinnacle Sports, an offshore book based in Curacao, has a similar prop on the number of majors Woods will win this year, with higher odds on the longer shots but a shorter price -- minus-130 -- on Woods finishing with exactly one major victory. At Pinnacle, Woods is plus-164 to win exactly two majors; plus-1067 to win exactly three majors; and 45-1 to win four majors.

NFL Draft

The Vikings are heavily favored to select a wide receiver with their first-round pick in this weekend's NFL Draft, and it would be a minor upset if Matt Jones of Arkansas goes in the first round, according to odds at Pinnacle.

The odds are minus-310 that the Vikings will choose a wide receiver in the first round; it's plus-280 (bettors win $2.80, plus their original stake back, for each $1 they wager) they will not.

The Vikings, who have the No. 7 pick, traded Randy Moss to Oakland and are expected to take Braylon Edwards of Michigan or Mike Williams of USC if either receiver is still available.

Jones starred at quarterback for Arkansas but has switched positions, taken on a nickname, "Freak," and is projected to play receiver in the NFL. The odds are minus-138 Jones will not be selected in the first round; it's plus-128 he will. In one mock draft, The Sporting News speculated the Pittsburgh Steelers will pick Jones at No. 30 in the first round and make him their latest conversion project.

Among other draft props:

Betting on the NFL Draft is not permitted in Nevada because of regulations that stipulate wagers must be based on the outcome of an athletic contest.

Fight game

Station Casinos are offering what's likely the best price in the world on Floyd Mayweather to win his junior welterweight showdown June 25 against Arturo Gatti in Atlantic City.

Mayweather is minus-360 at Stations, with Gatti plus-280. Other books that have posted an early line on the fight have Mayweather favored by minus-400 or better.

Mayweather recently said he believes he's an "A-plus fighter," but Gatti is only a "C-plus fighter" -- an assessment that would be easy to dismiss as trash talk except that it could prove quite accurate.

While we wouldn't go so far as to agree with Mayweather's characterization of Gatti as a "bum," we do foresee the betting line on the favorite going significantly higher than minus-360 by the opening bell.

Plaza picks

Sports book director Lou D'Amico continues to make the Plaza a best bet downtown with competitive odds and creative props, the latest of which focus on the Kentucky Derby.

The over/under on the number of horses to start the Derby has been set at 18, with a premium of minus-200 on the "over."

The over/under on the mutuel payoff for the winner is set at $19.60, minus-140 on the over.

The over/under on the winning time in the Derby is 2:02.00, minus-135 on the over.

Another prop asks if Nick Zito will be the winning trainer in the Derby: "Yes" is plus-120, no minus-150.

The props are also available at the Vegas Club.

Caesars also has some Derby props, and has the winning time over/under set at 2:02.20, minus-140 on the under.

Both properties offer a prop asking if there will be a Triple Crown winner this year. At Caesars, the "No" is minus-1000, yes is plus-700. At the Plaza, it's minus-1100 on the no, plus-800 on the yes.

As part of parent company Barrick Gaming's effort to attract Hispanic customers, the Plaza also recently began posting odds on worldwide soccer matches, and showing the games on its 62-inch, high-definition television screens.

Among other sports books that regularly offer betting lines on soccer are the Las Vegas Hilton, the Palms and Terrible's.

Aggressive oddmakers are continually adjusting the odds, both upward and downward, in their future books in an effort to attract money from bettors.

For example, here are the opening odds along with the current odds to win the World Series as posted in the Las Vegas Hilton sports book (odds are "to 1"):

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