Columnist Jeff Haney: Here are 19 starting pitchers to bet against

Wednesday, April 13, 2005 | 9:16 a.m.

Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Wednesday. Reach him at (702) 259-4041 or haney@lasvegassun.com.

Some baseball bettors, to prepare for the early going of the season, work to identify starting pitchers who might be worth backing at the windows -- maybe they're "sleepers," or up-and-comers, or primed for a breakout year.

It's a laudable pursuit.

But we'll try the opposite tack.

We identified 19 major league starters who we're inclined to "fade" -- that is, bet against their team when they're pitching.

For this exercise, the analysis was based on a single criterion: how the hits-to-innings pitched ratio of each man changed from 2003 and 2004. We were looking for pitchers who allowed less than one hit per inning, on average, in 2003, but more than one hit per inning in 2004.

The idea, for betting purposes, is a variation on the "overrated household name" theme. We're betting that the starters who fall into this category -- many of them "name brands" -- have slipped from the peak of their career, but that the gambling public has not adjusted its opinion of them even as the pitchers continue a subtle downward slide.

That creates extra value in the line for bettors playing against them, especially when they're favorites.

As a caveat, remember that there's more to baseball handicapping than starting pitching, and there's more to handicapping starting pitching than just hits/inning pitched ratio.

Tread carefully when considering making an investment in these guys.

National League

Tim Hudson, Atlanta Braves: In 2003, Hudson's hits/innings pitched (H/IP) ratio was a superb 197/240, yet it slipped to 194/188 2/3 last year. That's plus-43 to minus-5 1/3, or a "swing" of 48 1/3.

Hudson missed the month of July with a muscle strain and looked shaky in the second half of the season -- two more danger signs.

He struggled in his first start this season, allowing six hits and four walks in five innings against the Florida Marlins, but looked solid Tuesday against the Washington Nationals as a minus-200 favorite.

Mike Hampton, Braves: In 2003, Hampton's H/IP ratio was 186/190; in 2004 it was 198/172 1/3, for a swing of 29 2/3.

He has proved me wrong this year, looking sharp as Atlanta has won both of his starts, once as a favorite and once as an underdog.

Dontrelle Willis, Florida Marlins: The league's hitters caught up with the 2003 rookie of the year, as his H/IP ratio went from 148/160 2/3 to 210/197, a swing of 25 2/3. He reportedly looked outstanding in spring training, though, and opened the regular season with a shutout of the Nationals as a minus-160 favorite.

Randy Wolf, Philadelphia Phillies: In 2003, Wolf's H/IP ratio was 176/200; it slipped to 145/136 2/3 last year, a swing of 32 1/3.

Esteban Loaiza, Washington Nationals: In a "career year" in 2003, Loaiza's H/IP ratio was 196/226 1/3. He returned to form last year at 217/183, a swing of 64 1/3 -- tied for the largest swing on this list.

Mark Redman, Pittsburgh Pirates: Redman's H/IP ratio went from 172/190 2/3 in 2003 to 218/191 in 2004, a swing of 45 2/3. In his first start he looked like the 2003 Redman, pitching well though the Pirates lost to the San Diego Padres.

Kip Wells, Pirates: In 2003, Wells had a H/IP ratio of 171/197 1/3; it slipped to 145/138 1/3 in 2004, a swing of 33.

Wells has pitched poorly in two starts this season, losing both outings, once as a favorite and once as an underdog.

Adam Eaton, Padres: Eaton barely made the list, with a swing of only 14 2/3 from 2003 to 2004.

Brian Lawrence, Padres: Lawrence's H/IP ratio slipped from 206/210 2/3 to 226/203, a swing of 27 2/3.

American League

Sidney Ponson, Baltimore Orioles: Ponson's swing checked in at 54 1/3, thanks largely to a H/IP ratio of 265/215 2/3 last year. In his first outing this year, he allowed nine hits and two walks in 5 2/3 innings, but got plenty of run support as the O's beat the New York Yankees 12-5.

Tim Wakefield, Boston Red Sox: Along with Eaton, Wakefield barely made the list. His H/IP ratio went from 193/202 1/3 to 197/188 1/3, a swing of 19 1/3.

Mike Mussina, Yankees: Mussina's H/IP ratio went from 192/214 2/3 to 178/164 2/3, a swing of 36. The Yankees have lost both of Mussina's starts this season as favorites of minus-132 and minus-167.

Roy Halladay, Toronto Blue Jays: Though his "swing figure" checked in at 20, Halladay has pitched decently in two outings this season, allowing 16 hits in 13 innings but walking only one batter while striking out nine.

Kevin Millwood, Cleveland Indians: Millwood's H/IP ratio went from 210/222 to 155/141, a swing of 26. He came under fire for his conditioning with the Phillies -- another danger sign -- before joining the Tribe in the offseason.

Bartolo Colon, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: Colon's H/IP ratio went from 223/242 to 215/208 1/3, a swing of 25 2/3. He has been mediocre at best in two outings, allowing 17 hits and six walks in 12 2/3 innings this season. The Angels won his first start as a minus-160 favorite and lost his second as a minus-230 favorite.

Barry Zito, Athletics: After posting a H/IP ratio of 186/231 2/3 in 2003, Zito slipped to a pedestrian 216/213 last year, a swing of 48 2/3. He has not pitched particularly well this year, with Oakland losing both of his starts, once as a small underdog and once as a big favorite.

Ryan Franklin, Seattle Mariners: Franklin's H/IP ratio went from 199/212 to 224/200 1/3, a swing of 36 2/3. He did pitch well in his first start this year as he fights for a permanent spot in Seattle's rotation.

Jamie Moyer, Mariners: Moyer's H/IP ratio went from 199/215 to 217/202, a swing of 31. He has had mixed results this season, with Seattle winning his first start and losing his second, both times as a favorite in the betting line.

Hideo Nomo, Tampa Bay Devil Rays: Nomo's H/IP ratio went from 175/218 1/3 to 105/84, a swing of 64 1/3, tied with Loaiza for the highest on the list. He won his first outing this season against the Oakland Athletics, after which Eric Chavez said, according to Fox Sports, that Nomo had "nothing. ... Probably the worst stuff I've ever seen. The guy throws 83-84 (mph). ... You think that we could get 20 hits off a guy like that. That's the way it is in baseball. Sometimes it's hard to explain."