Friday, April 1, 2005 | 9:38 a.m.
The Great
Frank Burlison, veteran writer
The Long Beach Press-Telegram's college hoops writer will get inducted into the U.S. Basketball Writers Association Hall of Fame during its annual ceremony Monday in St. Louis.
It's a grand and deserving honor for one of the game's expert voices, valued at every level of the game, who will attend his 20th consecutive Final Four this weekend.
The Good
Duke
Everybody but Daniel Ewing returns next season, and bluechippers Josh McRoberts and Greg Paulus led the East to victory over the West on Wednesday in the McDonald's All-American game.
The Blue Devils are the 2005-06 preseason No. 1 before this season's champ is even crowned.
The Bad
Tennessee
Jerry Green was the architect of the high point of the program, in 2000, when it won two games in the NCAA tournament for the first time. His reign ended unceremoniously, and Buzz Peterson was sacked after a four-year NCAA drought.
Bruce Pearl, from Wisconsin-Milwaukee, is the latest to take over a hopeless situation -- he's overshadowed by both the school's football and women's basketball programs. At least it's a fat salary.
The Ugly
Roy Williams, North Carolina coach
Please, Roy, bypass the Mississippi River this weekend. Your past Final Four squads are 0-for-2 in national championships after you've expectorated into the mighty creek, so just walk on by those banks in St. Louis.
Who will be singing in St. Louis come late Monday night, possibly even celebrating into the wee hours over some Slingers at the Courtesy Diner in mid-town off Interstate 40?
(Any Midwestern native knows the Slinger, a very large glop of hash browns, eggs, chili and cheese that induces the most peaceful sleep known to man.)
When it comes to the Final Four, it is essential to separate the heart from the head. And when it's in St. Louis, near the Courtesy on South Kingshighway, the stomach comes into play.
So let's review Saturday's first national semifinal game.
Louisville (33-4) vs. Illinois (36-1), 3:07 p.m.
They have also had a challenging route, beating Georgia Tech and Washington before weathering an 18-for-27 3-point performance by West Virginia to defeat the Mountaineers in overtime.
And NBA-bound Francisco Garcia has been slick, averaging 21 points on nearly 50-percent shooting. In fact, the Cardinals are the only team left that has made more than half of its shots (51.4 percent) in the NCAAs.
However, Louisville opponents have taken care of the ball better than the Cards, and coach Rick Pitino's crew has only shot free throws at a 70-percent clip in the tournament.
Take away Garcia's marksmanship at the line, and the Cardinals are only hitting freebies at a 64-percent rate.
Illinois, meanwhile, has a crew that has the best assists-to-turnovers ratio (1.63) among the last four. Plus, it's hitting 76 percent of its free throws.
Taking care of the ball, rebounding and free throws are the most vital statistics during the Madness.
The Illini had that stirring comeback against Arizona, marking it as a team of destiny. When Dee Brown has been down, James Augustine has produced. When Augustine has disappeared, Deron Williams and Luther Head have picked up the slack. Williams goes into hiding? Brown picks up the slack.
Illinois 90, Louisville 85.
Michigan St. (26-6) vs. UNC (31-4), 5:47 p.m.
Michigan State owns a plus-5 margin on the glass, while Carolina is at plus-33. The Heels only out-boarded Wisconsin 33-29 in their last game, though, so maybe Roy Williams' crew can be limited in the post by a Big Ten Conference team.
What is certain is that North Carolina junior guard Raymond Felton gives his team an edge against Michigan State's combo of Drew Neitzel and Chris Hill at the point.
Neitzel has given out 12 assists and turned it over only five times in the Spartans' past three games, and he did sink his only 3-pointer against Kentucky. But he also logged only 14 minutes against Kentucky.
MSU coach Tom Izzo saw what we saw -- Neitzel looked as nervous as a freshman, which he is. Hill has canned only one of 16 3-point attempts in the NCAAs, averaging 3.7 points in his past three games. Hardly senior-like figures.
And Carolina junior forward Sean May has emerged as a likely tournament MVP. He averages 21.5 points and 11.8 rebounds, shooting 67.3 percent in the NCAAs. He has also made 80 percent of his free throws.
Michigan State has made 78 percent of its free throws in the tournament, and its nifty man-to-man defense, with collapsing-zone principles, will benefit Neitzel/Hill and center Paul Davis with sticky help, hounding Felton and May.
Plus, Maurice Ager, Shannon Brown, Kelvin Torbert and Alan Anderson are just as athletic as anything, or anyone, the Tar Heels can throw at the Spartans.
Michigan State 71, North Carolina 66.
National Championship
Illinois vs. MSU, Monday
In fact, Izzo will prove he's the best coach in the Final Four.
Michigan State 86, Illinois 80.
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