Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

New polls give Bush varying edge in Nevada

John Kerry is reportedly pulling advertising from several key battleground states where President Bush continues to enjoy a post-convention bounce, but Kerry isn't willing to concede the race for Nevada.

Both campaigns are launching ads in the state just as new polls show diverging pictures of what could happen here.

Two polls released this week show a neck-and-neck race in Nevada, with the difference between the two major candidates falling well within the margin of error.

But the latest poll, a CNN-USA Today-Gallup poll released Wednesday, gave Bush a 9-point lead, 52 percent to 43 percent.

Independent candidate Ralph Nader got 1 percent and 4 percent were undecided in the poll of 535 likely voters.

Bush-Cheney spokeswoman Tracey Schmitt said that the campaign expects a close race in the state but that Bush's message will ultimately win over voters.

"John Kerry's attempt to talk down a robust economy and mislead Nevadans on his own record is clearly not resonating with voters," she said.

Democrats, however, questioned the CNN poll, saying their internal numbers show a much closer race.

"If you just sort of look at the balance of all the polls that have come out in the last few days about Nevada, they all show one picture, and that poll shows another," Kerry campaign spokesman Sean Smith said.

The Kerry campaign has concerns that CNN's method of identifying "likely" voters screens out young people and people who have recently moved, Smith said.

Kevin Griffis, spokesman for America Coming Together in Nevada, also said the group's internal polls in Nevada give a one- or two-point difference between the candidates.

Two polls released by national groups also pegged the race at a two-point difference.

A poll released Wednesday by the American Research Group gave Bush 47 percent and Kerry 45 percent in Nevada.

Zogby International released a poll Tuesday giving Bush 49 percent and Kerry 47 percent in the state.

Both campaigns in Nevada say their candidate is riding momentum now.

"It's just that gut feeling you have when you're in a campaign," said state Republican Party executive director Chris Carr. "I have that gut feeling."

Carr pointed out that Democrats have regained the lead in the number of registered voters in the state, yet Bush hasn't suffered in the polls.

Democratic Party spokesman Jon Summers estimates that Democrats hold about a 4,500-voter advantage in the state now because of intensified efforts to register Democratic voters.

Republicans also are registering voters in droves and have signed up about 50,000 of the 57,000 voters they had targeted, Carr said.

"Bottom line is, before they had the advantage it was a dead-even state. Right now it's a dead-even state," Carr said.

Kerry campaign officials said they're happy with those dead-even polls at this stage.

"We're very pleased with where the race is right now in Nevada, a state where George Bush won last time," Smith said.

The fact that most polls show a statistical tie "shows our message of change, our message of stopping Yucca Mountain from happening and our message of more access to health care and lower health costs is resonating with Nevadans," he said.

Some national strategists have pegged Nevada, New Hampshire and West Virginia as Kerry's best chances of taking states won by Bush in 2000.

Because of shifts in population, Kerry would have to win all of the states won by Democratic presidential nominee Al Gore in 2000 and pick up another 10 electoral votes.

Gore lost to Bush by five electoral votes in 2000. Nevada will have five electoral votes in this election.

The Zogby analysis of its poll said Bush has done a better job of capturing Nevada's small number of undecided votes in recent weeks.

Independent voters in the state gave Bush his lead, Zogby pollsters speculate, with 44 percent of independents saying they are pleased with the direction of the country and 47 percent saying Bush deserves re-election.

Bush's overall approval rating in the state was 49 percent, compared with 48 percent for Kerry.

The differences in the polls might come from how the polling companies identify "likely" voters. Companies collect a sample of people that are supposed to reflect the voting population by race, sex, age and other factors.

But some Democrats argue that polling companies might not have adjusted yet to the state's newly registered voters. There are more Democrats because of recent registration efforts.

For example, young people who exclusively use cell phones often are left out because polling companies don't have access to their numbers, Griffis said.

And Democratic consultant Andres Ramirez, the state director of Voices for Working families, said he thinks some polling companies aren't including some of Nevada's newly registered voters, who don't have a history of voting in the state and therefore are screened out as "likely" voters.

"That's why it's polling, that's why they do it over and over to see if their results are consistent," Ramirez said. "When most of the groups are getting similar results, you're on the right track."

Both sides agree that the winner will be the candidate with the best grass-roots efforts to get out the vote.

"It's a sprint now to election day," Carr said. "I do think the momentum has swung our way, not only nationally, but here in Nevada.

The deadline to register for the general election is Oct. 12. After that, both parties will launch their efforts to convince people to go to the polls by calling them and even visiting them door-to-door.

"In the end, it becomes a ground game of who can best turn out their voters," Smith said. "I will take the field team that we have any day of the week."

Given the huge number of Democrats registered this election year, Griffis predicted it's a new ballgame when it comes to getting voters to the polls. Many of the newly registered voters are minorities, young people and people who aren't used to casting votes, he said.

"This electorate is going to be different from any other electorate in recent history," he predicted.

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