Friday, Sept. 3, 2004 | 5:42 a.m.
Jon Ralston hosts the news discussion program Face to Face on Las Vegas ONE and publishes the Ralston Report. He can be reached at (702) 870-7997 or at [email protected].
WEEKEND EDITION September 4 - 7, 2004
An oracle by any other name -- pundit, pontificator, blowhard, know-it-all -- is still an oracle.
And the curse of having Delphic powers is that once they are displayed, they cannot be holstered. To put them away is to concede they no longer exist. Or, to put it more simply: To not foretell is to chicken out.
So I do not "bawk" at my duty to continue the long tradition -- oh what a fiddler on the truth am I -- of predicting election outcomes on the eve of the balloting. I would rather be wrong (I've heard it can happen) than be labeled a coward.
Primaries are especially problematic even for the best prognosticators, as low turnouts often produce miraculous upsets, where grass roots beats greenbacks. Primary '04 features not one, but at least three state Senate contests that are nearly impossible to predict and a County Commission primary where the incumbent has the money, the history and the indictment.
Throw in some Assembly primaries and a conundrum of a state Supreme Court race and no one but a lunatic would even attempt to predict -- tradition or no tradition.
So crazed though I may be, I leap once again into the oracular fray, knowing that no soft landing of credit or pity awaits me come Wednesday morning.
State Senate District 1: If anyone in this Democratic primary votes for Sharon Shaffer, the wife of incumbent Ray Shaffer, he or she is either ignorant, gullible or a member of the Shaffer family. This stunt is even more grotesque than the comically ludicrous campaign of Mike Schaefer, who may be running out of homophonic candidates to challenge in this county.
Ex-Assemblyman John Lee has the best campaign organization and should surmount the disadvantage of having a different name. Lee, 38 percent; Schaefer, 25 percent; Shaffer, 20 percent; Chris Colasuono, 12 percent; Gary Rogers, 5 percent.
State Senate District 4: This crowded contest for state Sen. Joe Neal's seat features Democratic National Committeeman Steven Horsford, who thinks a state lottery is the answer to all our problems and is the Culinary Union's man, and Cedric Crear, who says he really isn't the Station Casinos candidate even though the company all but funded his campaign.
Regent Linda Howard, who channels Neal on gaming taxes, and affable longtime businessman Bert Mack also are in the contest as well as Board of Education member Terri Malone. I give Horsford the edge because of grass roots. Horsford, 32 percent; Crear, 30 percent; Howard, 19 percent; Malone, 12 percent; Mack, 7 percent.
State Senate District 5: It seems almost surreal to believe Ann O'Connell could lose a Republican primary. It seems like a combination of Lewis Carroll and O. Henry that the taxaphobic O'Connell could lose by being portrayed as a taxer and spender, although it's almost Danteesque that this is the circle of hell reserved for someone who signed onto the largest tax bill in history and then had to abstain on the final vote on the tax package.
Joe Heck -- in case you haven't heard, that's the name of her opponent -- has done very little except watch the Citizens on the Strip (I think that's the official name) define O'Connell. But he has walked the district and he has hired two excellent grass-roots operatives, Jim Ferrence and Billy Rogers. As much as my instincts say O'Connell by a hair, I think Heck's turnout machine wins. Heck, 52 percent; O'Connell, 48 percent.
State Senate District 6: Assemblyman Bob Beers has been seen as the winner of this contest against incumbent Ray Rawson for months. No one gives Rawson a chance because Beers is more dynamic and less tax-friendly.
But I think this one will be much closer than people think, mostly because of Rawson's base, especially within the LDS and conservative community, and because Beers didn't raise as much money and overreacted to a couple of the Rawson attacks -- or should I say those paid for by the Committee for Half-Truths in Politics (the official name, I believe).
Like many, I find it hard to believe Rawson could actually win. And while I can't bring myself to predict it will happen, it just might. Beers, 53 percent; Rawson, 47 percent.
County Commission B: Only in a primary could an indicted incumbent have a chance. And only in a district where she is so well-known and so well-liked could it happen. But I think the weight of all the media coverage and her opponents not so subtly raising the issue will do in Mary Kincaid-Chauncey.
Tom Collins will survive the last-minute pummeling by his colleague, Vonne Chowning. Collins, 35 percent; Kincaid-Chauncey, 31 percent; Chowning, 19 percent; John Bonaventura, 10 percent; John Stephens, 5 percent.
Supreme Court A: This is the easier one. Washoe Judge Jim Hardesty is the class -- and most monied -- of this field. Hardesty, 48 percent; Cynthia Steel, 30 percent; Don Ashworth, 16 percent; Kevin Mirsh, 6 percent.
Supreme Court E: This one is much more difficult to read. Entertainment attorney John Mason's attempt to buy the primary appears to have succeeded but the question is who will finish second. Judge Ron Parraguirre is the anointed favorite but Justice of the Peace Doug Smith has run a solid campaign.
My guess is the Parraguirre family name carries some weight outside Clark County and nudges him over the top. Mason, 39 percent; Parraguirre, 30 percent; Smith, 25 percent; Lori Lipman Brown, 6 percent.
Assembly: These are even more of a crapshoot, but some of the winners will be Marilyn Kirkpatrick, Peggy Pierce, Francis Allen, Mo Denis, Jon Petrick, Scott Sibley and, in an upset, Doug Bache.
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