Wednesday, Sept. 1, 2004 | 10 a.m.
Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Wednesday. Reach him at (702) 259-4041 or [email protected].
We surveyed 14 major Las Vegas sports books and analyzed the house edge in each of their Super Bowl future books.
The larger the house edge, the worse it is for the bettor.
Generally, gamblers are better off making their Super Bowl wagers at sports books with a smaller house edge.
This list ranks the 14 sports books in order of best to worst from the bettor's perspective:
Sports book...Edge (pct.)
Venetian...25
Las Vegas Hilton...30
Coast Casinos...32
Golden Nugget...35
Palms...41
Imperial Palace...42
Caesars...43
Mandalay Bay...45
Mirage...51
Circus Circus...52
Station Casinos...52
Stardust...57
Leroy's...60
Harrah's...71
FUTURE BOOK: The listing of odds on some upcoming event such as the championship in a particular sport.
JUICE: A slang term for vigorish, the bookmaker's commission.
PLAY: A slang term meaning to bet.
PRICE: Another word for odds.
SHOP: As a noun, an informal term for a sports book. As a verb, to look around for the best odds before placing your wager.
David Sklansky is the author of, among other books:
Don Schlesinger is online at advantageplayer.com.
Stanford Wong is online at sharpsportsbetting.com.
Gamblers with an opinion on which team will win the Super Bowl this season -- and some cash to back it up -- will get the most bang for their buck at the Venetian, according to an analysis of National Football League future books.
The Las Vegas Hilton, Coast Casinos and the Golden Nugget also offer good value in Super Bowl futures, the study revealed.
The analysis, conducted by the Sun, examined the theoretical hold percentage -- or "house edge" -- in the Super Bowl futures on the board at 14 major Las Vegas sports books.
House edge expresses, as a percentage, the amount of money a sports book is expected to keep after paying out winning wagers.
The lower the house edge, the more favorable it is for bettors. The higher the house edge, the worse it is for bettors.
In 2004 Super Bowl futures, the Venetian checked in with a house edge of 25 percent, followed by the Hilton (30 percent), Coasts (32 percent) and the Golden Nugget (35 percent).
The industry standard is generally considered to be in the range of 40 or 50 percent; anything lower is considered quite competitive.
The worst bets for Super Bowl bettors in Las Vegas can be found at Leroy's (house edge of 60 percent) and Harrah's (71 percent). A spokesman for Leroy's said he could not comment, and Harrah's officials did not respond to a request for comment.
"The smaller joints -- in terms of their sports action and not necessarily the size of the hotel or casino -- need to build in more juice," while the larger establishments with more volume can afford less vigorish, said gambling authority Don Schlesinger. "It's why you pay more for a container of milk at your local corner convenience store than you do at a large supermarket.
"But the lesson is clear -- shop before you play."
House edge is a handy tool because it provides a big-picture look at how competitive a sports book's prices are, from the top of the board to the bottom. For instance, a book might have very low odds on a particular team but make up for it by raising the prices on other teams.
A high house edge, however, indicates that a sports book is offering poor odds across the board.
Officials with the Venetian, ranked No. 1 in the survey, did not respond to a request for comment.
But a couple of sports book bosses who fell just short of No. 1 expressed disappointment that they weren't able to snag top honors.
"I tip my hat to (the Venetian) -- but tell me what I've got to do to beat them," said Nick Bogdanovich, sports book manager at the Golden Nugget.
The Golden Nugget's Super Bowl odds on the AFC favorite New England Patriots (7-1) and the NFC favorite Philadelphia Eagles (7-1) are among the best in town -- and Bogdanovich pointed out that his shop will take a large bet without batting an eye.
"You'll find that we pride ourselves on being as liberal as anyone around," Bogdanovich said. "We've got the highest limits, best parlay cards, you name it."
Jay Kornegay, sports book director at the Las Vegas Hilton, said he would like to improve on his runner-up showing in the survey.
"I'm kind of shocked we're not No. 1," Kornegay said. "We've always been fair and aggressive at the same time, as well as consistent from sport to sport. ... So we're No. 2 in Super Bowl theoretical hold, but we're still No. 1 in customer service.
"No. 2 is not bad, but it leaves room for improvement, and that's what we're going to do."
The Hilton's odds on the Oakland Raiders (40-1), Carolina Panthers (22-1) and Denver Broncos (18-1) are among the best in town.
Like Bogdanovich at the Golden Nugget, Kornegay said he is willing to take big action from high-rolling sports bettors.
"I hate to use the word 'limits,' because they're really guidelines," Kornegay said. "If someone asks for more (higher betting limits), we're always willing to take a look at it."
Stanford Wong, the author of "Sharp Sports Betting" (Pi Yee Press), advises gamblers to wait until each team has played a couple of games before wagering on Super Bowl futures.
"It's hard to find a good bet when betting on a team to win the Super Bowl if you bet before the season starts," Wong said. "The house edge is just too high. Even 25 percent is just too high to be worth a look.
"If you want to bet on a team to win the Super Bowl, wait until after each team has played at least two games. If there is a low-rated team that surprises by looking strong, such as St. Louis a few years ago, then you might be able to find a good bet on that team to win the Super Bowl."
By then, of course, the odds on that team will be dropping quickly so it's crucial to snap them up while value still exists, Wong said.
Las Vegas author and professional gambler David Sklansky said a house edge of 25 percent in a future book should be the upper limit among local casinos, rather than the best in the city.
"Considering they get to keep the money all season, and considering some people probably forget to cash in their (winning) tickets, there's no reason anything higher than 25 percent is necessary," Sklansky said.
Sklansky was also sharply critical of sports books with high house edges, and the paltry odds those shops offer.
"Most sports books do something that's insanely stupid: They worry about outcomes of individual events showing a profit, rather than simply optimizing their overall profits," Sklansky said. "The sports books are so incredibly scared about taking a loss on an individual event that they miss out on an opportunity to make bigger profits.
"What's a bigger profit: 25 percent of $5 million, or 71 percent of $400,000?"
For example, odds on the Los Angeles Lakers to win the NBA championship this past season were so low that they discouraged action from gamblers, Sklansky said. An aggressive bookmaker who offered slightly more attractive odds on the Lakers could have "cleaned up" when L.A. lost in the NBA Finals, Sklansky said.
"Some of these numbers (odds) are an insult even to tourists," Sklansky said. "These places are alienating their customer base by offering such terrible lines."
A sampling of odds among the leading contenders to win Super Bowl XXXIX from a selection of Las Vegas sports books:
Note: Information for this chart and the accompanying story was gathered over the past couple of days. Odds can change frequently. Double-check before wagering.
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