Kerry has edge in newspaper endorsements

Benjamin Grove

Friday, Oct. 29, 2004 | 7:19 a.m.

WEEKEND EDITION

October 30 - 31, 2004

WASHINGTON -- John Kerry maintains an edge over President Bush in newspaper endorsements heading into the Sunday before Election Day, when a final batch of editorials is expected.

For a Democrat, that flies in the face of history.

Since 1940, a majority of newspapers have backed every Republican presidential candidate except two, Lyndon Johnson in 1964 and Bill Clinton in 1992, according to trade publication Editor & Publisher.

Four years ago the majority of newspapers backed Bush over Democrat Al Gore, and 72 of the nation's largest newspapers were evenly divided over the two candidates, Editor & Publisher said.

Now those same 72 papers support Kerry by roughly a 3-2 margin, the publication said.

As of Friday, Kerry had the support of 172 newspapers to Bush's 137. The Kerry newspapers have a circulation of 18.7 million readers, compared to 12 million who read the papers that back Bush, Editor & Publisher said.

Kerry's tally includes 40 newspapers that backed Bush in 2000, compared to just six that switched from Gore in 2000 to Bush this year.

This year 11 newspapers chose not to endorse either candidate, notably the Cleveland Plain Dealer, the Detroit News, and the New Orleans Times-Picayune.

It's difficult to generalize about why Kerry has picked up more endorsements, but some editorial page writers who backed Bush in 2000 spent four years taking critical looks at his policies.

"Bush's term in office has been marked by two major failures," wrote the Portland Oregonian, which switched from Bush in 2000 to Kerry. "One is his conduct of the war in Iraq. The other is his stewardship of the nation's fiscal health."

"The question that Americans need to ask themselves, going into the voting booth a week from Tuesday is: Do you like the direction our nation is heading?" wrote the Chicago Sun-Times, which backed Bush in 2000. "If the answer is no, then your vote should be for Sen. John Kerry."

But do newspaper endorsements sway voters?

Research answering that question "is scarcer than a liberal at a Wall Street Journal editorial board meeting," writer Tim Porter said in American Journalism Review this month.

But a Pew Center for the People and the Press study released in January found that editorials persuade only about 7 percent of voters. And a newspaper's support for a candidate is just as likely to turn an equal percentage of voters away from that candidate, the study said.

Editorials tend to be more influential in local races that have not generated voter interest, and have less impact on high-profile presidential races, experts said.

"Editorial writers are under no illusion that their endorsements in presidential races have a big influence" on voters, said Greg Mitchell, Editor & Publisher editor.

People simply don't pay much attention to editorials in general, said Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. Most who do already are well-educated on the candidates and already support one or the other, he said.

"Newspaper editorial endorsements are a dinosaur in modern-day politics," Sabato said.

Editorial endorsements in presidential races are mostly used by candidates for campaign advertising, and hardly used by voters at all, said Kathleen Hall Jamieson, director of the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania.

"Most people don't know who their newspaper endorsed," Jamieson said.

Still, editorials are important for outlining an issue and stirring public debate, said Scott Keeter, director of survey research for Pew.

"Editorials bring an argument to bear, in a very clear way, why someone should be supported," he said.

And endorsement editorials this year are still important, not so much for the endorsement itself but for bringing new information to readers and for goading them to consider new arguments, said Tom Rosenstiel, director of the Project for Excellence in Journalism.

"In a lot of ways, a well-reasoned endorsement has a lot of value, maybe more value than it used to," Rosenstiel said.

Editorial page editors note that while most readers say editorials don't sway their vote, they still react passionately to editorials, which means they read them -- and care.

The Denver Post received hundreds of angry letters after it endorsed Bush on Sunday. "I'm befuddled!" one Post reader wrote. "You want us to vote for a man who, in your words, 'squandered global good will,' 'labored erratically' and is 'mishandling all things Iraq'? Sorry, it's not the kind of behavior I plan to reward."

So many subscriptions were cancelled because of the Chicago Tribune's endorsement of Bush that the paper's editor sent out letters trying to win them back.

And the editor of The Lone Star Iconoclast in Crawford, Texas, home to Bush's ranch, reported receiving numerous threats after his newspaper endorsed Kerry. That endorsement was itself a national story.

The questions of whether editorials matter and whether they sway voters are separate, said Lynnell Burkett, editorial page editor of the San Antonio Express-News, and president of the National Conference of Editorial Writers.

"I don't think editorial endorsements change many minds, but they do stimulate thinking and discussion," Burkett said.

For candidates themselves, newspaper endorsements are sought mostly for attack ads and bragging rights over a rival, experts said.

This year the candidates especially sought endorsements in swing states, where Bush and Kerry fought for the slightest edge.

In Nevada, the Las Vegas Sun, Reno Gazette-Journal and the Nevada Appeal in Carson City endorsed Kerry. But the state's largest newspaper, the Las Vegas Review-Journal, endorsed Bush.

"It's not make or break for a campaign," said Chris Carr, executive director of the Nevada Republican Party. But he added, "It's nice to wake up on Sunday morning and see that you were endorsed."

Newspaper endorsements allow candidates to claim some national momentum, said Sean Smith, Kerry spokesman in Nevada. The editorials typically offer voters a calm voice amid the chaos, he said.

"There is so much noise in a campaign from both camps," Smith said. "To see a respected voice in the community weighing in -- that does matter."

In battleground Florida, Kerry picked up major paper endorsements from the St. Petersburg Times; Miami Herald; Orlando Sentinel; and Fort Lauderdale Sun-Sentinel, with a combined circulation of more than 1.2 million. The Orlando Sentinel switched; it backed Bush in 2000. The Tampa Tribune, which supported Bush in 2000, has chosen not to endorse a candidate.

But in swing state Colorado, Bush has the backing of both Denver papers, the Post and the Rocky Mountain News.

Two of the nation's largest newspapers, USA Today and the Wall Street Journal, do not make endorsements.