Columnist Jon Ralston: A partly cloudy crystal ball

Friday, Oct. 29, 2004 | 5:38 a.m.

Jon Ralston hosts the news discussion program Face to Face on Las Vegas ONE and publishes the Ralston Report. He can be reached at (702) 870-7997 or at ralston@vegas.com.

WEEKEND EDITION

October 30 - 31, 2004

It's difficult and masochistic enough producing public election predictions, but this year's forecast may be wrong even as I am making it.

By the time you read this, more than 300,000 voters in Clark County will have voted early or absentee. That could conceivably amount to 60 percent or more of the total turnout in Southern Nevada, meaning some races could already be over. No wonder my crystal ball is cloudy.

Some of the lower-ticket races could be decided on factors endemic to the districts. But the answer to this question surely will have the greatest impact on Campaign '04 in Nevada, from the presidential race to Assembly contests:

Can the Democratic Party's ground game, which has produced impressive early voting numbers, grind out enough votes to save candidates losing in the polls?

This begins with John Kerry, who would be the first Democratic nominee in 40 years to win the state without any third-party help (Bill Clinton won Nevada in 1992 and 1996, only because of Ross Perot), and could affect David Goldwater's bid to become a Clark County commissioner and a few critical Assembly races.

Never have the Democrats had such a sophisticated and relentless operation. It is fueled by Bushhate at the grass roots, powered by that minimum wage ballot initiative and those outside groups who set up shop here and energized by skilled operatives put in place to destroy presumed senatorial contender Jim Gibbons. Remarkably, they stayed in place despite the cakewalk that materialized for Sen. Harry Reid.

But will it be enough, and will independents, who make up 15 percent of the electorate, break the Democratic way?

With little hope of reaching the prescience plateau of 2002, when I forecast the Democratic Party disaster, called nearly every race correctly and was inducted (by myself) into the Oracular Hall of Fame, here is my best guess/polling analysis/instinct at work: