Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

Races a jumble for season’s final week

It's not the BCS, but the various playoff scenarios going into the final week of football season can be confusing, even though the rules are pretty clear-cut.

Three of the four southern divisions could go into a three-way tie for various seeds, including distinct possibilities for the Northeast and Southwest titles to be decided by serious math.

Foothill's win against Silverado last week leaves the Falcons as the only team that has won its division title. With Valley's upset of Eldorado Friday night, the Vikings control their own destiny going into this week's batch of Thursday night games, held a day early in observance of Friday's Nevada Day holiday.

Math around

Winning won't come easy. An experienced Las Vegas High team is looking for redemption after losing to Eldorado in the second week of league play, and can easily find it with a win.

If Vegas does upset Valley and Eldorado beats 2-7 Chaparral, the three teams will lock into a three-way tie. Each team will be 1-1 against others, voiding the first Nevada Interscholastic Activities Association tiebreaker. The second NIAA tiebreaker is margin of victory. Each team is awarded positive or negative points for the margin of victory or loss against the other opponents in the three-way tie, up to 13 points. Eldorado beat Vegas by seven, then lost to Valley by three, so they currently hold the edge at four. Valley's second at three, and Las Vegas is at minus-seven.

The real intrigue is the margin of victory. The Wildcats need to beat Valley by five to bump up to second. If Vegas wins by 12 or more points, they will claim their second straight Northeast title. A win by 11 or less puts Eldorado in charge, contingent on their beating Chaparral.

"We talked about it Saturday morning, at least we have an opportunity to have control over our own destiny," Wildcats coach Chris Faircloth said.

Desert Pines is alone at the bottom of that heap, currently holding the tiebreaker with Chaparral for fourth but still needing a win over 1-8 Rancho to secure the first-round berth against Foothill. If Chaparral defeats Eldorado and Desert Pines is upset, the Cowboys will be going to the playoffs.

Silverado closes out the year at Green Valley, and a Gators win puts them, at minimum, in a three-way tie for second with Silverado and Coronado. Coronado faces 2-7 Liberty to close the year, but will be bumped to fourth in any scenario in which Green Valley wins.

Currently, the marginal points advantage is with Silverado, which beat Coronado by eight. Green Valley is second at minus-three from a 13-10 loss to Coronado, and the Cougars trail the pack at minus-five. That loss also gives Coronado the edge in a two-way tie, should the Gators lose and Cougars win.

It would take a six-point Gators win against Silverado to give them the edge for second place in the Southeast.

Back to Basic. A Wolves upset against Foothill, coupled with Green Valley and Coronado losses, would also put those three teams in a three-way tie for third. In that scenario, Coronado takes third with a plus-16 and Green Valley would be fourth with a plus-10.

Contingent on Bonanza beating 1-7 Durango, the Bengals, Gaels, and Mountain Lions would be in a three-way tie for first in the Southwest. Bonanza enters at a strong disadvantage, having lost to Bishop Gorman by 36 earlier this year. They beat Sierra Vista, so they're locked at a minus-12 in the tiebreaker scenario, and are relegated to third in the division.

If Sierra Vista wins by seven or more points, it will move from third to first in the Southwest Division. A one-to-six point victory locks them at second, with Bishop Gorman holding onto the top seed.

Durango still has a glimmer of hope for the fourth seed, but the spot appears to be Western's to lose. The Warriors face winless Clark, while Durango must beat Bonanza to stay alive. They'd still have to count on Clark upsetting Western to have a shot at the fourth seed.

Cheyenne, which hasn't lost a game but was forced to forfeit its first match of the season due to an altercation in last year's playoffs, travels to Summerlin to take on No. 2 Palo Verde. The winner gets the top seed and probably a home date with Western -- which both teams have already defeated this year -- and the loser will have to deal with either Bonanza or Sierra Vista.

Palo Verde beat Cimarron 27-16 last weekend, but quarterback Jarrell Harrison suffered a "stinger" in the second half and didn't play any more offense. Coach Darwin Rost said that Harrison will be back Thursday.

Shadow Ridge has the third seed locked up, holding the two-way tiebreakers against both Mojave and Cimarron-Memorial. Those two teams will be playing for the fourth spot on Thursday, with Cimarron's 1-3 league record being the surprise of the second half of this season. Mojave's first conference win in three years, defeating Centennial two weeks ago, puts it in a position of needing just one more win to secure a playoff berth.

Moapa Valley can clinch the 3A South title with a win against rival Virgin Valley this week. Boulder City can earn a playoff berth with a victory at Pahrump Valley, as well.

If Virgin Valley and Boulder City win, then Moapa, Virgin Valley and Boulder City would be in a three-way tie for first place. Boulder City, set at a minus-10 differential, would be out of the playoffs. Virgin Valley would then need to win by eight or more points to clinch the 3A South title, otherwise they'll be stuck in second.

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