Face Off: Popularity of candidates masks give hint to election victor

Kirk Baird

Monday, Oct. 25, 2004 | 8:18 a.m.

A John Kerry mask or a George W. Bush mask? Think carefully: Your choice may decide the next president of the United States.

With the presidential election two weeks away, the polls have Democratic hopeful Kerry in a virtual toss-up with Republican incumbent Bush. Many political pundits have said that the race is simply too close to call.

They obviously haven't consulted a Halloween costume store.

According to many costume makers and stores, there is a nearly infallible method of predicting the presidential race - the popularity of candidate masks.

Through these sales, Bruce Baum, director of sales at Cesar Inc., a worldwide mask and costume manufacturer, said he has correctly predicted the outcome of the last four presidential elections.

The Cesar streak dates back to shortly after the company formed, before the 1988 Halloween season, when George H.W. Bush masks sold more than Michael Dukakis masks. Four Halloweens later, though, Bill Clinton masks were more popular than Bush's. Clinton masks also outsold Bob Dole masks in 1996.

Oddly enough, during the 2000 election-year Halloween there was a twist.

"I sold more ... Al Gore masks (but) made more money off George Bush," Baum said from his New York office. "It's just like the popular vote and Electoral College." In 2000 many Gore masks were sold to retailers at a lower price than Bush masks in highly populated pro-Gore regions. Thus, more Gore masks were sold, but Bush masks turned a higher profit.

This year, however, Baum said his company's mask sales mirror the polls, in that it's a tight race.

"It's too close to call now," he said. "I'm up on Bush sales by a very slim margin."

But it may not even be that close, at least, according to extremehalloween.com. Sales of presidential masks at the family-owned costume business near Fort Lauderdale, Fla., have Bush ahead by 10 percent over Kerry, 55-45 percent. Of course, that's in a state famous for voting problems.

Still, based on mask sales, extremehalloween.com has correctly predicted the election results since Reagan took office in 1980, said company Vice President Shari Maxwell.

Perhaps because of what happened in her state during the 2000 election - hanging chads, anyone? -- Maxwell takes this polling method seriously. Just to make sure the results are fair, she discounted sales of Bush masks throughout the year, only keeping track from when the Kerry mask was made available four months ago.

"If not, we would have sold many more Bush masks than Kerry masks because we've had it four more years," she said. "I've been really careful, trying to keep it as scientific as possible."

There's even more good news for Bush supporters, courtesy of a nationwide online poll from thrift-store chain Savers.

When asked what president they would rather be for Halloween, 1,310 men and women responded:

Bush received 364 votes for 27.8 percent of the vote, while Kerry picked up 294 votes for 22.4 percent. Perhaps equally as troubling to Kerry supporters, former Presidents Reagan and Clinton masks are also more popular than the senator from Massachusetts by those who responded to the poll. A total of 331 (25.2 percent) chose Reagan, and 321 (24.5 percent) opted for Clinton.

In a show of diplomacy, Gina Cohen, spokeswoman for Savers, said it's difficult to divine what the poll means, other than more Halloweeners would rather dress up as President Bush than Sen. Kerry this year.

"Whether it's to support (Bush) or to make fun of him, I couldn't say," she said from Savers corporate headquarters in Bellevue, Wash.

Locally, however, the nearly equal popularity of both presidential masks indicates the race remains close in Las Vegas.

Ann Siegel, president of the Halloween Experience stores at 5800 S. Valley View Blvd. and outside of the Galleria at Sunset, as well as halloweenmart.com, said sales of masks between the two candidates is running almost even.

"I have two masks of George Bush left and three of John Kerry," she said. "Both masks are very popular."

The Spirit Halloween Superstore at Jones and U.S. 95 also has the mask race a virtual tie, with Kerry enjoying a slight lead by a mask or two. The store also carries Clinton and Richard Nixon masks. But it's the "Governator" mask of Arnold Schwarzenegger and the Michael Jackson mask, named "Wacko Jacko," that are most popular.

"The last week of Halloween is normally when it gets crazy," said Ed Jones, assistant manager of the Spirit Halloween Superstore. "They'll take everything. They don't care what it is at that point."

Perhaps representing voter apathy is the Spencer Gifts in Meadows mall where, two weeks before Halloween, store-goers have shown their disapproval for either candidate.

"A lot of people try them on, laugh and then walk away," Danielle Gensler, assistant manager, said. "It's not like they sit on the shelf collecting dust. People do pay attention to them."

They're just not buying them -- at least, yet.

"Maybe later on in the season," Gensler said. "It's just too early."

Still, she's quick to point out, the store has sold more anti-Bush T-shirts, featuring a variation of the slang term for bovine droppings, than anti-Kerry T-shirts, with the Democrat's face painted green and placed on top of Herman Munster's body.

Although, from what she's observed by the interest in the Bush mask, Gensler said her store's shoppers seem evenly split between the president's backers and his detractors.

"Half of the people come in supporting the president, saying, 'Look at me, I'm the president,' " she said. "The other half say, 'Look at this (nitwit).' " Kerry this year.