Nevadans give Bush edge on terrorism, but Kerry gets nod on health care, environment

Friday, Oct. 22, 2004 | 8:20 a.m.

WEEKEND EDITION

October 23 - 24, 2004

By wide margins, Nevadans who are very likely to vote believe Republican President Bush would do a better job than Democratic challenger John Kerry in protecting the United States from terrorism and resolving the war in Iraq.

But those who participated in a new statewide poll gave Kerry the nod by a wide margin in improving the health care system and protecting the environment. They also gave the Massachusetts senator the edge in improving public education and in creating jobs and improving the economy.

The Las Vegas Sun/Channel 8 Eyewitness News/KNPR Nevada Public Radio poll was conducted by Washington-based polling firm Belden Russonello & Stewart and has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

The 600 very likely voters polled from Oct. 16 through Oct. 19 were asked by the pollsters: "Regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please tell me if you think George W. Bush or John Kerry would better handle each of the following issues:"

* Protecting the United States from terrorism. Bush was favored by 58 percent to 34 percent for Kerry. Bush's support on this topic cut across gender, age and locale and also was strong among independents (62-31), moderates (51-39) and undecided voters (66-15).

"It's the number one issue across the country," Kate Stewart, a partner in the polling firm, said. "We're still living in a post-9/11 world. The first thing people want to do is to protect their families."

* Resolving the war in Iraq. Bush held a 51-41 edge, with stronger support from men (55-38) than women (47-44), and more backing from individuals aged 40 to 59 (55-38) and 60 and older (52-40) than from individuals aged 18 to 39 (46-46). Bush also held the advantage among independents (52-39) and undecided voters (42-32), but Kerry had the upper hand among moderates (49-41).

"Foreign policy is an issue that typically plays to the Republican Party," UNLV political science professor David Damore said. "The Bush campaign has put all their eggs in the terrorism basket and they have presented the war in Iraq as a war on terrorism."

* Creating jobs and improving the economy in this country. Kerry was favored 48-45 over Bush, which was within the poll's margin of error. Kerry's strength was among women (53-41), voters aged 18 to 39 (58-35), independents (49-43), moderates (59-32), undecided voters (47-19), Clark County residents (52-41) and Washoe County residents (50-43).

Bush fared better among men (49-44), individuals aged 40 to 59 (51-43) and rural county residents (60-32).

"I don't think Bush has a clear statement on the economy and jobs," UNR political science professor Eric Herzik said.

* Improving the health care system. Kerry enjoyed a 52-41 advantage over Bush. Kerry was favored by a majority of both men and women and independent voters on this issue and ran strongest among individuals aged 18 to 39 (64-31), moderates (65-26), undecided voters (60-11), Clark County residents (55-37) and Washoe residents (54-39). Bush's edge came from rural residents (56-36).

"That's one of the areas where the Democrats have done a good job beating up on Bush," Damore said. "Quite frankly, this is something the Bush administration has ignored."

* Protecting the environment. Kerry was favored by a margin of 60 percent to 31 percent, his strongest issue among those covered in the poll. His advantage cut across gender, age and locale and also was strong among independents (62-25), moderates (73-18) and undecided voters (55-15).

* Improving public education. Kerry led 49-42, doing slightly better among women (50-41) than men (47-43). He also got the nod among individuals aged 18 to 39 (60-31), individuals aged 60 and older (47-44), independents (49-41), moderates (60-29), undecided voters (49-19), Clark County residents (52-38) and Washoe residents (47-42).

Bush was favored among individuals aged 40 to 59 (48-42) and rural residents (56-37).

"For Senator Kerry his strengths are in his plans for health care, education and jobs," Stewart said. "These are all big weaknesses for this president. When domestic issues are debated Kerry's numbers go up. When the focus is on terrorism Bush's numbers go up."

Kerry campaign spokesman Sean Smith said he wasn't surprised by his candidate's strong showing on domestic issues.

"Bush's four years have proven to be a disaster for these issues," Smith said. "He is the first president in 72 years to have a net job loss on his watch. Health care costs are exploding. Seniors have been robbed blind because the cost of prescription drugs is going through the roof. And Bush's No Child Left Behind act has been a colossal failure."

But Bush campaign spokeswoman Tracey Schmitt said the president is clearly stronger than Kerry on protecting the United States from terrorism and resolving the war in Iraq.

"John Kerry, in terms of national security, has yet to articulate a clear vision for Iraq," Schmitt said. "President Bush has shown decisive leadership on the war in Iraq, and America understands that he is committed to protecting us from terrorism as opposed to a candidate who sees the war against terrorism as a law enforcement action."

In the poll the same individuals were asked: "For you personally, how high a priority do you want the next president of the United States to give each of the following issues -- an extremely high priority, a high, middle, low, or very low priority?"

With individuals able to assign more than one issue as an extremely high priority, protecting the United States from terrorism came out on top, with 57 percent rating that an extremely high priority.

That was followed by resolving the war in Iraq (50 percent), improving the health care system (39 percent), creating jobs and improving the economy (37 percent), improving public education (32 percent) and protecting the environment (22 percent).

These numbers suggest that the issues where Bush runs strongest in this state -- protecting the country from terrorism and resolving the war in Iraq -- are considered higher priorities by Nevadans than the domestic issues that favor Kerry.

Particularly telling is that the overall order of preference Nevadans give for these issues is the same as the order of preference voiced by undecided and independent voters. Among undecided voters, 67 percent rated protecting the country from terrorism as an extremely high priority. Among independent voters, it was 53 percent.

Women and men placed nearly the same order of priority on the six issues -- women rated improving the health care system third and creating jobs and improving the economy fourth, while men had those two issues tied for third.

A higher percentage of women than men placed an extremely high priority on all six issues.

Protecting the United States from terrorism was rated an extremely high priority by 61 percent of the women and 53 percent of the men. Resolving the war in Iraq was given the highest priority by 53 percent of the women and 47 percent of the men, and improving the health care system was rated as an extremely high priority by 46 percent of the women and 33 percent of the men.

The most glaring difference, though, was in the way self-described Republicans and Democrats ranked the issues.

Among Republicans, 69 percent rated protecting the United States from terrorism as an extremely high priority for the next president, followed by resolving the war in Iraq (45 percent), improving public education (28 percent), creating jobs and improving the economy (26 percent), improving the health care system (24 percent) and protecting the environment (10 percent). Bush supporters expressed the same priorities.

"When terrorism gets 69 percent and no other issues gets even 50 percent, that means Republicans have a single issue that they think defines what the election is all about," Herzik said. "Democrats are less clear on their priorities."

Among Democrats, 57 percent rated resolving the war in Iraq as an extremely high priority, followed by improving the health care system (56 percent), creating jobs and improving the economy (51 percent), protecting the United States from terrorism (49 percent), improving public education (38 percent) and protecting the environment (34 percent). Kerry supporters rated health care as the top priority, slightly ahead of Iraq, but otherwise had the same priorities as Democrats in general.

"What we see is a difference in how Bush supporters and Kerry supporters prioritize the issues," Stewart said. "Bush supporters are putting much more emphasis on terrorism. Bush and Kerry supporters are very divided on these issues."

Voters aged 40 and older placed the same priority on the issues as Nevadans did overall. But individuals aged 18 to 39 rated improving public education third and improving the health care system fifth among their priorities, the reverse of the older voters.

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