Campaign assault to intensify in battleground states

Benjamin Grove

Friday, Oct. 22, 2004 | 9:41 a.m.

WASHINGTON -- Voters in battleground states are besieged by campaign propaganda and by volunteers mobilized in an unprecedented get-out-the-vote drive, four leading election observers said.

The bombardment will intensify, they said.

"Voters are going to get so much contact they are going to get sick of it," said Neil Newhouse, a top Republican pollster and co-founder of Public Opinion Strategies.

Nevada is a battleground state and home to a number of groups mobilizing voter drives, especially for the three days before Election Day.

Newhouse was part of a four-member panel Wednesday in Washington that had a wide-ranging discussion about the final days of the presidential campaign.

Newhouse said undecided voters still have doubts about John Kerry.

But Democratic National Committee consultant Howard Wolfson said undecided voters historically "break" to the challenger.

"We think it is very difficult to defy the laws of gravity in that regard," Wolfson said.

"Persuadable" voters are now very few, said Frank Donatelli, GOP strategist and former political director for Ronald Reagan.

But Democratic pollster Peter Hart said as many as 12 percent of voters may be persuadable. They tend to be less religious, more moderate, more minority and more concerned about the economy and health care than the general voting population, Hart said.

Hart called this the best election since Kennedy-Nixon because the electorate is so energized and passionate, and because more voters think the election will matter to them.

Newhouse and Hart said race wild cards include voter turnout, which is difficult for pollsters to predict. Pollsters sometimes miss young, highly mobile voters, for example. Up to 4 percent of voters who use cell phones exclusively are difficult to reach, said Hart, who conducts NBC/Wall Street Journal polls.

The two pollsters also agreed that observers will be reluctant to rely on exit polls this year. In general, exit polls are best used to understand voter motivations -- not to predict election results, they said.

In the remaining days, Bush and Kerry will continue delivering specially targeted messages depending on the city where they appear, the panelists said.

Bush will further solidify that he is the best man to lead a global war on terror, a message that will resonate well beyond his base of conservative voters, Donatelli said. Painting Kerry as a liberal still "packs some punch," he added.

Kerry likely will focus on both foreign policy and domestic issues, as Bush focuses on foreign policy to his detriment, Wolfson predicted.

The panelists agreed that a small gaffe, or an "October surprise" would be enough to tip the scale. But Wolfson predicted that a "tipping point" was unlikely. He predicted the battleground states were likely to be just as close on Election Day.

The panelists were reluctant to predict that election winner would be unknown after Nov. 3.

"I think it's going to be settled on Election night," Newhouse said. "But don't hold your breath."