Bush, Kerry in statistical dead heat among likely Nevada voters, Sun poll says

Friday, Oct. 22, 2004 | 8:11 a.m.

WEEKEND EDITION

October 23 - 24, 2004

A new statewide poll taken for the Las Vegas Sun/Channel 8 Eyewitness News/KNPR Nevada Public Radio shows Republican President Bush leading Democratic challenger John Kerry 45 percent to 41 percent among very likely voters in Nevada.

That's a statistical dead heat because it is within the margin of error of 4 percentage points. It also represents a slight narrowing of Bush's lead in Nevada when compared with a similar statewide poll taken last month that showed him ahead 47-42.

The latest Sun/Channel 8/KNPR poll of 600 very likely voters was conducted from Oct. 16 through Oct. 19 by Washington-based polling firm Belden Russonello & Stewart. The poll was taken after the third and final presidential debate.

In addition to the 45 percent for Bush and 41 percent for Kerry, independent presidential candidate Ralph Nader and Libertarian Party candidate Mike Badnarik each received 1 percent, and 9 percent were undecided.

When the poll factored in undecided individuals who were leaning toward Bush or Kerry, the result showed Bush holding a 47-43 edge over Kerry, with Nader and Badnarik both still receiving 1 percent. That's virtually identical to the 48-44 lead Bush had last month when leaning undecided voters were considered.

"This is still a statistical dead heat," Kate Stewart, a partner in the polling firm, said. "The race is considerably tight and Nevada is still a battleground state. You can't call this race right now because it is within the margin of error."

UNR political science professor Eric Herzik agreed that Nevada remains a battleground state, based on the poll.

"The poll shows that the state is leaning Bush and as you get closer to the election that becomes more significant because Kerry has less time to convince people to turn away from Bush," Herzik said. "The numbers are good news for Bush but not a slam dunk because he's not at 50 percent."

Bush campaign spokeswoman Tracey Schmitt said she was not surprised by the poll results because the president's campaign believes the race is still close and that Nevada is still a battleground state.

"We've always anticipated that this would be a close race," Schmitt said. "We are confident that at the end of the day a state with a 3.9 percent unemployment rate will reject John Kerry's job-killing policies. We believe we will carry Nevada.

"John Kerry has repeatedly brought his negativity and pessimism to Nevada and that has failed to resonate with an overwhelming majority of voters."

Sean Smith, campaign spokesman for Kerry, also said he wasn't surprised by the poll results.

"It shows that the race is a statistical tie, which is exactly what we're seeing with other polls and our own internal polls," Smith said. "This is great news for us.

"It shows that our message of a fresh start with the war in Iraq and here at home is resonating with voters."

The latest poll showed that Bush had a job approval rating of 51 percent and a disapproval rating of 44 percent. That's a slight improvement from the poll taken last month, which had the president's job approval rating at 50 percent, with 45 percent disapproving.

"A job approval rating of 51 percent is a good number for Bush but not a great number," Herzik said.

Of the 600 individuals polled, 222 were self-described Republicans, 220 were Democrats and 103 were independent. There were 306 men and 294 women. Sixty-five percent of those polled live in Clark County. The ideological split included 261 conservatives, 212 moderates and 114 liberals.

The poll showed Bush doing better than Kerry among men (48 percent to 37 percent), individuals aged 40 to 59 (51-37), individuals aged 60 and older (48-39), independents (45-41), conservatives (73-17) and rural county residents (58-29).

"I'd rather be ahead among the older voters than the younger voters because the older voters are more likely to vote," Herzik said.

Kerry fared better among women (45-42), individuals aged 18 to 39 (48-36), moderates (52-29), liberals (73-14), Clark County residents (43-42) and Washoe County residents (46-45).

"Some of the youth vote is the effect of the debates," UNLV political science professor David Damore said. "The Democrats are trying to energize the youth vote."

These margins are similar when leaning undecided voters are factored in, with Bush maintaining a 50-39 lead among men, and Kerry holding a 48-45 edge among women. Among independents, the Bush lead tightens to 46-44, but the president gains a 47-46 edge in Washoe County and expands his lead in the rural counties to 61-30. Kerry's lead in Clark County nudges up to 46-44 when the leaning undecided voters are considered.

"The differences between the men and the women are consistent with previous election cycles," Damore said. "Men are more concerned about national security and government management and women are more concerned about quality of life issues like eduction and health care."

Particularly noteworthy is that Republicans favor Bush over Kerry by a margin of 87 percent to 5 percent whereas Democrats choose Kerry over Bush by a margin of 79 percent to 9 percent. Those numbers suggest that Bush is stronger at drawing support from his base.

"Bush looks to be doing better among his base at this time," Stewart said. "I wouldn't say it is that significant, though. I wouldn't say Kerry has a crisis among his base because he's still getting eight out of 10 of the Democrats."

When it comes to the president's job approval rating, men approve of Bush's performance by a margin of 54 percent versus 41 percent who disapprove, and women are split at 47 percent each.

Bush gains a favorable rating among individuals aged 40 to 59 (56-39), 60 and older (50-44), independents (49-46), Clark County residents (48-47), Washoe residents (49-44) and rural residents (63-30).

But his disapproval rating is higher among undecided voters (39-35), individuals aged 18 to 39 (51-43) and moderates (53-40).

Nevada has been considered a presidential battleground state in the race between Bush and Kerry ever since Kerry, a Massachusetts senator, wrapped up the Democratic Party nomination last spring.

As many as 17 states were originally thought to be too close to call, but most political observers now have whittled down the number of battleground states to 10, with Nevada still included in that mix. As a result, Bush and Kerry and their surrogates have made repeated visits here and the state has been bombarded with televised political advertisements.

When Bush won the presidency in November 2000 he collected Nevada's four electoral votes by beating then-Vice President and Democratic challenger Al Gore by a margin of 49 percent to 46 percent. Because Nevada has since added a third congressional district, it now has five electoral votes, with 270 needed for victory in the Nov. 2 general election.

Stewart said the methodology used in the latest poll relies more on factors such as past voting patterns than on geography.

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