Columnist Jeff Haney: It’s a good time to play against Eagles and Patriots

Wednesday, Oct. 13, 2004 | 9:45 a.m.

Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Wednesday. Reach him at (702) 259-4041 or haney@lasvegassun.com.

Football fans and bettors alike just can't get enough of the Philadelphia Eagles' flashy new offensive tandem of quarterback Donovan McNabb and wide receiver Terrell Owens.

Four games into the National Football League season, the Eagles have won -- and covered the point spread -- each time they have taken the field.

Likewise, the New England Patriots have captured the imagination of fans, marching to a 19-game winning streak, while at the same time rewarding their backers at the betting windows. The Patriots are 4-0 straight up this season, 3-0-1 against the spread.

This means, of course, that now is the perfect time to start betting against -- yes, against -- both teams each week.

So says Fezzik, the Las Vegas professional gambler who goes by one name, much like the other Donovan. Historically in the NFL it has been profitable to bet against the previous season's Super Bowl winner, against teams unbeaten vs. the point spread, and against undefeated teams coming off a bye week, Fezzik pointed out. And this year should be no exception.

"Here we are a quarter of the way through the season, and these teams are undefeated against the point spread," Fezzik said. "I don't think any one of us believes that either team is going to finish the season better than five games above .500 against the spread."

Bettors who search for the best betting line available and play against teams such as Philadelphia and New England -- and possibly others such as the Indianapolis Colts (4-1 straight up, 4-0-1 against the spread) -- are likely to turn a profit through the rest of the season, Fezzik said.

The idea is that the betting public and, to some extent, oddsmakers overreact to such hot starts, which can create value in the line for gamblers taking the less popular side.

"You're definitely paying a big tax if you bet on these teams (such as the Eagles and Patriots) from now on, especially against the closing line," Fezzik said. "I think the (oddsmakers) at Las Vegas Sports Consultants really know what they're doing -- they send out a good number, maybe shade it a half-point or so, but the public takes care of the rest."

A good example comes in Sunday's game between the Eagles and the Carolina Panthers. Philly, off a bye, opened a 7 1/2-point favorite and the line already has been bet up to as high as 9 points in Las Vegas. Fezzik expects it to reach 10 points by game time, a number that carries solid value on Carolina, he said.

Fezzik, who's online at fezziksplace.com, also likes the Seattle Seahawks plus 4 points Sunday at New England. In fact, he thinks the Patriots were lucky to cover the spread as 12-point favorites this past Sunday against Miami. The Dolphins came out on top in several statistical categories, including passing yards, net yardage and first downs, but committed a couple of costly turnovers, losing 24-10.

"For anybody who bet the Patriots, that was like going all-in with ace-king (in Texas hold 'em) against ace-jack and getting beat when a jack comes on the river," Fezzik said. "It was a miracle cover."

Red Sox-Yankees

Leading up to the American League Championship Series between Boston and New York, Red Sox outfielder Johnny Damon told the Boston Globe this week: "No one is expecting us to win because of history."

Las Vegas oddsmakers would beg to differ.

The Red Sox opened a minus 140 favorite to win the series against the Yankees, and were quickly bet up to minus 165 in local sports books, according to Kenny White, the chief oddsmaker at Las Vegas Sports Consultants. (Minus 165 means bettors had to lay $1.65 for each $1 they were trying to win on the Red Sox. The Yankees were plus 145 underdogs, meaning backers would win $1.45, plus their original stake, for each $1 they bet.)

The Yankees had been listed at a shorter price than the Red Sox to win the World Series throughout much of the summer, until the Red Sox rallied late in the season.

"The Red Sox had that huge run in August," White said. "Going into the series they are definitely the team playing the best at the right time."

Some of the line movement in the series price was a result of the uncertain status of Yankees closer Mariano Rivera after two of his family members died in Panama, White said. Boston's status as favorite was also due in large part to its potent pitching combination of Curt Schilling and Pedro Martinez.

"Schilling has to be considered the top pitcher in the series, and Pedro is probably the second best," White said. After the Yankees' 10-7 victory in the opener Tuesday night (Schilling and the Red Sox went off as a minus 145 favorite in the game), major Las Vegas sports books were expected to post adjusted prices on the series today.

In the NLCS, the St. Louis Cardinals are about a minus 210 favorite to advance past the Houston Astros.

Stardust contest

Professional gambler Brent Carter edged handicapper Dave Malinsky this past weekend to advance to the second round of the Stardust Invitational football handicapping tournament. Both men went 3-4 against the spread in their seven selections, but Carter hit his best bet, the "under" in the USC-California game.

At 9 p.m. Friday at the Stardust, author and handicapper Trace Fields meets Rob Veno of the Vegas Sportswire in another first-round matchup.

The contest, in its 10th year, features 16 entrants competing in a single-elimination tournament for a $10,000 prize.

Notable

Miami's Dave Wannstedt is the favorite, at 2-1, to become the first NFL coach fired this season, but bettors have also been placing their money on Kansas City's Dick Vermeil and Tampa Bay's Jon Gruden in a proposition offered by offshore book Wager On Sports. Odds on Vermeil to be the first coach fired or to resign have fallen from 25-1 to 10-1, while odds on Gruden have dropped from 30-1 to 12-1. The list of odds on all 32 coaches can be found at wageronsports.com. Although oddball props such as these are not permitted in Nevada due to the state's gaming regulations, they can provide local sports fans and bettors with a unique perspective on newsworthy events. ...

Funniest line of the political season so far: Longtime Las Vegas gambler Arne Lang suggested the Review-Journal's editorial informing readers that President Bush won the first debate must have been written by Eugenia Williams, the notorious boxing judge of Lewis-Holyfield fame. Bush is a minus 150 favorite to win the November election at offshore sports books, having been as high as minus 230 before the debates. Betting on politics is not permitted in Nevada. ...

Even the Las Vegas Hilton, known for having the most extensive golf betting menu in the city, did not have Australian Andre Stolz on the board as an individual betting entry for the Michelin Championship PGA tour event. Stolz, who won the tournament Sunday at TPC at Summerlin, was part of the "field" (all others), which was a 5-2 shot at the Hilton sports book.

Jeff Haney

LAS VEGAS SUN

As the Philadelphia Eagles rack up victories while consistently covering the point spread, their stock has risen among gamblers and oddsmakers.

Here's a look at the current betting line, along with the opening line posted before the season, for each remaining game on the Eagles' regular-season schedule:

(Lines are from the Plaza sports book, which set lines on the entire National Football League regular-season schedule before the season started and adjusts them each week.)