Majority strongly opposed to Yucca

Thursday, Oct. 7, 2004 | 2:44 a.m.

The majority of very likely voters contacted in a statewide poll were opposed to a federal government plan to turn Yucca Mountain into the world's first permanent underground storage site for high-level nuclear waste.

But when it came down to ranking the importance of the Yucca Mountain issue in their vote for president, 57 percent said it would not be important, 36 percent said it would be one of several important issues, and only 5 percent said it would be the most important issue.

For those likely voters who said that the respective positions of Republican President Bush and Democratic challenger John Kerry on Yucca Mountain would influence their vote for president, a majority said they were more likely to vote for Kerry.

The statewide Las Vegas Sun/Channel 8 Eyewitness News/KNPR Nevada Public Radio poll of 600 very likely voters was taken Sept. 20 through Sept. 28 by the Washington-based polling firm Belden Russonello & Stewart. The poll had a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

When asked their position on having a nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, 90 miles northwest of Las Vegas, 56 percent of those polled said they strongly opposed the plan and 10 percent said they were somewhat opposed. Only 14 percent strongly favored the proposal and 13 percent were somewhat supportive.

"That's a pretty wide margin," Kate Stewart, a partner in the polling firm, said.

Those who were strongly opposed to the repository plan included a higher percentage of the women than the men (65 percent and 48 percent, respectively), a much higher percentage of Democrats than Republicans (81 and 33), and a much higher percentage of Kerry backers than Bush supporters (78 and 32).

"It's not that salient of an issue but it's clearly a partisan issue," UNLV political science professor David Damore said. "I'm surprised at how much the Republicans have conceded this issue."

While 58 percent of voters who identified themselves as independent said they were strongly opposed to the Yucca Mountain proposal -- placing them about halfway between the Democrats and Republicans -- 73 percent of the voters undecided in the presidential contest also expressed strong opposition. That result is more in line with the backers of Kerry, a Massachusetts senator.

Overall, 89 percent of likely voters who identified themselves as Democrats either strongly or somewhat opposed the repository plan, compared with 44 percent of the likely voters who identified themselves as Republicans.

Conversely, 46 percent of those who identified themselves as Republicans either strongly or somewhat supported Yucca Mountain as a repository, compared with 9 percent of the likely voters who identified themselves as Democrats.

Damore said he was surprised that there weren't more voters who identified themselves as Republicans expressing strong opposition to Yucca Mountain, given the opposition voiced by Gov. Kenny Guinn and Nevada Attorney General Brian Sandoval, both Republicans.

"Maybe they think it's inevitable and figure, 'Why fight it?' " Damore said of Republicans. "It doesn't jibe with the rhetoric you hear from Guinn and Sandoval."

The differences between Democrats and Republicans on Yucca Mountain were not surprising to Stewart.

"The interesting thing is that the Republican numbers are split," she said. "Right now I think the differences between Democrats and Republicans probably have to do more with Bush and Kerry's position on this."

The poll informed likely voters that President Bush has said he approves of sending nuclear waste to Yucca Mountain and that Kerry has said that, if elected president, he would not send the waste to Yucca Mountain. Of those polled, 48 percent said that their presidential vote would not hinge on the positions Bush and Kerry have taken on Yucca Mountain.

But 26 percent of those polled said the differences on this issue would make them much more likely to vote for Kerry, and 6 percent said they would be somewhat more likely to vote for the Democrat. Only 13 percent said they would be much more likely to vote for Bush because of the Yucca Mountain issue and 4 percent said they would be somewhat more likely to back the president.

"This is a potential vulnerability for Bush and a place where Kerry can take advantage," Stewart said. "There are people who feel strongly about this issue and they're leaning toward Kerry at the moment. Kerry can talk about how Bush is out of touch with the needs of Nevada voters.

"But I don't think this is an issue a lot of people will base their vote on."

UNR political science professor Eric Herzik said the results of this poll track with others he has seen on Yucca Mountain.

"These numbers generally track well for Democrats," Herzik said. "Yucca Mountain was never an issue of strength for Republicans. It will only hurt Republicans. The question is how much?

"The Democrats think, based on their advertising, that this is a big issue. I think that that has been overstated. Issues like the war in Iraq and health care will be much more important factors."

Bush told a Las Vegas audience in August that his decision to approve Yucca Mountain as the nation's high-level nuclear waste repository was based on sound science. But Damore said the poll shows that Kerry has the edge on this issue in Nevada.

"What the Kerry campaign hasn't done is tie this more to Bush's credibility," Damore said.

Among voters who identified themselves as independent, 27 percent said they would be much more likely to vote for Kerry because of his Yucca Mountain position, but only 10 percent said they would be much more likely to vote for Bush.

Among undecided voters, 20 percent said they would be much more likely to vote for Kerry, compared with only 2 percent who said they would be much more likely to vote for Bush. In Clark County, 30 percent were much more likely to go with Kerry and only 11 percent were much more likely to vote for the president.

"This is one of those issues that will play on the edges," Stewart said. "For a segment of independents and undecided voters this could tip the balance for Kerry."