Columnist Jeff Haney: Place your bets now on possible BCS matchups

Wednesday, Nov. 24, 2004 | 9:20 a.m.

Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Wednesday. Reach him at (702) 259-4041 or haney@lasvegassun.com.

In the latest edition of the Bowl Championship Series standings released this week, Oklahoma and Auburn were No. 2 and No. 3, jockeying for position in the race to play Southern Cal, the clear leader.

As far as sports gamblers are concerned, that battle between Oklahoma and Auburn is virtually a dead heat.

In special matchup propositions at the Las Vegas Hilton sports book, USC is favored by 4 1/2 points against Oklahoma, and by 4 1/2 points against Auburn in the Orange Bowl, scheduled for Tuesday, Jan. 4, to decide the BCS title and at least a share of the national championship.

In another possible Orange Bowl matchup, Oklahoma against Auburn is listed as a pick 'em. That game could take place if USC falls from its No. 1 perch by losing one of its two remaining games, against Notre Dame Saturday or at UCLA on Dec. 4.

If bettors make a wager on any of the Orange Bowl matchups and those particular teams do not meet in the game, their money is refunded.

"According to our power ratings, Oklahoma and Auburn are really, really close," Las Vegas Hilton sports book assistant manager Jeff Sherman said, whereas USC is decidedly a cut above.

When the Hilton first posted the three possible matchups two weeks ago, USC opened a 4-point favorite against Oklahoma, and a 6-point favorite against Auburn. Oklahoma was a 2-point favorite against Auburn on the opening line before the number was hammered down to pick 'em by bettors.

The oddsmaking team at the Hilton did not have much dissension in creating the lines, Sherman said, as each linemaker involved saw USC as a favorite of between 3 and 6 points against either top contender.

"A few of us talked about it; we hashed it out, and it's come out right in the middle," Sherman said. "They (bettors) have been taking a little bit of Auburn."

For those tickets to cash, however, the Tigers first have to make it to the big game, a proposition that must be considered a bit of a long shot. If all three of the BCS leaders win their remaining games, USC and Oklahoma will likely meet in the championship game.

The Trojans (10-0, 7-0 Pac-10, 6-4 against the spread) are favored by anywhere from 21 1/2 to 24 points against the Irish in Las Vegas sports books in a storied rivalry that traditionally has a much smaller point spread. The bloated line this year reflects USC's status as a consensus No. 1 team as well as the perception that college football teams in the national championship picture must win impressively to maintain their spot, or move up, in the BSC standings.

Oklahoma (11-0, 8-0 Big 12, 3-8 ATS) will play Iowa State or Colorado in the Big 12 championship game Dec. 4. While OU earned praise in some quarters for its "resounding" 35-0 victory against Baylor on Saturday, it's worth noting that the Sooners failed to cover the closing number of 37 points in that game (although some early bettors were able to lay only 34 or 35 points, securing a win or a push).

Auburn (11-0, 8-0 SEC, 7-3 ATS) also has one game remaining, against Tennessee for the Southeastern Conference crown Dec. 4. At Tennessee on Oct. 2, Auburn went off as a small underdog before recording a 34-10 victory. The Tigers are certain to be favored Dec. 4, perhaps even with a few extra points built into the line, as some BCS watchers have speculated Auburn must win by three touchdowns or more in order to have any chance of advancing in the standings.

Betting lines on the Big 12 and SEC title games are expected to be posted in Las Vegas sports books Monday.

"There is a lot of sentiment out there for Auburn, but Oklahoma will probably get in if they win," Sherman said.

Although Auburn and Oklahoma appear evenly matched in head-to-head propositions, OU is listed at a slightly shorter price (2-1) than Auburn (5-2) to win the Orange Bowl. The discrepancy reflects the greater likelihood that Oklahoma will play in the game.

USC is listed at minus 180 to win the Orange Bowl; also on the board at the Hilton are Texas (50-1), Utah (50-1) and California (20).

"We kept it to three teams in the matchups because for anyone else to get in, at least two of those (top) teams would have to lose," Sherman said.

For a long shot such as Boise State to sneak into the title game, catastrophe would have to befall the rest of the leading teams. Bettors willing to take a flier on Boise, however, can find the Broncos listed at 75-1 at the Golden Nugget downtown.

Expanded show

"You Can Bet On It," the popular gambling-oriented radio show hosted by Larry Grossman for the past 15 years, will now air year-round, Grossman said Monday. Previously the show operated on a six-month schedule, airing from early August through early February.

From February through August, the program will be hosted by Fezzik, a Las Vegas professional gambler who appears regularly on the show. The expanded show will feature a roster of guests as well as coverage of major events such as March Madness and the World Series of Poker.

Grossman will remain the producer of the program, which airs from 2 to 3 p.m. weekdays on 1460-AM and is archived online at cardplayer.com.

Stardust update

Fezzik goes against Big Al McMordie at 9 p.m. Friday in the second round of the $10,000 Stardust Invitational football handicapping tournament.

This past weekend, Mike Orkin went 2-4-1 against the spread in his seven selections but advanced past Papa Joe Chevalier (2-5) in a subpar week for both men. In a tiebreaking round, Cesar Robaina and Jimmy Vaccaro fought to another deadlock (4-2-1, both hitting their best bet) and will go at it again this week.