Friday, Nov. 12, 2004 | 10:02 a.m.
WHEN UNLV HAS THE BALL
UNLV run offense vs. Colorado State run defense
Senior tailback Dominique Dorsey leads the Mountain West Conference with an average of 125.1 yards per game and needs 451 yards rushing in his final two games to break the school career mark of 3,149 yards set by Mike Thomas (1973-74). He'll be going against a young and injury-plagued Colorado State defense that has struggled badly against the run this year, allowing a conference-worst 209.7 yards per game on the ground and 5.2 yards per carry. However, if it is snowing or raining the Rams might be able to gear their defense up to stopping the run. All signs, though, point to Dorsey getting his seventh 100-yard rushing game of the season ... and maybe a whole lot more.
Edge: UNLV.
UNLV pass offense vs. Colorado State pass defense
Only Utah has a higher rated pass defense in the Mountain West Conference than the Rams, who allow just 202.4 yards per game through the air. That doesn't bode well for Shane Steichen and a UNLV passing offense that ranks 94th in the nation. The weather also could be a major problem with temperatures expected to be in the low 30s and a chance of snow flurries. The good news for the Rebels is that senior wide receiver Earvin Johnson, who needs just 14 receptions to break the school career receiving mark, is improving daily from a nasty dislocated ring finger.
Edge: Colorado State
WHEN COLORADO STATE HAS THE BALL
Colorado State run offense vs. UNLV run defense
The Rams as a team have rushed for just 991 yards this season, which is 135 yards less than Dorsey has rushed for. UNLV's run defense, led by linebackers Adam Seward and Ryan Claridge, has been erratic. Junior Uldis Jaunarajs, who started most of the season for the Rams, is doubtful with a concussion, which means junior Jimmy Green, who is averaging a healthy 76.2 yards per game since returning from a high ankle sprain, will see the majority of time at running back for the Rams. Don't be surprised if highly touted freshman Kyle Bell also gets a good look as Sonny Lubick prepares for 2005.
Edge: UNLV
Colorado State pass offense vs. UNLV pass defense
The Rams may have had the most potent passing attack in the conference before junior quarterback Justin Holland went down with a season-ending broken leg last month at San Diego State. True freshman Caleb Hanie, who has drawn comparisons to former CSU star Bradlee Van Pelt for his running ability, will start his fourth straight game and is completing just 53.8 percent (56 of 104) of his passes for 764 yards, five touchdowns and six interceptions. However, Hanie has a pair of NFL-caliber receivers to throw to in H-Back Joel Dreessen and all-MWC receiver David Anderson (51 catches for 854 yards, 2 TDs). UNLV's secondary will be without suspended starting cornerback Ruschard Dodd-Masters.
Edge: Colorado State
SPECIAL TEAMS
UNLV senior Gary Cook (43.9 avg.) and Colorado State's Jeff Babcock (43.6 avg.) are almost dead even in punting and Babcock (12 of 15) has a very slight edge over Rebels freshman Sergio Aguayo (9 of 13) in field goal kicking. The Rebels get the nod in kickoff returns and, believe it or not, even in punt returns thanks to the return of Donell Wheaton. UNLV ranks 107th nationally in punt returns (5.1 avg.) while Colorado State is 112th (4.2 avg.).
Edge: UNLV
INTANGIBLES
Neither team has anything to play for other than, gasp, pride. This is the first time since 1993 that the Rams find themselves out of the running for a winning season. UNLV, on the other hand, is used to it.
Edge: UNLV
COACHING
John Robinson and Sonny Lubick both will end up in the College Football Hall of Fame in the not-so-distant future. Both have suffered through disappointing seasons that started off with over-ambitious schedules and featured more than their share of key injuries.
Edge: Even.
KEYS TO VICTORY
To win, UNLV must ...
1. Run the football. The Rams haven't been able to stop the run all season, which means Dorsey should be able to put up some monster numbers.
2. Start fast. The Rebels need a confidence boost after blowing last week's triple-overtime game to Wyoming. Plus, you want to have the early lead in case the weather gets nasty.
3. Play with some smarts. This should be pretty self-explanatory after last week's 22-penalty debacle against Wyoming.
To win, Colorado State must ...
1. Avoid turnovers. The Rams rank 114th out of 117 Division I-A teams in turnover margin (minus-1.56 per game).
2. Run effectively. With cold and snowy weather a possibility, the Rams probably won't be able to rely on their passing game as much as they have earlier this season.
3. Move forward. Sure, this will go down as only Sonny Lubick's second losing season in 12 years in Fort Collins. But you can't dwell on that now.
THE PICK
Colorado State 27, UNLV 24.
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