Ex-security adviser: Next six months key

Dan Kulin

Wednesday, Nov. 10, 2004 | 9:49 a.m.

The Bush administration could see a shift in public opinion over the war in Iraq unless is shows a series of successes in the next year, a former national security adviser told a politically savvy Las Vegas audience Tuesday night.

Tyrus W. "Ty" Cobb, a retired Army colonel and a former national security adviser to former President Ronald Reagan, said there is a concern that given the American publics "history of impatience," public opinion could shift if the administration doesnt show "visible progress in improving the security situation."

"This means conducting elections, isolating the insurgency, and training the Iraqis to be a viable force," he said, adding that he thought progress had been made and it could be done.

Cobb spoke at Turnberry Place Towers to about 50 members of the Nevada Committee on Foreign Relations, a nonpartisan, nonprofit educational group that regularly hosts speakers on a wide range of national and international issues.

"The evolution of things in Iraq are that at the present time things are stalemated," Cobb said. "But I think over the next six months there will be a strong desire to see successes."

Without significant wins against the Iraqi insurgency and the elections planned for January, Cobb said he expects there would be calls for the U.S. to "cut and run" from Iraq -- though they wouldn't use those words to describe a withdrawal.

"Bush doesn't want to be LBJ," Cobb said referring to former President Lyndon Johnson. "He was so wrapped up in Vietnam that he couldn't pursue his domestic agenda."

Cobb worked for the Reagan administration from 1983 to 1988, focusing on the former Soviet Union, Western Europe and Canada.

Sig Rogich, the local campaign adviser and advertising executive who was a presidential adviser to Reagan and the senior Bush, introduced Cobb to the Las Vegas group. Rogich said he was surprised by Cobb's assessment, "but he knows better than I do."

Rogich, president of the Rogich Communications Group, said he thinks six months is too short a time frame for the Bush administration to be faced with the dilemma Cobb described, but added that he thinks the current U.S. actions in Fallujah will set the tone for the rest of the war.

Patrick Clary, president of the committee that was host to Cobb, said that although he's a Democrat and Cobb is a Republican, he largely agreed with the speaker's assessment of the war.

"There is a six-month window. It has to get better instead of getting worse. If there is no progress we may have to get out of there," Clary said. "I think Ty Cobb is very realistic in saying we may have to get out because the American people will not tolerate a continuing situation."

In addition to Iraq, Cobb spoke about national security in general.

He said global terrorism led by extremist Muslim groups is the No. 1 threat the country faces.

For a time recently, America's war on terrorism appeared to be going well, he said, noting American successes in overthrowing the Taliban in Afghanistan, Libya's turn from rogue nation, Saudi Arabia acknowledging an internal threat, and the initial success in Iraq.

But, America's efforts don't appear wholly successful anymore with the continuing problems in Iraq fighting the insurgency, which he said is led by followers of ousted Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein "who have nothing to gain from a democracy."

Cobb also said nuclear proliferation is a major security threat, adding that Russia's nuclear material "is not secure."

The nation's dependence on foreign oil is another problem, he said, and the country should look for alternative fuels.

Cobb, a Reno resident who runs a political consulting firm called Northern Nevada Network, spoke for about 45 minutes and then took questions for another 30 minutes.

In response to one question, Cobb said the U.S. has taken on too much of the burden of dealing with international crisis. But said that as the world's only superpower after the fall of the Soviet Union there weren't other nations to step into the role of world policeman.

Cobb said that in the coming years he expects others -- possibly China, the United Nations, or France -- to take on some of that burden.