Friday, Nov. 5, 2004 | 4:18 a.m.
WEEKEND EDITION
November 6 - 7, 2004
When Nevadans awoke after Tuesday's election, they found the power matrix here, as in Washington, had barely changed.
The congressional delegation was intact. The Republicans still controlled the state Senate, the Democrats the Assembly. Lynette Boggs McDonald was still a Clark County commissioner.
This was the Status Quo Election, from the top on down.
Nevada remains a reliably red state, although some of the blood spilled here Tuesday was Republican. A party-switching state senator (Ray Shaffer) suddenly in an unfriendly district and two inconsequential GOP assemblymen (Ron Knecht and Don Gustavson) lost their elected jobs Tuesday. But not a single Democratic incumbent lost or came close to losing -- not in federal races or legislative contests. Those that were supposed to win before Nov. 2 arose on Nov. 3 with their titles intact; those that didn't win were left contemplating a return to private life.
The real deck-shuffling occurred in the primary with the inevitable demise of indictment-burdened County Commissioner Mary Kincaid-Chauncey and the defeats of two conscientious and tireless state lawmakers. One (Sen. Ann O'Connell) got caught up in a legislative moment, said "what the heck" to a protest tax bill, and paid with her seat. Another (Sen. Ray Rawson) was ground up by a relentless opponent whose anti-tax persona and shoe leather probably made the devout Mormon incumbent want to have a few beers.
The three GOP lawmakers who lost Tuesday have never seen the word "influential" in proximity to their names. Shaffer was an opportunistic pol who switched parties so he could garner a chairmanship (the all-unimportant Transportation Committee) and went from being a Democratic backbencher to a Republican backbencher. Knecht decided it was a bright idea to fulminate against government in a state capital district teeming with government workers, and Gustavson was a one-dimensional lawmaker who knew how to say "no" but not much else. None of them will be missed.
The real story of Campaign '04 was what didn't happen, the dogs that didn't bark. Yucca Mountain was a political molehill -- we Fourth Estaters, including the national media, built it up, but the voters apparently didn't see it. The anti-tax revolution occurred only in the minds of a few frothing Republicans, ironically claiming only the tax-averse O'Connell, who signed onto a $1.6 billion bill to protest the gross receipts tax and lived to regret it. And the great, apocalyptic showdown between the doctors and the lawyers turned into a rout as the physicians used spin and money to fuel an impressive ad campaign while the attorneys tried legal legerdemain and patronizing palaver that the public soundly rejected.
All that talk of the Democrats tapping into the burgeoning Hispanic population in Southern Nevada never really materialized, either -- or at least it didn't affect the presidential campaign here. Indeed, while the Democratic machine purred nicely in key areas, guaranteeing legislative incumbents huge victory margins, it didn't change the results of the last presidential race or the previous contest for the only competitive congressional seat.
In the end, Tom Gallagher did not fare much better than Dario Herrera did in 2002 against Jon Porter, barely cracking the 40 percent barrier. And Kerry actually fared worse than Al Gore did in Clark County -- Gore defeated Bush in Southern Nevada by 6.5 percentage points in 2000 while Kerry only beat the president by just under 5 percentage points last week. So much for The House That Harry Built -- it might have helped propel Sen. Reid to a record victory but the touted trifecta of the minimum wage initiative, the revitalized Democratic organization and the voter registration surge did not pay off Tuesday at the ballot box.
After a season engorged with breathless, hyperventilating news releases, both parties here showed immediately after the election that they either don't get it or are delusional.
The state Democrats put out a news release celebrating "'victories in state races," as if the legislative gains were a gleaming silver lining. But the cloud itself was so dark everywhere else that no one was going to even see the silvery light the Democrats tried to shine.
State GOP Chairman Earlene Forsythe was equally in denial as she boasted about how it is "gratifying to know that a small state like Nevada could play such an important role in the election of 2004." Actually, despite all the attention lavished on the state, Nevada did not matter -- the president didn't need the state to get to 270.
So whither the political dynamic now that Campaign '04 is about to slip into Campaign '06 with an irritation called Session '05 sandwiched in-between (and Session '04, too, if someone doesn't find Controller Kathy Augustine a job soon and get her to resign)? Let's take a look at the federal, state and local arenas:
Federal
The ineluctable truth about Tuesday's results is simple: Barring any major missteps, none of Nevada's members of Congress can be beaten. Rep. Shelley Berkley (66 percent) and Rep. Jim Gibbons (67 percent) did not have serious threats and never will -- the opposition has surrendered. But as much as the Democrats don't want to hear it, GOP Rep. Jon Porter's 14-point win indicates he, too, has that seat for as long as he wants it.
Porter's district does not have the daunting demographics of those of Berkley and Gibbons. But a closer look at the underlying trends in that area show that Republicans consistently have outperformed the Democrats there. And it is an evolving, suburban congressional district, which favors the GOP.
Tom Gallagher, the ex-Park Place CEO, may have been a flawed candidate. But it is a flawed premise to think that any Democrat can win here. Get used to the delegation, folks -- the trio is here to stay, at least until Jim Gibbons runs for governor and a Republican (Secretary of State Dean Heller, perhaps) will take his place.
Sen. Harry Reid's smashing victory (60 percent) over anti-gay marriage activist Richard Ziser doesn't reveal much. Reid won this race when he scared Gibbons out months ago. The only question was how much of a pest Ziser would be on Reid's path to a fourth term. Answer: Not much.
Reid's ascension to Tom Daschle's leadership job is historic -- never has a Nevadan led a major party and the new post arguably will make Reid the most powerful Democrat in Washington.
What he does with that clout greatly will influence how long the post-election cries for bipartisanship will last. Reid is equally comfortable as a partisan attack dog and bridge-building, nonpartisan conciliator. That is how a senator from a small state gets to become leader of the Senate Democrats.
How much will the new post help Nevada? It's hard to imagine Reid, who is a porkmeister extraordinaire, could bring home more bacon. But if he can increase the state's cholesterol level, he will. And this gives him more opportunity to deal directly with President Bush and his House counterparts. The president probably will forgive Reid his constant pounding on him over Yucca Mountain as the product of a local political imperative.
As for the dump, former President Bill Clinton almost had it right when he told the Sun just before the balloting that the election was "an up or down referendum on Yucca Mountain." Not really. Most Nevadans oppose the dump. But what the election showed -- again -- was that it is not a top of mind issue, despite some questionable exit polling that indicated it drove some new voters.
So much hype was given to Yucca Mountain in the media and especially in television ads -- Reid and Kerry and Gallagher all did ads on the issue -- that people knew what the score was. But they chose Bush anyhow, showing that Nevadans, like people everywhere, were more concerned with Iraq and the economy.
Yucca Mountain Fatigue Syndrome (YMFS) is no longer a theory. It's a fact, reaffirmed by the election. And the next step is also guaranteed: More talk of negotiating for benefits, which will set off a political paroxysm.
It also must be said one last time how pathetic the state's GOP elite were on this issue this cycle. For the first time in history, the state had leverage because of how important Nevada was to both campaigns. But no one even tried to extract a promise or a concession from President Bush. Instead they mouthed banalities about agreeing to disagree and how straight Bush had been with the state. They should all pay a political price for not playing carpe diem politics here -- but they will not because YMFS will save them.
State
Assembly Democrats could argue that they received a mandate from voters Tuesday as they took over three seats previously held by Republicans and none of their incumbents had a close race. And while some, especially Republicans, forecast doom for a Democratic caucus that unanimously voted for virtually every tax increase proposed in Sessions '03, they are now closer to a veto-proof majority (now that would have been useful 18 months ago).
The story here is the impact of get-out-the-vote efforts and the Democratic success in redistricting in 2001, which allowed the party to make its incumbents more secure. And the tax increase, which few people actually feel, was a non-event -- in fact, four of the so-called Fearless/Mean Fifteen of the Republican Assembly Caucus will not be returning. Two -- Knecht and Gustavson -- were booted by voters and two more -- David Brown and Walter Andonov -- chose not to run again. The GOP caucus will be decidedly less conservative as Bob Seale, who replaced Andonov, is a moderate and future caucus leader, and Scott Sibley showed no signs of being an ultra righty.
The real question is whether Minority Leader Lynn Hettrick will face a challenge after the disaster of Campaign '04. Hettrick and others had all but considered it a foregone conclusion that the Republicans would take control, a stupendous miscalculation. Will the caucus decide that Hettrick, who perfectly fits the most famous Durocherism about nice guys, should step aside for someone a little more politically calculating and savvy? Or is Hettrick the perfect man to reach out to the other side in what is being played, as on the national scene, as a new era of bipartisanship?
Speaker Richard Perkins, whom the Republicans foolishly tried to take out and didn't come close, may be careful what he wished for as he will have to herd three new cattle. Holding 26 together is slightly more difficult than holding 23 -- and he also has to choose new chairmen of key committees. Wendell Williams is gone from education. Mark Manendo will not chair government affairs again after the sexual harassment charges of Session '03.
Perkins will have to negotiate an interesting thicket, too -- working with Gov. Kenny Guinn, who will be looking to erase memories of the taxing session of '03, and setting a Democratic agenda that will pave the way for a planned gubernatorial run. He may be looking to teach the Republicans a lesson for their campaign hubris. But they will be waiting to pounce at every turn to help their all-but-announced contender for Guinn's job, Jim Gibbons.
Down the hall, Bill Raggio already has proved the post-Session '03 obituaries wrong and retained his scepter as majority leader and Finance Committee chairman. One reason is the loss of outspoken Southern Nevada power advocate Ann O'Connell and the other is the play-ball attitude of newcomer Bob Beers, who now is wearing a Great Conciliator mask as he accepts Raggio's brilliant offer of Finance vice-chairman. And Dennis Nolan, who once called for Raggio to step down when he was running against the Raggio-anointed Richard Bunker, now is the master's lieutenant as assistant majority leader.
Without O'Connell, the caucus rebels -- Barbara Cegavske, Sandra Tiffany and Mark Amodei -- will have less room to maneuver. And Raggio may have to spend less time fending off a coup and more time on legislating.
The Democrats will have slightly more leverage by increasing their numbers by one. Minority Leader Dina Titus also will have the Perkins problem -- trying to be leader while also attending to the politics of running for governor. Raggio will be looking to help Gibbons every chance he gets.
Titus actually has two new caucus members -- Steven Horsford replaced Joe Neal and Lee ousted Shaffer. Those freshmen will be vying for credibility and impact, with Horsford, a bright, rising star, having the edge over John Lee, who can barely hide his ambition.
It's unlikely the session will be as rancorous as last year as Guinn is likely to begin to pursue a legacy agenda. But with the governor's race already having begun and some budget problems sure to surface, smooth sailing also is hardly likely.
So is the message from the Clark County Commission results that growth is good, that developers reign supreme? Incumbent Lynette Boggs McDonald and Chip Maxfield were portrayed as shills for the building community and both retained their seats. Boggs McDonald's opponent, David Goldwater, actually ran a slow-growth campaign. Perhaps the story here is that anything will still go.
Not exactly. Goldwater, pounded from Day One by Boggs McDonald on a variety of personal issues, never was able to have the discussion. And Maxfield had enough money to overwhelm his aggressive but financially strapped challenger, Jerry Tao.
The lesson here is that it remains extraordinarily difficult to unseat a sitting county commissioner because of the access to Strip and developer money -- unless it is in a primary and unless the incumbent happens to have a federal indictment. Mary Kincaid-Chauncey never had a chance, it turns out, and Assemblyman Tom Collins was in the right place at the right time with the right demographics. North Las Vegas Councilwoman Shari Buck was a quality candidate and ran a fine campaign -- she just had the wrong party affiliation, as 10,000 more Democrats than Republicans are registered in the district.
The stench of Operation G-Sting will hang over the commission for years, though, especially because it will be a long time before anyone goes to trial and the FBI still seems to be looking into other avenues of corruption. Trying to navigate through the public distrust of local governments with all of the ethical issues that have been raised in the last few years will continue to be a challenge.
Collins is a bit of a wild card on the commission. He surely will be more outspoken than Kincaid-Chauncey and may not be as supportive of Manager Thom Reilly's attempt to change the culture of government benefits and salaries. But this is a board now where the locus of power is with Bruce Woodbury, Maxfield, Boggs McDonald and Rory Reid, who will continue to form a coalition on many issues. Reid, unlike the others, may be a Democrat, but he is a pragmatist, too.
Boggs McDonald, who is as ambitious as anyone, will be a force on the board now that she has won re-election. But some Democrats believe she will be ripe for the picking with a candidate without Goldwater's baggage. Maybe. But she certainly proved in this election that she is willing to do what it takes -- both in fund raising and campaign bludgeoning. I wouldn't bet against her.
So the status quo reigns for now in Clark County and Nevada. But for how long? Campaign '06 began the day after Campaign '04 ended and two years from now, we will have a new governor, probably one new congressman and probably half the constitutional officers will have either run for some other office or been forced from office. The County Commission may be changing, too, as yet another legislator, Assemblywoman Chris Giunchigliani, covets Myrna Williams' seat.
And who knows? If Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman listens to his ego instead of his heart (and his wife), he may run for governor and win, meaning we will have a new mayor, too.
The prospects are deliciously intriguing. I can hardly wait.
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