Four-year comparison helped Bush in Nevada, poll shows

Wednesday, Nov. 3, 2004 | 11:19 a.m.

A comparatively flush economy in a state in which an exit poll found most Nevada voters described their family financial situation as the same or better than four years ago might have tipped the balance for President Bush in Nevada, an analyst said Wednesday.

"The economy is doing much better in Nevada than the rest of the U.S.," said Keith Schwer, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas. "You would expect people would tend to vote for the incumbent. That could well account for the narrow margin in Nevada."

Bush edged Kerry by 21,567 votes, winning another four years by a percentage of 50-48, according to unofficial final returns from the Nevada secretary of state.

Terrorism, Iraq and moral values mattered most to voters as they picked Bush over Democratic challenger Sen. John Kerry, according to an exit poll conducted for The Associated Press in Nevada.

While Bush drew support from 88 percent of those who cited terrorism, and three of four who called moral values most important, Kerry attracted 78 percent of those who said they were most concerned about Iraq.

The Democratic senator from Massachusetts also drew support from those who called health care and education the top issues.

Nevada's unemployment rate was 3.9 percent in September, compared with 5.4 percent nationally, and Schwer said job growth from September 2003 to September 2004 was 4.6 percent in Nevada, compared with 1.3 percent nationwide.

That led three-fourths of voters polled to describe the state's economy as good or excellent, and 76 percent to call their family's financial situation as good or better now than four years ago.

The poll conducted Tuesday for AP and television networks by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International questioned 2,189 voters, including 465 absentee voters interviewed by telephone during the past week. Their responses were weighted to represent 21 percent of the total sample - their estimated proportion of the state's electorate. Results were subject to sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, higher for subgroups.

More than half of those who called Nevada's economy good and 81 percent of those who called the state economy excellent went for Bush.

One-third of voters described themselves as conservative, and 81 percent of them went for Bush.

Kerry, by comparison, won 55 percent of those who identified themselves as moderates, and did well with voters concerned most about health care, jobs and the economy and education. He also got support from families that make under $50,000 a year, and from those who said they wanted change or those who disapproved of the Iraq war.

Voters were split on the president's performance. Both candidates held their party bases.

Two-thirds of voters called federal plans for a national nuclear waste repository in Nevada a factor in their decision-making. But 52 percent of those who called it "somewhat" important, and 75 percent of those who called it "not too" important went for the president who approved the Yucca Mountain project in 2002.

Bush drew support from married voters and the 90 percent who said religious faith and strong leadership mattered most in a president. Eighty percent of those who said clear stands on issues mattered backed Bush.

Solidly Republican rural Nevada voters went 64 percent for Bush, while Kerry drew more support in the state's urban areas around Las Vegas and Reno. Clark County went Democratic in the presidential election of 2000, while Reno voted Republican.

About one in seven voters said they were voting in their first election, and one in five said they'd moved to Nevada in the past four years.

Democratic U.S. Sen. Harry Reid drew 24 percent of the Republicans who voted in his race over underfunded Republican challenger Richard Ziser. Reid was aided by crossover voting from GOP voters in a state where Republicans have a narrow 4,000-voter edge in registration.